Most Bitcoiners think BTC is a safe haven asset but the truth is nuanced.
It has the properties of a safe haven asset. In times of war you can take your seed phrase, cross borders and start afresh without losing your wealth.
It should be independent of the system and thrive if it collapses. These are the properties you’d expect of a safe haven.
BTC has the properties of a safe haven but to this day, in times of uncertainty and war it trades like a risk asset, very sensitive to uncertainty.
This is because the large capital pools don’t acknowledge BTC’s properties as it’s considered too new and untested. Hence it trades like the NASDAQ.
It’ll take another decade for it to gain market acceptance as a safe haven, maybe longer. When it does, it’ll give gold market cap a run for its money.
$BTC 2026 Bear Market Structure | WXY
This is how I see the structure of this Bear Market
We've already spent more time chopping between $62-78k than between $84-97k back in November-January, so now I assume we are dealing with a Double Zigzag (WXY) and this move from $60k to $79.5k (could go even higher as the next major resistance sits at $85k and the ABC target is $82.5k, so a little more upside would be quite normal) is Wave (X) between two bearish Waves (W) & (Y).
From the timing perspective, we still have ~5 months of this bear market left.
Wave (W): $126k --> $60k
Wave (X): $60k --> $80k
and now I'm expecting the final wave down - Wave (Y): $80k --> $40k (Bear Market Bottom in September-October 2026) 📍
Gold has 15-20 yrs left before technology rugs its scarcity.
BTC has 5-10 yrs to get past post quantum after that it has no challengers.
I could see a future where BTC trades sideways for 8-12 yrs remaining 5-6 figures, then 12-16 yrs out a god candle to multiple 7 figures.
The BTC/Gold pair is now testing a historical support level.
It will be interesting to see if Bitcoin can bounce from this level or not.
Next strong support near $75,000.
If you were ever jealous of people buying crypto on the cheap, and able to hold them through the cycles, think about what they did in moments like this.
The future has never been brighter.
Last night in D.C., key leaders from the U.S. government and the blockchain industry attended a private dinner hosted by Chainlink and @DigitalChamber to discuss the next stage of digital asset adoption.