Razrw0w

Founder | US Stock Trader📈📉

[Mark Ritchie II @MarkRitchie_II]

I literally pulled these headlines from my youtube suggested videos...have a great weekend!

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

From a technical perspective, I’ve decided not to enter $META at this time. The chart suggests it's not the right moment.

Unlike the China Tariff drop last year—which saw a quick V-Shaped recovery to All-Time Highs—the current drop following earnings tells a different story. The price clearly failed to reclaim the MA200 during the rebound. Based on $META's historical behavior, failing a retest of the MA200 often leads to a downtrend lasting 6 months to a year.

I prefer not to expose my portfolio to that risk. Even though it’s a well-known Mega Cap and some popular influencers recently announced they bought in, I’m sticking to my own discipline and analysis.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

🇺🇸 US Market Wrap: The "Headline Risk" Pause

Markets pulled back last night (Dow -0.94%, S&P -0.34%) after recent highs. It wasn't a structural break, but rather a reaction to a cluster of "Headline Risks" hitting at once.

Here’s the breakdown:

1️⃣ Defense Sector Pivot: The biggest rotation of the night. News of a potential $1.5T defense budget (2027) triggered a massive rally in defense stocks. The narrative shifted instantly from "policy concern" to "guaranteed demand."

2️⃣ Macro Confusion: The economic signals are conflicting. 📉 JOLTS: Lower than expected (Labor cooling = Fed friendly). 📈 ISM Services: Spiked significantly (Services hot = Inflation risk). Result: The market is stuck in "Wait & See" mode, terrified of making a move before Friday’s NFP data.

3️⃣ Tech & AI Nuances:

Nvidia: Facing headwinds in China regarding H200 orders (policy-driven delays), forcing NVDA to demand stricter upfront payment terms.

Arm (CES 2026): Pushing "Physical AI" (Robotics/Auto), signaling the next phase of AI is moving from screens to the real world.

💡 Dr. Name’s Take:Yesterday was a "de-risking" session, not a sell-off. Traders are trimming exposure ahead of the NFP report.

If NFP is "Soft": We likely return to Risk-on.

If NFP is "Hot": Watch out for spiking yields and dollar strength.

Strategy: Don’t try to be a hero today. Keep some dry powder and wait for the macro signal to clear up on Friday.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

Market is setting up! 🇺🇸📈

After looking at $QQQ, the big brother $SPY looks just as strong. A rock-solid VCP. Volatility has dropped until it's almost flat (Contraction < 2%).

This is a very interesting Low Risk Entry for trend followers... When the whole market sets up like this, pay attention.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

A common question regarding how to invest in ETFs that offer leveraged returns:

• Holding vs. Trading: The speakers unanimously agree that Leveraged ETFs (like x2 or x3) are suitable for "Trading" rather than "Buy & Hold." This is due to Time Decay and daily rebalancing mechanisms; if the market moves sideways, the portfolio value can decrease on its own.

• Strategy: Use them for short-term speculation or to amplify returns on large-cap stocks that typically move slowly (using x2 ETFs).

• Advice: Beginners should start with x2 ETFs only. x3 or x5 ETFs are extremely volatile, making risk management very difficult.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

Last night, the market chose "Risk-on." Energy & Industrials led the charge on Venezuela tensions (heavy crude supply concerns). Small caps outperformed large caps.

Even with ISM Manufacturing contracting for the 10th straight month (<50), the market is betting that "slower growth = more aggressive Fed cuts."

🇯🇵 Japan Focus: Eyes on the 10Y JGB auction today. Any yield spikes could shake up global flows/FX.

CES 2026 & Stock Moves: $AMD: Aggressive moves in AI PC (vs. Intel) & Data Center (MI455/500). Bringing in OpenAI shows they are gunning for "Main Player" status, not just an alternative. $NVDA: Moving beyond just selling chips to owning the "Physical AI" & Robotaxi ecosystem (testing by 2027). It's an end-to-end stack play. $ASTS: Rallying hard on "BlueBird 7 expectations." Pure story-driven momentum right now—watch the volatility.

What to watch: Will Energy flows sustain? And how will global yields react to slowing growth data?

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

🔥 Ray Dalio's 2026 Playbook Summary: Time for "Regime Change"? Flee US Stocks, Embrace Gold?

Based on Ray Dalio's thesis summary, 2025 was the year of "Dollar Devaluation," and 2026 will see political and economic risks intensify. Here is the investment cheat sheet:

✅ BUY:
Gold & Miners ($GLD, $GDX): The star of the show! The ultimate hedge against war risk + currency debasement.

Non-US Equities: European Stocks ($VGK) and Emerging Markets ($EEM) are starting to outperform the US.

Defense & US Mfg: Defense stocks ($LMT, $RTX) and Heavy Industry ($CAT) benefiting from Deglobalization & Reshoring themes.

Energy ($XOM, $CVX): Supported by Trump administration policies.

❌ AVOID:
US Large-Cap ($SPY, $QQQ): Viewed as overvalued with an AI bubble forming.

Long Bonds ($TLT): High risk in long-term treasuries.
USD Cash: Holding cash = Losing value.

💡 Bottom Line: Diversify away from the US, prioritize liquid assets, and watch out for political chaos between 2026-2028.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

Day 1 of 2026. After fully resetting my U.S. trading portfolio, I’m starting this year with a personal challenge:
to grow an $8,000 account as far as possible.

Along the way, if I generate additional cash flow from my brand businesses, I’ll inject capital to increase buying power — and I’ll clearly disclose every capital top-up when it happens.

I’ll be sharing weekly trading recaps, including performance and key takeaways.
Feel free to follow my trading journey — building brands by day, trading the markets along the way.

⸻

2025 Recap:
2025 was my first full year trading the U.S. market — and I completely stepped away from Thai equities.
Looking back, it was absolutely the right decision.
The U.S. market fits my trading style far better, and over the year I’ve become much more familiar with the market’s behavior, my emotions, and the personality of U.S. stocks.

⸻

What I started doing for the future:
• DCA into Bitcoin — finally started after wanting to do it back in 2021–2022 but quitting too early. Honestly, still hurts thinking about how big it could’ve been 😅
• Accumulating quantum computing stocks — buying gradually after the recent deep pullback. This is a long-term accumulation for me. I strongly believe this theme is inevitable, and it’s coming sooner than most people expect.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

@RaleighReefs Maybe early sell(as i often do) but i love to hear the cash register ring💸

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

$SLV I’m selling right here. This is exactly what they call a Buying Climax or Climax Top. It has all the classic signs:
✅ High volume
✅ Wide spread up bar
✅ Parabolic rise
✅ Euphoria around the silver rally
So, be cautious of a pullback next week.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

$TSLA is forming a cup-with-handle and building a short-term base right now. The risk–reward looks very attractive — I’m keeping a tight stop, no more than 3%. This is exactly my trading style. I’m a trader, not a value investor — had to say this because a lot of people keep DM’ing me asking for deep fundamental theses and long-term narratives 😂. It literally says “trader” in my bio, guys.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

Maybe Michael Burry is actually right this time. $NVDA failed to break above 186, got rejected at the 50-day moving average, and opened with a 3% gap down.

$PLTR looks relatively stronger for now, still holding above its 50-day MA, but when you zoom out, it’s starting to resemble a head-and-shoulders pattern.

So the question is — is this shaping up to be a potential short entry.🤨

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

Since Gemini Pro 3 came out, the amount of OpenAI ads I’m seeing is actually mental—proper noticeable increase. They're all over Facebook, TikTok, the lot. I’ve got to put my hands up and say I used to reckon Gemini was pants. Out of the three I use (ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok), it was easily the worst for trading chat. But this new Pro 3 is a massive step up, even for general work. I’m finding myself using it loads more these days.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

Sure, the SpaceX secondary share sale is great sentiment for the whole space sector, but without a low-risk entry — no base, no proper setup — I’m staying out. For now, it’s just watch and wait.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

Why I’m not buying $NFLX right now 👇

The chart already tells us the uptrend has broken — it’s slipped below the 200-day MA. So even if there’s “good news” coming out, price has already spoken.

Plus, the acquisition deal isn’t fully closed yet. It still needs to go through regulatory approval, which means it can still fall apart. Deals like this collapse pretty often, so it’s better to keep that in mind rather than assuming it’s a done deal.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

Follow the discipline you believe in. Believe that it will definitely come, coming sooner than we thought 10 years ago. Who would have thought that AI would boom like this? Quantum computers should be the same. So, put in every week. If you have a lot, put in a lot. If you have a little, put in a little. $BTC is the same. Put in a lot. For the trading portfolio, for the long-term savings portfolio, just keep putting in.

[Razrw0w @razrw0w]

‘Not today, bros.’
That’s probably what the market wants to say to everyone who was euphoric after NVDA’s earnings call yesterday.
You thought Jensen came riding in like a white knight to save the market after the sea of red.
Sure, we opened with gap-ups across the board today, especially in tech — but markets aren’t that easy.

And yes, I still haven’t covered my $SPY short. 😌👌

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

Still holding my $SPY short. I’ve got headroom to my stop and made the decision to play for a bigger move. The trade is now breakeven or better, so there’s no downside if I’m wrong. I don’t believe $NVDA’s earnings magically repaired the technical damage overnight
That said, December is typically the strongest month of the year, so we definitely don’t want to get married to a market short. But in this case, if I’m wrong, I lose nothing — and that’s how I make millions. 🤑
Individual stocks are what I'm really interested in. Currently, the list of buyable setups is scant. But that could change in short order. Patience and vigilance should be exercised.
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

Intraday rally attempts continue to be weak. The burden of proof remains on the bulls to show that the tape has shifted from distribution back to accumulation. Until that happens, caution is still advised. I have not covered my $SPY short position. Our volatility and sentiment have not yet reached levels that would indicate the selling has exhausted. Stock leadership is severely lacking. $NDVA earnings could be a market moving event.
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

It is unlikely that the market has established a low or carved out an effective bottom. We are not out of the woods. I have not covered my $SPY short.