RcamiloHC

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

@SpacBobby The issue is we would have absolutely insane post-earnings volatility if a company reports every six months. This is what happens in the UK. Because investors basically go without information for so long. In theory there are arguments for it, but in practice it’s terrible.

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

Larry Ellison’s wealth is up +$75bn after these insane $ORCL earnings, to $365bn+.

At 81yo, he’s still hustling and doing earnings calls! Incredible. He’s more locked in than most 30 year olds.

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

Someone made a fake AI-influencer to pump a bunch of Ponzi schemes. Substack and all.

Yes, this is a fake AI-generated person, using AI-generated Veo3 videos, using AI-generated voice, reading AI-generated text.

The Golden Age of Grift (AI-enabled).

Stay safe out there folks.

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

There are so many “compounder” stocks that many people considered having huge moats just a few years ago, and which turned out to be completely moat-less.

$UNH $NVO $LULU $NKE $EL $CHTR $SBUX $INTC to name but a few.

Stop seeing moats where there are none. See reality.

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

At 2022 deal announcement:
$ADBE market cap $170bn
$FIG value $20bn.

Current:
$ADBE market cap $150bn
$FIG market cap $60bn.

Disruptors. They grow up so fast. I wonder when these values will cross?

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

The fact that $LVMH sales are dramatically shrinking despite literally all global stock markets (and every other market!) being at all time high should ring alarm bells for “luxury” investors.

There’s only so much shiny trinkets people can own?

Stock at 21.7x ‘25E P/E.

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

A few days ago I Tweeted I had heard someone lost 8-figures (from an 8-figure net worth) shorting RILY. There were some replies asking how it would've been possible to lose money shorting a stock that cratered in 8/2024. I'll explain how it could've happened.

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

Sydney Sweeney doing the fall campaign at $AEO.

Consensus EPS next year is $1.23 (Feb-27), which implies 8.5x P/E at the $10.50 price. Stock’s beaten down due to poor (-3%) Q1 SSS & tariff-induced margin pressure.

I think they can do $1.60 in EPS, which would be $24 @ 15x P/E.

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

CPI +2.7%, core +2.9%, same story as recently. Shelter up (the Fed!), eating out up + jump in utility gas & electricity costs. Huge monthly jump in medical care costs.

Goods? Mixed bag. Car prices continue down, apparel up a bit after two months of decline.

Rorschach test!

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

The oligarchs are about to fundamentally restructure society around AI and they're not telling you.

As proven throughout history, people are only willing to accept such deep systemic changes through crisis.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

I believe it is likely @Harvard’s that financial position is overstated by the media and the general public. I believe this is principally for two reasons.

One, people ignore Harvard’s $7.9 billion of debt outstanding, which is likely to increase in order for Harvard to meet its cash needs due to the loss of government funding and reduced alumni gifts.

Second, Harvard’s endowment is principally invested in illiquid private assets including real estate, private equity, and venture capital funds.

Real estate and private equity funds are highly levered so relatively small changes in asset values can have a large impact on equity values. For example, if a real estate fund’s asset values decline by 15% and the assets are levered 60%, the fund’s equity value will decline by 37.5%.

The increase in cap rates and interest rates have impaired real estate and private equity asset values. These funds do not generally mark to market as public assets are marked leading to a wide disparity between public values and private values when overall values decline.

Venture funds generally mark their assets to the last round valuation so these marks can also be overstated as these values can become stale.

I believe that a substantial part of the reason why many private assets remain private despite the stock market near all time highs is that the public market will value private assets at lower values than they are being carried at privately.

Now Harvard, Yale and other endowments are seeking to raise cash by selling their private assets. Because of a lack of liquidity events for investors, many private fund investors have limited capacity to invest in private deals. There are funds that have been formed to take advantage of this dislocation, but as more universities are forced to raise capital, the bids they receive will likely decline.

In my interview with @nfergus below, I said the realizable values of Harvard’s private assets could be as low 40% of current carrying values if Harvard needs to liquidate substantial portions of its assets to meet its obligations.

I am told by an expert I highly respect in this space that my 40% discount is much too high and a 7% - 15% discount is a better estimate.

So back to Harvard. I have said the real value of the Harvard endowment could be as low as $40 billion.

Let’s conservatively assume the Harvard endowment’s real value is 90% of carrying value.

90% of $53 billion is $47.7 billion but you then have to deduct Harvard’s $7.9 billion of debt so Harvard’s real endowment value is likely less than $40 billion. That could be a high estimate if it needs to sell large portions of its private assets for liquidity reasons.

Obviously, there is a wide disparity of performance among private funds and demand for these funds. The best funds will likely trade at higher values so the above summary is more of a thought experiment than a precise calculation.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The 10Y Note Yield officially rises to 4.60%.

That’s +90 basis points since the “Fed pivot” began.

Again, the Fed has cut rates by 75 basis points, but yields are soaring.

Something is wrong.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What is happening in Japan?

Japan's 40-year bond yield just hit its highest level in over 20 years.

Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has called the situation “worse than Greece.”

All as Japan’s GDP is contracting again.

[Valatility @valatility]

How I Trade:
1) quant + macro + fundamentals
2) ETFs/Futures/Options only (No KEYS)
3) Timing global bottoms and tops (No HODL)
4) Focused on betting on the fastest macro-themed horse every year. Sometimes cash is the fastest horse!
5) Long delta in bull / delta-neutral in bear

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

In 1971, the US ran out of money and defaulted on its debts. Now, they didn’t say it that way. But by moving away from the gold standard, money as we understood it ended.

I expected the stock market to plunge, but it went on to rise nearly 25%. That surprised me. But when I looked into it, I discovered the exact same thing happened in 1933 and it had the exact same effect.

Here’s why.

#principles #raydalio #history #economics

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

What’s the lesson from mega health-insurer $UNH now being down almost 50% in three weeks (>$300bn in market cap lost)?

Note: This is not fartcoin, it’s a business that had $400bn in revenue last year! More revenue than $GOOG!

[Louis Gleeson @aigleeson]

I don't get it. People still don't use GPTs inside ChatGPT.

Here are 10 of the best GPTs that'll help you automate all your tedious work:

[Aadit Sheth @aaditsh]

Jeff bezos literally dropped the best advice for productivity in less than a minute

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The bond market just BROKE:

In just 3 days, the 10Y Note Yield surged 60 basis points while the S&P 500 fell -8%.

This marks the LARGEST 3-day increase since 1982 and one of the largest divergences in history.

What happened? The basis trade broke.

(a thread)