Deep research: guessing the winner of the World Cup
five teams clustered within 7 percentage points of each other
this is the flattest frontrunner distribution on any major sports market right now - and that flatness is the signal
Spain leads on the back of Euro 2024 and the top FIFA ranking, but the expanded 48-team format increases knockout volatility significantly across North American venues
my take:
Spain at 16ยข is the consensus trade and therefore the boring one
the real edge is in France at 11%
France just beat Brazil 2-1 in a friendly three days ago despite going down to 10 men, and that result hasn't fully moved their market price yet