Outlier Capital

Outlier Capital | Asymmetric stocks to build generational wealth.
Join +3,200 readers → Full portfolio + long theses inside, link below.

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

Dear X community,

A sincere thank you to great Substack colleagues like @ren_stocks, @PhotonCap, @futurist_lens or @FinnStockinger. They have inspired me to start to engage more seriously and consistently on this great platform.

I run Outlier Capital, now with over 3,000 subscribers. The mission is to deliver institutional-grade research on high-growth stocks, empowering the retail family to front-run institutional capital and capture asymmetric opportunities.

On Substack, I transparently share my portfolio with ambitious targets: 5x+ returns over the short-to-medium term and 50%+ annualized performance through concentrated, high-conviction positions.

My current holdings include standout names such as $SIVE, $IQE, $HIMS, $BRUN, $POET, $WOLF, and many others positioned across the AI infrastructure buildout.

Here on X, I’ll share timely insights, deep analysis, and updates on my next portfolio moves. For real-time alerts, full position transparency, and complete investment theses, head to my Substack — link in bio.

Best wishes!

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

Different layers, not a pure either/or.

$LWLG = high-performance EO polymer (modulator material). Unlocks higher bandwidth + lower power on silicon photonics. Pure IP/licensing model. Still pre-revenue, higher beta/binary.

$POET = Optical Interposer (integration platform). Real orders, production ramp H2’26, capacity scaling. Further along commercially, more dilution.

Complementary more than competitors. Pick based on risk tolerance: LWLG for asymmetric upside, POET for nearer-term traction.

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

China is industrializing the entire photonics stack!

$SIVE $IQE $AAOI $LITE $POET

Shared test beds. Policy capital. Manufacturing capacity. Vertical integration from silicon photonics → CPO → photonic computing.

While the West still debates “when,” Beijing is already building the factories, the talent pipelines, and the captive demand.

This is not a startup story.

This is a national industrial policy story.
And the companies that sit at the real chokepoints of this buildout are going to print.

[Photon Capital @PhotonCap]

China is clearly Bullish and LONG on photonics.

This is less about one startup and more about China building the full commercialization stack shared testing, capital, manufacturing access and policy support around silicon photonics and photonic computing.

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

Trump just dropped the single most bullish statement on AI this cycle.

“Whoever wins AI is going to win. That is how big it is.”

No fluff. No hedging. Just the clearest recognition from the highest level that AI is not a sector — it is the decisive geopolitical and economic battleground of the next decade.

And his own portfolio is already positioned exactly where the winners of that race sit.

This is not commentary.

This is capital allocation at the highest level confirming the thesis.

The race is on. Positioning now is extremely important. Do it properly.

[Donald Trump Stock Tracker @DJTRadar]

Trump: "Whoever wins AI is going to win. That is how big it is."

His own portfolio is packed with the exact companies positioned to win that race.

Check this out:

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

Relax. This is not 2008.

This is term premium + sticky growth expectations, not a funding crisis. Banks are better capitalized and the Fed has tools it lacked then.

AI infrastructure demand (photonics, power, optical) is structural — hyperscaler capex and real shortages — not rate-sensitive growth.

Short-term duration pain is mechanical.

The backlog story is not.

Watch the speed of the move more than the level. Quality gets cheaper here.

That’s usually the opportunity.

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

Not a bad swing at all.

$GOOG just told you they’re leaning harder into the AI infrastructure buildout.

Short-term FCF pressure is the price of admission for owning the next leg of the supercycle.

We’ve seen this movie with $NVDA , $MSFT and $META — the stocks that absorb the spend and keep compounding tend to re-rate harder on the other side.

Noise fades. Capacity and distribution don’t.

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

The 30Y at 5.27% Has Everyone Wrong About the AI Trade

30y at 5.27%. Highest since 2007. Chart looks terrifying.

Everyone: “AI trade is dead.”

Reality: higher long rates are a duration + cost-of-capital filter, not a demand destroyer.

Hyperscalers are flooding the market with debt to fund the buildout → competing with Treasuries → long end higher. Spreads wider. Some CDS up.

That’s real friction.

But $MSFT just proved self-funding + AI monetization works. Pure burn stories are getting marked down. Healthy.

The real bottlenecks (power, photonics, advanced semis) don’t care about 20-30 bps.

They care if the buildout continues.

It does.

— Outlier Capital

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

Usually when a chart goes up, that’s good news.

This is not one of those charts.

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

$HPS.A just dropped an absolute monster quarter.

Q2 results:
• Sales: $325M (+45% YoY) — all-time record.
• Gross margin: 31.5%.
• Adj. EBITDA: $53M (16.4% margin).
• Adj. EPS: $2.76.
• Backlog: +97% YoY and still at historic highs.

Data centers and AI power infrastructure are no longer a future story. They’re here, and HPS is sitting right in the middle of one of the biggest physical bottlenecks in the entire AI buildout — transformers and power quality equipment.

While most of the market chases chips and software, this is the quiet infrastructure that actually makes the power flow.

Execution is clean, margins are expanding, and the order book keeps growing.

This is what real AI infrastructure looks like.

Not hype. Real demand. Real numbers.

Extremely bullish from here.

— Outlier Capital

PS: I am long $HPS.A

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

Noise is the product!

The real signal is AI Infra and photonics.

While media screamed overbuild and bubble, the companies actually solving the interconnect bottleneck kept printing.

I flagged this exact setup months ago.

Capex is still accelerating. Demand still exceeds capacity.

Most will keep reacting to headlines.

The ones who compound already positioned.

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

Long $SIVE too!

From here $IQE still looks asymmetric.

Just raised FY26 guidance to >30% revenue growth on accelerating InP demand for AI/data centre photonics (H1 already ahead). Multi-year epiwafer deals locked with Tower for silicon photonics + CPO optical interconnects.

Still trading at a fraction of the structural pricing power that InP shortages and 1.6T/3.2T ramp should deliver.

Upstream materials leverage is real and the balance sheet is clean.

Different part of the stack from $SIVE , complementary.

Both win if optical keeps bottlenecking AI.

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

$SIVE $IQE $LITE $AAOI

$AXTI just dropped the cleanest InP print of the cycle.

Revenue beat by +40%.
EPS beat by +171%.

Management:

“We have reached an inflection point… strong customer demand for data center optical connectivity… step-function increase in our revenue… AXT is entering one of the most consequential chapters in our company’s history.”

This is no longer a backlog story.

This is AI optical demand converting into revenue and massive operating leverage.

The photonics bottleneck is real.

And it’s only getting tighter.

— Outlier Capital

PS: I am long $SIVE and $IQE .

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

$AXTI - the InP provider - has reported:

"We have reached an inflection point in our business where strong customer demand for data center optical connectivity coupled with our continued success in adding manufacturing capacity and improving productivity are driving a step-function increase in our revenue. In Q2, we recorded our highest quarterly indium phosphide revenue to date. We are working closely with our direct customers as well as major end customers to understand their expected demand and roadmaps. We believe AXT is entering one of the most consequential chapters in our company’s history. The investments we are making today—in capacity, in technology, and in our uniquely integrated supply chain—position us to meet the extraordinary demand we see building across the optical and AI infrastructure markets."

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

Strongly agree with Serenity — excellent TLDR, thank you.

This is the cleanest kill-shot yet on the “excess compute / spend pullback” narrative.

Hyperscalers just confirmed capacity is sold out into 2028 even after the latest raise. That single data point re-anchors the entire AI infrastructure cycle from “maybe peaking” back to multi-year physical bottleneck.

When substrate suppliers double capacity twice and demand still outruns supply, you’re looking at a classic early-to-mid cycle constraint.

800G/1.6T is the current wave; NPO/CPO extends the shortage well past 2027.

Gross margins targeting 50%+ in a tight market is not guidance theater — it’s pricing power at the bottleneck.

This is how physical AI chokepoints compound.

Demand is real, visibility is lengthening, and pure-play suppliers at the base of the optical stack sit in the highest-asymmetric seat.

Bullish AI Infra, Bullish Photonics.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN:

Amazon:
- Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung)
- Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027.
- Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved.

Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage.

All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS.

Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade.

AXTI:

- AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027.

This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG

- Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.)
- Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year.
- InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026.
- $130M per quarter exiting 2027

That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion"

- Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand.

"Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027.

Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five."

China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2.

This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked.

TLDR:

- Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr.
- AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand.

Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

Most people are still debating whether the Capex is “too high.”

Wrong question.

The real signal is that $AMZN is already selling 2028 capacity while demand is still outrunning supply by a wide margin.

That only happens when the unit economics of AI inference are still wildly positive and customers are locking in multi-year spend.

We’re not in the late cycle. We’re in the phase where the hyperscalers are forced to keep raising the ceiling every quarter.

That’s the part the market is finally starting to price.

Bullish AI trade.

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

$AMZN just delivered the cleanest AI demand signal of 2026.

AWS +37% — fastest growth in 18 quarters.

AI business already >$25B run-rate (triple-digit growth).

Chips business also >$25B run-rate
Trainium locked multi-year, multi-GW deals with Anthropic + OpenAI.

They’re burning FCF with ~$200B Capex… and still accelerating.

Demand is still running ahead of capacity. This is what real AI infrastructure looks like when the flywheel is spinning.

The bottlenecks (power, photonics, custom silicon, networking) just got materially more valuable.

The window to position in the true picks-and-shovels of this cycle is still open — but it won’t stay open forever.

This is how generational wealth gets built: by owning the infrastructure layer before the market fully prices the durability of the demand.

Stay focused.

— Outlier Capital

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$AMZN CRUSHED THEIR Q2 EARNINGS

• Revenue $200.6B vs Est. $196.2B
• EPS $5.75 vs Est. $1.81
• AWS Revenue $42.2B vs Est. $40.6B
• Operating Income $27.5B vs Est. $23.5B

Q3 Guidance
• Revenue $200B vs Est. $204B
• Operating Income $24B vs Est. $25B

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

@michaelsikand IMO, that degenerate is coming back stronger, having finally learned how to actually manage leverage properly when high-growth investing.

[Photon Capital @PhotonCap]

as always... we shouldn't leave the market rn at least

I do love this

"Critical bottlenecks don’t disappear."

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

@PhotonCap Appreciate the QRT massively, @PhotonCap.
Glad that line resonated. Critical bottlenecks don’t disappear — they just get mispriced!

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

Amazing post @CKCapitalxx ! It is also important not to sleep on the layer below.

$IQE just raised 2026 growth guidance to >30% on AI InP demand, and $SIVE is the pure-play high-power DFB laser arrays for CPO and external light sources (pipeline ~$800m, GF SCALE reference + POET/Jabil).

Those two are some real chokepoint.

Copper dies at these speeds. Photons don’t.

PS: I am long both.

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

@ren_stocks Great post Ren!

This is the game.
Citadel didn’t “save” anyone.

They just vacuumed up a leveraged AI book at distressed prices after the forced sellers got liquidated.

Same playbook, different decade.

Retail gets the narrative.

The real buyers get the inventory!

[Outlier Capital @outliercapx]

The market just handed us the exact AI infrastructure names at absurd discounts.

These levels feel like a gift.

Accumulating:
• $IQE → 39.6 GBP
• $SIVE → 26.9 SEK
• $MU → $739
• $SNDK → $1,016
• $NBIS → $148
• $DGXX → $3.7
• $WOLF → $20.5
• $LUNR → $11.4

Temporary macro panic ≠ broken theses.

Critical bottlenecks don’t disappear.

I’m buying this weakness.

Not financial advice.

PS: My exact moves shared in Bio link.

[Photon Capital @PhotonCap]

I think a stock becomes worth buying when three conditions line up:

1. It is a high-quality company benefiting from AI infrastructure spending.
2. It is trading below its 200-day EMA.
3. QQQ is sitting near a major support level.

When all three occur at the same time, the risk-reward starts to look attractive.