James Chanos

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@Dean62158225 The $SPCX bots are very feisty since last night…

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

So $SPCX is forecasting $500B to $1T in AI ARR at YE 2027, on $500B of capex (10 GW increase)?! This is a 1-2x revenue/investment ratio as the entire industry is now at 0.3x. Their 3Q AI capex was only $16B. They had better get going…

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@jaysinjailagain This you…?!

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

(3) And annualized AI revenues were below $20M per MW in the 3Q ($19.5M), a far cry from the $40-50M figures that were thrown around during the quarter. And much closer to where the rest of the industry is. $SPCX

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

(2) And at a current AI ARR of $30B (3Q x 4), they are not even remotely close to a 1-2x revenue/investment ratio right now, despite the Google and Anthropic deals. $SPCX

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@newjouleorder @SmallCapSnipa $DLR has massively underperformed the S&P 500 over the past 5-10 years. Want to keep going?

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@newjouleorder @SmallCapSnipa $DLR’s pre-tax ROIC is in the low-single digits. American Tower’s is below 10%. Other than that…

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@RHouseResearch @uncovered_alpha Yes. So $0.19 of EBITDA minus $0.10 of D&A = $0.09 of EBIT, using his revenue/capex/margin model.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@SmallCapSnipa How many capital-intensive business models dependent on technology/availability from others ($NVDA, model companies, etc) have maintained 25-50% ROIC’s over the long-term? Or even the intermediate-term?

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@carney If those are nominal rates, the US adults median is probably pretty reasonable. But 17%, either real or nominal, seems a stretch, lol.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@mario_cibelli I have no idea. These things are only “obvious” in hindsight.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@OxfordAnalytics @RandolphDuke7 And yet…the $CRWV 4Q 2026 revenue estimate is up a whopping 3% since the middle of the 2Q. Despite rapidly rising GPU rental rates. Maybe ask yourself why that is.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@RepzdaCanes @OxfordAnalytics @RandolphDuke7 MW’s(not GW’s) is exactly my point. And they’re still not even close to making money on those “energized” MW’s. $CRWV

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@OxfordAnalytics @RandolphDuke7 Did it ever occur to you that gauging “demand for compute” by using spot GPU rental rates might be problematic because of how little announced capacity has actually come online?

[Beauty of A Game @BeautyOfAGame]

The last time the Milwaukee Brewers were in the World Series you could get 12 8-track tapes for only a dollar through The Gorman Thomas Tape Club®.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@ryQuant Great win, on to the World Series! #ThisIsMyCrew

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

20 GW on the ground in the next 18 months is $1T. Which they will then render obsolete by launching space-based data centers. Got it…?! $SPCX

[Jukan @jukan05]

SPCX is aggressively pushing reverse engineering to get around bottlenecks...

Racks, chillers, etc...

So they're going to vertically integrate everything they possibly can.

How do they get around patents and IP with this? Don't they get sued?

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@matthew_sigel @BTCAI156 That’s why I used “2027”, not “yesterday”, Matthew.