The Martian

[The Martian @rayxm97]

@TeslaBoomerMama @millepun @notlegalese Very interesting take. Spacex at private market is currently valued at about $1.4T which is almost the same as Tesla current market cap.

[⧫ Alan Chen ⧫(alanchentsla.eth） @alanchen]

https://t.co/QW2IphAEsI

[The Martian @rayxm97]

哈哈，是的

[KUNLUN昆侖 @Kunluntalk]

今天美国打伊朗武器，还是当年打伊拉克主力武器，再往前推，是上世纪和苏联冷战武器。我们算一下时间， 最远的差不多70年，50年之久了。也就是说，美国军方，是把武器库里，差不多快要报废的东西拿出来，一个活捉，一个斩首，同时把全世界都给震住了！
你说，是不是这个道理

[KUNLUN昆侖 @Kunluntalk]

今天名场面来了哈，这反杀，全日本哑口无言，连高市早苗脸色明显挂不住了😅今天日本随行记者，在白宫挑战川普，直接问打伊朗之前，为何不告诉我们日本？

川普听了，一秒都没耽搁，盯着这个记者，反问到，当年你们炸我们珍珠港，为什么不提��通知？因为你们比我们更期待惊喜

[The Martian @rayxm97]

@dlw20202020 我有朋友在加州做这行的，很正规，真有兴趣可以私信我

[Kevin Dahlstrom @Camp4]

Today I turn 55.

I’m the fittest, sharpest, and happiest I’ve ever been.

If I’m an outlier, it’s not because I’m built different or discovered a secret formula. The truth is far less glamorous:

It’s a million tiny choices, compounded over decades.

Here are 55 of them:

1. Walk 15+ miles a week, even if you do other exercise. Humans are uniquely made to move slowly over long distances—it’s critical to longevity.

2. Develop a writing practice. It’s the single best way to sharpen your mind. And remember, you don’t have to be a good writer to write. Start with 10 minutes a day.

3. Swap out your toothpaste, deodorant, lotions, soap, shampoo, and other personal care products for natural versions. Here’s a rule of thumb: Don’t put anything on your skin that you couldn’t safely eat.

4. If you have a positive thought about someone, don’t keep it to yourself—share it immediately. Encouragement defies the laws of physics: When you give energy, you also receive it.

5. Wear shoes with a wide forefoot (I like Topo Athletic) and wear toe spreaders around the house (search “yoga toes” on Amazon). Spine health begins with the feet.

6. Get sunlight regularly. Moderate sun exposure (without sunscreen) is hugely important for overall health.

7. Do a 3-minute deep (“ass to grass”) squat every morning. Deep squats are often called the anti-aging exercise. It’s been said that, “It’s not that you can’t do deep squats because you’re old, it’s that you’re old because you can’t do deep squats.”

8. Explore minimalism (it’s not what you think it is).

9. Set boundaries on toxic relationships. We tend to cling to relationships past their expiration date, and it takes a bigger toll on our health than we recognize.

10. Eat real food. Not too much. Don’t eat garbage. Binge occasionally. Fast occasionally. That’s the diet.

11. Learn about FIRE. It’s a great framework for financial success.

12. Don’t take antibiotics except in emergency situations. They’re massively over-prescribed and aren’t needed in most cases. Antibiotics have done untold damage to our guts, which is where health begins. Great natural alternatives are out there.

13. Get 8 hours of quality sleep each night. To optimize sleep:
—Don’t eat after 6pm
—Get blackout shades and cover LEDs with black tape
—No screens 2 hours before bed
—Try ashwagandha (an herb) to calm the nervous system

14. Stop drinking, even in moderation. People find all sorts of ways to justify drinking, but there’s no escaping the simple fact that alcohol is a toxin and it limits your potential.

15. Travel as much as possible. Nothing expands the mind like seeing the world. And travel doesn’t have to be expensive—the best experiences happen outside of fancy resorts, when you live like a local.

16. Let go of resentment. When you forgive someone, you release the prisoner, and the prisoner isn’t them… it’s you.

17. Show up on time, every time. Poor time management limits success more than most people realize. If you struggle with punctuality, stop everything else and fix that first.

18. Spend lots of time in nature and touch the earth. Humans evolved over 300k years to live in harmony with nature, and only recently have we retreated indoors. If you don’t spend time outside, you’re fighting biology (hint: You won’t win.)

19. Stop doing dumb things. As Leo Tolstoy said, “People try to do all sorts of clever and difficult things to improve life instead of doing the simplest, easiest thing—refusing to participate in activities that make life bad.”

20. Find your happy place and (eventually) move there. Most people live where they live because... that's where they live. We are products of our environment—choose yours carefully.

21. Find a hobby and pursue mastery. You can’t have a happy life without a passionate pursuit that isn’t your vocation. Your work—even if you enjoy it—isn’t enough.

22. Avoid mainstream medicine except as a last resort. The results are in—our healthcare (or more appropriately, sick care) system is badly broken and only makes people sicker.

23. Have a mindset of abundance. There is no advantage to being a pessimist—even if you’re right, it’s a miserable way to live. In a very real way… whatever you believe, you’re right!

24. Do hard things. Choose courage over comfort. Everything you want is on the other side of fear and hard work. As Jerzy Gregorik said, “Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life.”

25. Ignore haters. Hurt people hurt people. Negative/toxic people live in a prison of their own design. Don’t join them!

26. Say no. Protect your time and energy like it’s your most precious asset… because it is.

27. Become a water snob. As an alien said on Star Trek, humans are “ugly bags of mostly water.” You are what you drink—literally! We have Mountain Valley Spring water delivered in glass 5-gallon jugs and also have whole-house water filter (Aquasana Rhino).

28. Stop drinking sodas and sugary energy drinks. After a few weeks you won’t miss them, and a few months later they’ll seem disgusting. Refined sugar causes inflammation, which is the root of most disease.

29. If you’re over 35, find a good functional/longevity medicine doctor and start tracking your hormones. Modern life is hell on the endocrine system and restoring healthy hormone levels can change your life. As we get older, we either accept a slow decline in performance or we do something about it—choose the latter!

30. Develop a morning routine and follow it faithfully. Win the morning, win the day!

31. Invest in experiences, not things. People frequently regret buying things, but rarely regret investing in great experiences (especially when shared with loved ones). Remember, there’s nothing you can buy in a mall that you’ll remember in ten years.

32. Explore spirituality. It’s arrogant and small-minded to believe there’s nothing going on in our universe that is beyond our comprehension. We know less about our universe than an ant meandering on a sidewalk understands about this planet.

33. Have a strong bias toward action—doing rather than talking. If you ask a bunch of old people about their regrets, they’ll talk about the things they *didn't* do—the shots they didn’t take—more than the things they did do (even if it went wrong). As Wayne Gretzky famously said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Most people don’t take enough shots.

34. Stay lean. Men in particular are obsessed with muscle mass these days, but bulk doesn’t age well. The goal is to be strong but lean. The fittest guys in their 50s and beyond aren’t meatheads, they’re lean guys who are serious about a sport.

35. Curate your inner circle carefully. Surround yourself with people you admire and who challenge you to grow. Remember, we’re the average of our 5 closest relationships.

36. Be the fittest version of yourself. Your body is your only vessel for experiencing life—so treat it as such. Fitness isn’t working out a few times a week, it’s a lifestyle. The older you get, the more time you need to devote to your health.

37. Take the time to appreciate art and beauty in all its forms.

38. Think globally, but act locally. Too many people put their energy into far-away problems they don’t understand and can’t impact, while ignoring problems right under their nose. Want to change the world? Start at home.

39. Try psychedelics. It’s one of those things everyone should do at least once, and it might be the breakthrough you’ve been looking for.

40. Limit bad habits, including unhealthy thought patterns. We all have them—practice avoidance and find substitutes. Get professional help if needed.

41. Be a lifelong learner. Your brain is just like a muscle—if you don’t feed and flex it regularly, it will atrophy.

42. Find your purpose. People with a strong sense of purpose are happier and live longer. Lack of purpose sucks energy and magnifies depression.

43. Only take advice from people who embody the traits you want to have. Talk is cheap—emulate those who have DONE it.

44. The goal is not to retire and do nothing, it’s to build a great day-to-day life that you don’t need to escape. A life of leisure is a slow death. Happiness isn’t possible without a little struggle, uncertainty, and skin in the game.

45. Have fun! Do frivolous and silly things that make you smile. As George Bernard Shaw famously said, “We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.”

46. Whatever you want to do or achieve in life, start NOW. Don’t fall victim to “someday thinking” because someday never comes.

47. Accumulate assets—things that grow in value over time. It’s the #1 habit of rich people, and it can be done in tiny chunks. Instead of spending $100 on an impulse purchase that has no lasting value, put that money into an index fund or Bitcoin. It becomes addictive (in a good way).

48. Don’t ignore the big 3 canaries in the coal mine for health:
—Low libido (and ED)
—Frequent sinus & respiratory issues
—Depression
These usually aren’t medical conditions in themselves, they’re symptoms of an underlying problem. Find a good doc (outside of the mainstream) and figure out the root cause.

49. Have a clear vision for your future. How can you decide which direction to go if you haven’t clearly defined the destination? It sounds obvious, but 95% of people haven’t defined their “Ideal End State” in detail and in writing. (Check out my thread on this topic.)

50. Make your own decisions. We live in an era where most of what society tells us is wrong. Don’t be afraid to break from societal norms—if people say you’re crazy, it’s a sign that you’re doing something right.

51. Get hardcore about mobility exercise. As you age, it’s usually the knees, hips, and lower back that limit physical performance. 30 min a couple times a week can spare you a lifetime of pain. YouTube is a great resource.

52. Go all in on family. Get married, stay married, have kids. Burn the boats. In the end, family is all that matters.

53. Be ruthless with your time. Money comes and goes. Time only goes. Audit your calendar ruthlessly—cut the trivial, double down on the meaningful, and spend your hours like your life depends on it. (Because it does.)

54. Have a strong bias toward action. Be curious, try things, meet people—it’s how you increase your surface area for serendipity, the most powerful unseen force in our lives.

55. Reinvent yourself every decade. Over time, we slowly drift off course from our priorities, values, and true identity. Take stock and don’t be afraid to hit the reset button. Bold, calculated moves made for the right reasons almost always pay off—usually even more than you can imagine.

🎁 P.S. If you enjoyed this post, would you give me a birthday gift? Repost or comment with the item number(s) you liked best?

[The Martian @rayxm97]

@SawyerMerritt Vote Yes

[The Martian @rayxm97]

@elonmusk @xai Will some of those units be Dojo?

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

OpenAI had a significant lead from summer 2022 through spring 2024 when Google and Anthropic caught up to GPT-4. 7ish quarters of dominance as a result of being the first to aggressively bet on the traditional scaling “law” for pre-training.

Being first to reasoning with o1 only led to a few months of advantage.

Deepseek, Google and xAI are at rough parity with OpenAI today. xAI arguably in the lead. Google and xAI will likely decisively surpass o3 soon as their base models are better. So urgent need for GPT-5 as the basis for a putative “o5”reasoning model.

Sam noted that OpenAI would have a narrower lead going forward and Satya essentially stated that a unique period where they had a tremendous lead in model capability was ending.

IMO, this is why Satya is opting out of funding $160b of pretraining for OpenAI per @theinformation. Instead he will make money by providing inference to OpenAI.

Google and Xai both have unique, valuable sources of data that will increasingly differentiate them from Deepseek, OpenAI and Anthropic. As does Meta if they catch up from a model capability perspective.

I have paraphrased @ericvishria many times and noted that frontier models without access to unique, valuable data are the fastest depreciating assets in history. Distillation only amplifies this.

It seems like Satya shares this belief; hence opting out of the $160b of pre-training, the rumored datacenter cancellations and his statement on a recent podcast that there is a datacenter overbuild coming and better to lease than buy. Might be a sound decision for Microsoft from an economic perspective and at some point Microsoft might even use an open-source model to power CoPilot.

There may not be any ROI on future frontier models that do not have access to unique, valuable data like YouTube, X, TeslaVision, Instagram and Facebook. Zuckerberg’s strategy also seems much more sensible from this angle. Unique data might end up being the only basis for differentiation and ROI on pre-training multi-trillion or quadrillion parameter models.

If this is correct, only 2-3 companies will be pre-training frontier models and we will only need a few giant datacenters for the coherent clusters that are needed for pre-training. The rest of AI compute would be smaller datacenters that are geospatially optimized for low latency and/or cost-effective inference. Cost effective inference = cheaper, lower quality power (less premium for Nuclear), less of an imperative for liquid cooling in ST, etc. A very different world from one where 6-10 companies are pre-training frontier models.

Note that reasoning models are extremely compute intensive. Test-time compute means that compute is literally intelligence. So in this scenario there might be even more compute required than in the “pre-training” centric compute scenario that was the base case for the market throughout 2023-2024. But it would be a very different kind of compute as noted above. Instead of a 50/50 split between pre-training and inference it would be 5/95.  Lots of Hondas, very few Ferraris. Infrastructure excellence would be paramount.

And all of this without even considering the implications of on-device inference and/or full quantization - the Deepseek R1 paper was not the most important paper to be published by a Chinese lab in the last year. IYKYK.

The economic returns to superintelligence are definitionally unknowable. I hope they are high, but a 140 IQ model running on device with access to unique data about the world might be enough for most use cases. ASI isn’t needed to book travel, etc.

I’ve done my best to be dispassionate, but I do have my own biases, both personal and economic, when it comes to xAI and OpenAI. If OpenAI is still one of the leaders in 5 years, then likely a function of first-mover advantage, ChatGPT becoming a verb and scale being even more of an advantage for reasoning models in that users generate and verify(ish) reasoning traces.

As ever, time will tell.

[The Martian @rayxm97]

@rawsalerts https://t.co/Rod8IPomQ3

[The Martian @rayxm97]

Not a bad thing from long term perspective.

[Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus]

Your daily reminder that AI is gonna replace your job.

In this video, Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemeatkowski explains how they use OpenAI to replace around 20% of employees with AI every year. And that's just the beginning.

An hour ago I posted the interview with OpenAI's CFO from Yahoo, OpenAI's goal is also to replace humans.

Face this fact. You will be replaced.

[ThinkingWest @thinkingwest]

Another Caesar is coming, and Western civilization is at a turning point, says German historian Oswald Spengler.

He claimed we live in “the most trying times known to history of a great culture."

And there's no offramp.

Buckle up.

Here's what Spengler predicted...🧵

[The Martian @rayxm97]

@ICannot_Enough Bullish signal

[The Martian @rayxm97]

@MartinViecha I requested but didn’t get email for document submission.

[Andrew Ng @AndrewYNg]

I think AI agentic workflows will drive massive AI progress this year — perhaps even more than the next generation of foundation models. This is an important trend, and I urge everyone who works in AI to pay attention to it.

Today, we mostly use LLMs in zero-shot mode, prompting a model to generate final output token by token without revising its work. This is akin to asking someone to compose an essay from start to finish, typing straight through with no backspacing allowed, and expecting a high-quality result. Despite the difficulty, LLMs do amazingly well at this task!

With an agentic workflow, however, we can ask the LLM to iterate over a document many times. For example, it might take a sequence of steps such as:
- Plan an outline.
- Decide what, if any, web searches are needed to gather more information.
- Write a first draft.
- Read over the first draft to spot unjustified arguments or extraneous information.
- Revise the draft taking into account any weaknesses spotted.
- And so on.

This iterative process is critical for most human writers to write good text. With AI, such an iterative workflow yields much better results than writing in a single pass.

Devin’s splashy demo recently received a lot of social media buzz. My team has been closely following the evolution of AI that writes code. We analyzed results from a number of research teams, focusing on an algorithm’s ability to do well on the widely used HumanEval coding benchmark. You can see our findings in the diagram below.

GPT-3.5 (zero shot) was 48.1% correct. GPT-4 (zero shot) does better at 67.0%. However, the improvement from GPT-3.5 to GPT-4 is dwarfed by incorporating an iterative agent workflow. Indeed, wrapped in an agent loop, GPT-3.5 achieves up to 95.1%.

Open source agent tools and the academic literature on agents are proliferating, making this an exciting time but also a confusing one. To help put this work into perspective, I’d like to share a framework for categorizing design patterns for building agents. My team AI Fund is successfully using these patterns in many applications, and I hope you find them useful.

- Reflection: The LLM examines its own work to come up with ways to improve it.
- Tool use: The LLM is given tools such as web search, code execution, or any other function to help it gather information, take action, or process data.
- Planning: The LLM comes up with, and executes, a multistep plan to achieve a goal (for example, writing an outline for an essay, then doing online research, then writing a draft, and so on).
- Multi-agent collaboration: More than one AI agent work together, splitting up tasks and discussing and debating ideas, to come up with better solutions than a single agent would.

I’ll elaborate on these design patterns and offer suggested readings for each next week.

[Original text: https://t.co/y4McIAjD2m]

[Koroush AK @KoroushAK]

Short term accomplishments are 80% luck, 20% skill.

Long term accomplishments are 20% luck, 80% skill.

Long term accomplishments look like luck to short term people.

[The Martian @rayxm97]

@Ghost_TeslaPhx @Tesla @Kristennetten @GailAlfarATX @yo_cybertruck @daelmor @wholemars @Ali_TeslaMY @jrosinski97 @elonmusk @DirtyTesLa @BLKMDL3 2013 Model S still going strong

[Richard Feynman @RobotFeynman]

🚨ANNOUNCEMENT🚨

Launching "Best of Feynman: Physics, Art & Safecracking" on @gumroad

Get it now for $0

Retweet to receive your free PDF of the book.

[The Martian @rayxm97]

@vincent13031925