Damn, the best performing stock Serenity ever mentioned $AXTI proves once again why it went up 6,000%
It has suffered a lot like all the others, but it will come back stronger than ever
If I wasn't ALL IN on $SIVE, I would have bought the dip without a doubt
In the stock market, the greatest value creation is rarely found solely in the most visible companies.
It often emerges from the enabling technologies, critical components, and physical bottlenecks that allow entire industries to scale.
AI is not just another market.
It is a general-purpose technology accelerating multiple industrial cycles simultaneously.
However, every acceleration creates new constraints:
More computing power requires more energy, more memory, more interconnections, new materials, and new manufacturing capabilities.
It is within these constraints that the next strategic value chains will emerge.
🧵 A mapping of the major technological cycles to monitor:
1/ Artificial Intelligence
AI is the engine of the current cycle.
Yet, behind the visible models lies a complex physical infrastructure:
• Advanced semiconductors
• High-bandwidth memory (HBM)
• Advanced packaging
• Ultra-high-speed networks
• Data centers
• Cooling and energy infrastructure
The next competitive advantage will not come solely from better models, but from the ability to build the infrastructure required for massive deployment.
2/ Photonics & Optical Interconnections
As AI clusters grow, moving data becomes almost as important as computing it.
Current architectures are progressively approaching their electrical limits.
Strategic areas include:
• Silicon photonics
• InP lasers
• Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
• Optical engines
• Ultra-high-speed optical interconnects
The question is no longer only:
"Who has the best computing power?"
But also:
"Who can move trillions of operations with acceptable energy consumption?"
3/ Robotics & Autonomous Systems
AI is gradually leaving the digital world and entering the physical world.
Advanced robotics will depend on multiple technological layers:
• World models
• Autonomous agents
• Computer vision
• Sensors
• Precision actuators
• Mechatronics
• Power electronics (SiC/GaN)
The challenge is no longer only intelligence.
It is the ability to build reliable, affordable machines that can be manufactured at scale.
4/ Biotechnology
AI could transform scientific discovery by dramatically accelerating research cycles.
Key infrastructures include:
• Predictive bioinformatics
• Protein modeling
• Self-driving laboratories
• Experimental automation
• New synthesis and analysis platforms
The next biological revolution will depend as much on data and machines as on biology itself.
5/ Advanced Materials
Every industrial revolution eventually encounters physical limits.
The next generation of technologies will depend on materials capable of supporting:
• Higher power density
• Greater thermal resistance
• Faster data transfer
• Further miniaturization
Key areas include:
• SiC and GaN for power electronics
• SOI for advanced semiconductor architectures
• InP for photonics and lasers
• New substrates for advanced packaging
• Composite materials, ceramics, and advanced glass
• Specialty chemicals and ultra-pure gases
However, history shows that new technological cycles can also emerge from entirely new material platforms:
• Two-dimensional materials
• Quantum materials
• New semiconductor compounds
• Advanced superconductors
The challenge will not only be discovering new materials, but industrializing them.
6/ Quantum Computing
The transition from research to a scalable industry will require solving major infrastructure challenges:
• Extreme cryogenics
• Electronic control systems
• Interconnections
• Photonics
• Low-defect manufacturing
As with semiconductors, the winners may not only be those building the technology itself, but those enabling the entire ecosystem around it.
7/ Energy
Every technological revolution ultimately faces the same fundamental constraint:
Energy.
The growth of AI and electrification is creating massive demand for:
• Stronger electrical grids
• Low-carbon power generation
• Energy storage
• Power electronics
• Small modular reactors (SMRs)
• Long-term fusion technologies
Energy could become one of the defining constraints of the 21st century.
8/ Space
Space is gradually becoming an extension of digital infrastructure.
Key areas include:
• Reusable launch systems
• Earth observation
• On-board data processing (edge computing)
• Optical space communications
• Radiation-hardened electronics
Conclusion
Every major technological revolution has two sides.
The visible side:
Applications, platforms, and products.
The invisible side:
Materials, components, machines, and supply chains that make them possible.
However, one principle must always be remembered:
A bottleneck is never permanent.
A new architecture, a technological breakthrough, or an industrial shift can bypass it and move value elsewhere.
For investors, the challenge is therefore not only identifying today's constraints, but understanding how they evolve over time.
The coming decades will likely be shaped by companies capable of transforming scientific breakthroughs into industrial capabilities at scale.
Understanding these value chains means identifying the infrastructures that could build the next technological cycle.
Long-term thesis: Why X-FAB ($XFAB) could target a $10 billion market cap by 2029.
1/ The physical constraint: Copper is reaching its limits in AI data centers. Data transmission requires a massive shift toward silicon photonics and advanced packaging. This is the bottleneck, and industry giants cannot ignore it.
2/ Current status (Q2 2026):
Quarterly revenue: $199.8M (within target range, +2% sequentially).
EBITDA margin: 17.6% (resilient despite the market correction).
The downside: The automotive segment saw a 19% year-over-year drop (to $116M) due to inventory destocking.
3/ The strategic shift:
The Microsystems & Photonics segment rose to $28.7M (+14% year-over-year).
The automotive book-to-bill ratio hit a two-year high, signaling that the bottom has been reached.
Multiple design wins secured directly within data centers.
4/ 2029 Projection ($10B target):
Currently, fixed costs are weighing heavily on EBIT (down 90% to $2.1M), masking the company's true value. However, once the operating leverage of high-end segments (Photonics & SiC/GaN) kicks in driven by AI demand and full foundry utilization multiplying the current valuation by 4x to 5x by 2029 becomes a simple matter of volume growth.
An essential building block for the infrastructure of tomorrow. flyyyy
@Million_Sancet agree with you, but I should have sold at the all-time high; my average cost is 5.09 for 5,000 shares, and I could have bought back in lower too bad
@aleabitoreddit Les hyperscalers ne vont pas se faire dominer par les marges énormes qu'appliquent Micron ... Ils vont passer à l'optique plus vite que prévu pour mettre en place leur pool memory c'est beaucoup efficient et économique. Leur marge finira par s'étouffer.