If you've been following my work you've noticed how I interpret 9 years of PA of $alts vs. $BTC as a giant reaccumulation range and 2021 altseason as only a retracement run (bottom part of the pic below).
And if you have an eye for patterns you could have noticed that current altcoin range, that produced these strong pops, is the same as that 9y range mentioned above. Only difference is one is REaccumulation and one accumulation. So one comes into a range from below (reacc) and the other one from above (acc).
If you liked this week's PA, you'll love it for the next 2 years even more. Altcoins should and will melt faces in a first real expansion since 2016-17. Period.
Is it a coincidence that bitcoin is hovering around its estimated cost of production, while the U.S ISM PMI is at 55.6 for the first time in the cycle - 3 CYCLES IN A ROW?
The answer: probably not a coincidence.
$Btc / $Vix
We failed to break the diagonal the last time.
But we are there again.
With a weekly close above diagonal, we will have a strong confirmation that bottom is in.
Let's see if we manage to break it this time.
BTC dominance has not broken down yet.
Only when it does and its over will so many in this space question everything they thought they knew about the cycles.
Funny how Copper/Gold is breaking out at this point aint it- almost like its telling us something
When South Korea ships, the world is building.
Semis. Memory. The inputs that run everything else.
PMIs tell you what happened weeks ago. Korean exports tell you what is happening now. And they just spiked.
Compute demand isn't a narrative. It's hard trade data.
Looking into this more there is def a correlation bt $BITO volume spikes and $IBIT price reversals up, which would seem to indicate the basis trade heating up given's BITO's explosive volume the past few weeks. Bc again, no regular investor is going to use BITO which charges 95bps and tracks futures when you can buy spot etfs for 20bps. So it pretty much has to be pro traders a la HFs in an arb trade. Not 100% sure on this but seems like a logical theory..