Real Assets Value

Trying to build wealth and learn something investing in listed real estate

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

Wrote up $ELME after they stealth-dropped their 10-K on Friday after the market close. Biggest problem asset (Watergate 600) under contract, trades at 15% - 20% discount to liquidation value.
Link: https://t.co/BHfVNYODZM

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

So if I had to hazard a guess today, I think we'll see a strong 1-2 years in 2027-2028 but then revenue / NOI growth returns to the 2.5% - 3.5% range thereafter instead of 4-5 very strong years. All barring an actual recession as it seems we don't really have those anymore...
5/5

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

As we see more data on where US MF starts are levelling off, I'm getting more skeptical of REIT management claims that the next ~5 years could look like the post-GFC period of super-charged rent / NOI growth...
1/

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

What is real will be the benefit of incentives rolling off even if market fundamentals only "normalize".
$MAA cite competitors offering 1.25 months on average and 2-3 months for lease-up props.
Represents 10% - 25% increase in rent/revenue as they roll off.
4/

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

From the $MAA NAREIT REITWeek deck - green shoots in leasing with blends turning positive in May as new lease rates improve (albeit to a less negative number).

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

UK logistics transaction comparable - Tritax sells ~£200m portfolio to EQT Exeter at a 5.65% NIY (assuming 6.8% purchase costs). Limited details but very mid not prime locations.

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

@RecoveryTrade @JeffBeckMadDog

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

@JeffBeckMadDog @Mr_Neutral_Man @DavidBrail @robbiehendricks Looks like selling off the bottom 10% of their portfolio so likely at higher cap rates given the markets, probably not accretive to FFO...

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

@marketplunger1 One word… Costco. Have easily recouped the membership fee on berry expenditure alone. Like $7 bucks for 2 lbs of strawberries.

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

@avikXm Something like 6 years later, I continue to vacillate between whether this fact makes REIT investing more interesting or more likely to be time wasted. Doubly so given where we are in the interest rate cycle and with fears of stagflation on the horizon.

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

@JeffBeckMadDog Well I cursed it for all of us because I bought some more. Riverside re-trade incoming!

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

@kingdomcapadv @JeffBeckMadDog Solid price. Over $300k a unit and looks like a mid 5% cap rate. Unless sales under contract drop out, this is effectively all wrapped up and net liquidation value looks like ~$2.30 per share...

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

@JeffBeckMadDog Found one I've done no work on! My impression from afar has always been they've bought pretty bottom tier assets at high yields to make things work for the external manager...

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

@EllliotttB @CaseyMericle

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

@Mr_Neutral_Man Hard to step in front of a potential AI + recession freight train bearing down on office-using jobs but the supply picture is... Striking

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

After six years of pain and amidst worries about AI-driven job losses, tech headcount reductions, and the rising specter of a recession - could office fundamentals actually be positioned to lead major RE sectors over the next 12 months?

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

@JeffBeckMadDog Illiquidity is real with this one, so no way out if you're wrong...