Richard Bernstein Advisors

RBA is an investment adviser and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Janus Henderson US (Holdings) Inc.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

Richard Bernstein Advisors is now officially a part of Janus Henderson Investors. Our independent, research-driven process remains intact, now supported by Janus Henderson’s broader resources.
Find out more here: https://t.co/1KTzqVI0zx

#BrighterFutureTogether

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

#JoblessClaims (LEADING Indicator) have now posted 3 straight weeks under 200K. The last time that happened was…1969!!!!

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

Still waiting to see the #AI #productivity miracle consensus feels will curtail #inflation and allow the #Fed to cut #rates. Nothing so far.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

#ISM Services New Orders (LEADING Indicator) and Prices (LAGGING Indicator) are both in clear uptrends for the first time in 10 years. Will someone at the #Fed take note?

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

The US needs #Japan to buy our bonds and the #Treasury accordingly helped support the #Yen. But before anyone declares all clear let’s realize how puny the recent appreciation is relative to history.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

The #labor market continues to tighten very gradually. If that continues #Wage #inflation pressures could complicate matters for the #Fed.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

#Gasoline futures seem to be jumping the gun a bit on any resumption of normal activity in the #Hormuz Strait. Only 3 tankers crossed yesterday versus the normal 60+.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

We’ve often cited our 5 traits of a #bubble: 1) Increased liquidity 2) Increased leverage 3) Democratization of the market 4) Increased turnover 5) Record new issues. The increased use of #PerpectualFutures strongly suggests the #markets are at least highly speculative.
https://t.co/1iTGMVKi3x

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

Dr. #Copper (a supposed PhD in Economics) continues to scream for the #Fed to raise #rates. No one seems to be listening.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

US Nominal #GDP came in at a whopping 7.9% in 2Q26 and our tracker is right now at 6.7% for 3Q. Explain to me again why the #Fed shouldn’t be raising #rates???

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

#ISM #Manufacturing #NewOrders (LEADING Indicator) continue to strengthen. Higher #rates increasingly seem unlikely to immediately stymie capital investment.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

#Commodity volatility affects production as much as the absolute price level. #Oil prices are up but increasing oil price #volatility seems to be so far causing a muted #drilling response.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

#Inflation remains embedded in the US #economy. #EmploymentCostIndex rises modestly and it remains at levels not seen in 20 years. The argument that the #Fed should not raise #rates seems weaker every day.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

More evidence #speculation is driving #stocks. #MarginDebt is a prime contributor to brokerage stock performance. Both up a lot over the past 3 years.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

#JoblessClaims (LEADING Indicator!!) continue to scream the US is replaying the Guns & Butter period of the 1960s that fueled the early stages of the 1960s/1970s #inflation spiral.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

The #Fed focuses on core #inflation maybe because they don’t drive or eat. For the rest of us, the headline #GDP Deflator is the now highest in more than 40…40!...years when excluding the post-pandemic oddities.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

The main reason energy prices aren’t higher is because the #StrategicPetroleumReserve has been quickly drawn down to the lowest level since…1983!!

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

Reflecting the stock market’s speculative tone, #ConferenceBoard #ConsumerConfidence continues to show historic bullishness. Seems there is little/no #risk aversion.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

The #credit markets are sniffing out the gradual deterioration of #Mag7’s once-magnificent balance sheets. #CDS spreads for the companies are now rising to varying degrees.

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

One of the differences between bubbles and speculation is that bubbles pervade society. A sportswear and memorabilia company buys a financial technology firm to get into prediction markets? Hmmmm.
https://t.co/h7wgtSfTL6

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

#Consumer #Sentiment has never (!) in the history of the data been this poor when the #economy was so benign.