Ray Bop

BS Math | MS Computational Finance | Former Varsity 🎾 @carnegiemellon | I always play E4 ♟️ | Researcher at Celeritas Management Group | BTC is Freedom

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

The powerful play goes on, and you may contribute a verse.

We have not passed the event horizon. The universe was kind to spare me. But it’s a long journey home.

Most men lead lives of quiet desperation. To break the cycle is to be alive. It nourishes my soul.

We find comfort in those tempting pitt stops, at the cost of the vision.

And the truth is a blanket that just covers your face. It will never be enough.

We are not alone in this life. We are profoundly attached to ourself. A twin to share our joy and pain. But our flesh is what we present to others. It is a biological vessel that masks the soul.

We must exercise true executive authority. Otherwise we are at the mercy of the flesh. But such is the fate of many, for we are human in this lifetime.

Thank you Walt Whitman, Thoreau, and Robin Williams during these dark times.

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@BitcoinErrorLog That we agree on

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@saylor @adam3us BPS = long term bitcoin delta

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@BTCoptioneer 12% in bound

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@CalebFranzen The yield primarily only comes from the first one. The question is over what time frame must it appreciate. Aka how long of a bear market can MSTR survive. They can hibernate for a while

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@_JesseMK Estimated BTC yield about -20 bips. It’s so over

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@HermesLux I smell an STRC/tax interest carry trade

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

If company A and B have indentical balance sheets to Strategy but B has way higher cost basis than A, then B would be sitting on a much greater tax loss harvest potential. Though I am unsure how those capital losses can be put to use in the future besides for the case when they sell BTC at a capital gain.

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@caprioleio My speaker lasts about 8 hours on full volume

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@Evan_ss6 @thedefivillain God forbid we add some slack into the constraints of this optimization problem. And god forbid we we update our philosophy given mathematical insights. Then it will all be ok.

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@thedefivillain Wings on a plane need to flex.

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@JoshMandell6 What did Iranian Santa clause say to the rower?
Have a Maritime

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@JoshMandell6 100% amplification pls

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@BitPaine @saylor Few understand

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@hicasamadim 72

(2x2)x2=8
(5x5)x2=50
(6x6)x2=72

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@MichaelKantro Now try government debt to GDP

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@BitmundFreud Because I said so

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@saylor Submitted votes today

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

@altols @HermesLux Feel like this makes sense though feel free to comment your thoughts

[Ray Bop @raybopbop]

Here is a simple counter

If you look at MSTR 600-700 call spreads they are trading around 2.50. This price (normalized by call spread width) should be bounded by the probability that MSTR expires above 600 and the probability MSTR expires above 700. Aka

P(MSTR>=700) <= 2.5% <= P(MSTR >= 600)

However by your assertion we can look at the delta of the 700 calls to see what is P(MSTR >= 700) and we therefore conclude this is around 21% (according to Robinhood). But this contradicts the market implied upper bound of 2.5%.