Rawffay.sol

Web3, Crypto. $Sol maxi On the hunt for alpha all the time. ~•|CM|👀// Dm for promo/collabs.🤝

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

@dapersiantrader Edging 80k

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

@CCPool_Daniel Still no long??

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP JUST DE-ESCALATED WITH IRAN

Not through State Department.
Not through Switzerland.
Not through Qatar.

Through Pakistan. At 1am.

Iran’s ambassador received the message overnight: No attack. Exercise restraint.

Brent crashed 2.5% within hours.

Why Pakistan? 959 kilometers of shared border. ISI-IRGC channels predating both governments. Geographic inevitability with plausible deniability.

Qatar offers neutrality. Pakistan offers something better: a channel where both sides claim they never talked.

Trump says he told them to behave. Iran says they showed strength. Neither capitulates publicly. The architecture lets both narratives survive.

72 hours ago the world watched Diego Garcia. Six B-2 bombers. Half the combat-ready stealth fleet. GBU-57 bunker busters designed for Fordow.

Wing of Zion evacuated to Greece. The exact pattern preceding June 2025.

Every signal pointed to war.

Then a message moved through Islamabad at 1am and the calculus inverted.

The buildup was never preparation for strikes.

It was leverage for this moment.

Trump proved in June he would act. Seven B-2s. Fourteen bunker busters. Largest strike of its kind in history.

Now he is proving he can restrain.

Markets understood instantly. WTI settled $60.11. CFTC longs unwinding. Another $4-6 downside as positioning catches reality.

But here is what oil bulls are missing.

Lower prices compress Iranian revenues 10-15%. Lower revenues deepen the fiscal crisis. Deeper crisis accelerates pressure on a regime already bleeding in the streets.

Trump does not need bombs.

Price compression does the work.

The 25% tariffs on Iran’s trading partners complete the architecture. China and India face $70 billion exposure. Economic strangulation without a single Tomahawk.

The protesters are still dying. The rial is still collapsing.

But the bombs are not coming.

Not because Washington is weak.

Because Washington already won.

The art of the deal. Executed at 1am. Through a border that cannot be ignored.

[TraderJB @TraderJBx]

Current local accumulation range on $CVX.

A clean break above the range high would dramatically increase the odds of a new upward trend.

#ConvexFinance

[Chart Champions @ChartChampions]

Candlesticks: The Foundation of Reading Price

Most traders look at candles without understanding what they actually reveal.

Candlesticks aren’t drawings.
They’re behaviour.

Let's break them down properly.
Bookmark this thread. 👇

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

@LieutenantPonzi Bahahhahahaha

[TraderJB @TraderJBx]

BITCOIN: THE 12-MONTH RUNNING FLAT SCENARIO

My current $BTC wave count (quoted post) interprets the impulse from ~$74K as Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (5), with the correction since May 2025 being Minor wave 2 (meaning three Minor waves remain to complete this Cycle). However, 2025’s price action has revealed another possibility: that we have actually been in a huge correction since December 2024, forming a corrective pattern known as a “running flat.”

Arguments & Confluence

1) There is a valid alternate count in which the rally from ~$74K is a 5-3-5 inverted zigzag that fits the B wave of a flat. In this scenario, what I currently label as Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (5) is actually the initial five-wave leg of that inverted B-wave. Wave A would then be the December 2024–April 2025 decline, and the current sharp downside impulse would be wave C.

2) Another valid interpretation views the entire structure as a Flat–Zigzag–Flat combination; however, as of today, the overall shape still strongly resembles a classic running flat.

3) If this running flat is indeed unfolding, it would be labeled Intermediate wave (4) (see attached chart). Its duration (approaching 12 months) is longer than the Minor wave 4 of Intermediate wave (3) (2024’s correction), which is what one would expect from a correction of one higher degree.

4) The retracement from the ATH is currently –36%, exceeding the –33% correction seen in 2024—again consistent with a wave of higher degree.

5) BTC priced in $GOLD is forming a clear ~12-month zigzag as Intermediate wave (4) (see this post: https://t.co/56YsmmBYVU).

6) Looks like $TOTAL is also tracing an ~12-month running flat for its Intermediate wave (4) (see attached chart).

Implications

1) If this count is correct, there are not three Minor waves left to complete this Cycle wave, but five — constituting the entire Intermediate wave (5).

2) The fact that this would be the final Intermediate wave within the final Primary wave of the current Cycle wave — just before completing Bitcoin’s entire Supercycle wave (I) — suggests that the next impulsive move could be the most explosive in Bitcoin’s history.

3) “The bigger the consolidation, the bigger the expansion.” Such a prolonged correction strongly supports the scenario described above.

4) The 4-year cycle theory would finally be invalidated — as an Elliott Wave analyst, I’ve never believed in it anyway.

Signs that this scenario is playing out

1) The entire Intermediate wave (5) exhibits an ~1.6%/day Average Ascent Velocity (AAV), or surpassing that of Intermediate wave (3) (see this post: https://t.co/NKcuEFIPix).

2) Retail confusion turns into euphoria: people start asking “WTF is happening?”.

3) Classic top indicators (e.g., MVRV Z-Score, monthly LMACD, etc.) begin flashing signals after five upward waves.

4) Altcoins explode upward after #Bitcoin’s impulse peaks, producing an extremely powerful post-BTC-top altseason.

Invalidation

Breaking below $74k (origin of the running flat’s B wave).

A move below this level is still allowable in this wave count — it would simply turn the correction into an expanded flat — but it is highly undesirable because:

1) From a classical technical analysis perspective, $74k is the last weekly higher low; losing it breaks HTF market structure, raises the odds of a future HTF lower high and bearish trend continuation.
2) Expanded flat C waves can extend far enough to mimic a bear market (see 2021–2022, Primary wave ④ of Cycle wave V).

Probability

1) 2.5 years of expanded flats in 4.5 years of price action sounds very unlikely, decreasing the odds of breaching $74k.

2) As of today, I assign 60% probability to my current wave count and 40% to this scenario. I'll share if this changes.

[Daniel📈 @CCPool_Daniel]

I told you this massive drop was coming. Closed all my longs, sold all Alt Coins, and went into Short Trades only.

I will also tell you when this Bear Market will end.

Follow and on notifications, as this is information you do not want to be even minutes late for…

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

@CCPool_Daniel Is the stream free for all to watch?

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

Holy discounts rn

[Persiantrader @dapersiantrader]

$BTC approaching a retest of the previous high 🔎

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

Been in the jeet jail after i accidentally sold all of $SOLACE allo, unlocking soon, bought some $VADER and $VADER using the profits.

Buy the fear lads!

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

Staked some

- $VADER
- $ARBUS
- $SOLACE
- $AIXBT
- $VIRGEN

Been loading up the dip @virtuals_io

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

$VADER has been killing it when it comes to giving back to the people who believe in the project!!

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

@LieutenantPonzi FUCK BEARS

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

@Wise_555 This needs to be studied @virtuals_io

I also wrote a small thread that went unnoticed because i dont engage with X that often. I didnt just address the problem, i also provided a solution that could work

https://t.co/pPNxeEnwrS

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

@virtuals_io should address the allocation issue. While AI agents are impressive, whales manipulate allocations by entering late and gaining more from projects. Consider introducing a FCFS basis while maintaining the same allocation concepts.

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

Lost access to the OG account, go give Fred a follow you were following him before.

If not and interested in futures education, still worth it. Man’s a freaking legend!

[Fred @FredTrader_]

Hey, this is S0LFRED

Many know me as Trader Fred, and I have been here for the longest time

This is very heavy for me,

I no longer have access to my original account

I have placed a lot of time and effort into growing this account

I will leave it all in God’s hands now

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

@FredTrader_ More power to you brother. Will make it all back and more💯

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

@Wise_555 I wrote a similar thread highlighting discrepancies in the framework, the wealth gap, and how it’s unprofitable for early investors and small investors. @virtuals_io needs to resolve this issue to make the idea more attractive to onboard new investors.

https://t.co/pPNxeEnwrS

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

@virtuals_io should address the allocation issue. While AI agents are impressive, whales manipulate allocations by entering late and gaining more from projects. Consider introducing a FCFS basis while maintaining the same allocation concepts.

[Rawffay.sol @rawffayyy_]

@cryptolyxe AI is the future. Start building @virtuals_io look into it and you’ll realise it is all you need to build, launch and sustain with $VIRTUAL as the use-case. While at it dont forget to use my referral. This way you can support me for showing you the way.

https://t.co/VGUKcZklo6