Expert Takeaways: Applied Optoelectronics
> 800G Volume Growth: Shipments are set to surge from 600K–700K this year to 5 million next year, and around 7 million the following year.
> 800G Production & Customers: AWS remains the primary customer, alongside demand from Oracle. Monthly capacity is expanding in Taiwan (200K–240K by year-end), Ningbo (~100K for AWS next year), and the U.S.
> 1.6T Demand Surge: Demand is projected to reach ~100K units per month next year, up from tens of thousands this year.
> 1.6T Primary Drivers: Currently led by Oracle projects (FRO and LRO), with potential AWS projects possible in the future.
$AAOI
Expert call covering optical components & datacom – 800G/1.6T adoption, Coherent vs. Lumentum vs. Asian module suppliers, AI cluster optical density, and Q4/2027 pricing & volume outlook.
$COHR $LITE $AVGO $CIEN https://t.co/luiomEqhpg
Bullish — $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CRDO $SIVE
Morgan Stanley (post-OCP, 16 Oct): “The penetration of optical communication into scale-up networks has become a long-term trend, and NPO and CPO will be important technology routes driving this change.”
Demand for compute, networking and optical gear remains strong even as power and efficiency constraints bind.
Optics is moving inside the rack. NPO commercialization is flagged by MS as a catalyst for $LITE and $COHR.
The bottleneck is still the interconnect.
Capacity and laser execution decide who captures it.
This is great for the optical stack!