real sake guy

Ex Fed and sell-side macro analyst. Really into sake.

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

I've heard from multiple sources in the Japanese govt across diff agencies that they're running out of new policy ideas, and there isn't much left for Kishida. I strongly disagree. Time to focus on these issues + capital mkt reforms (that is, not at the expense of capital mkt).

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

I'm not in the "Japan's destined for doom" camp, but gender equality MUST BE high up on Kishida's agenda. Starting a family carries a huge asymmetric risk for women in JP compared to western countries (eg, alimony is only applicable under special circumstance, no shared custody,

[Bloomberg @business]

Over 40% of Japanese women may end up never having children, the Nikkei reported, citing a soon-to-be-published government estimate https://t.co/4yosbfqsH3

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

For decades, lawmakers in Japan (mostly male) have misunderstood and/or mis-specified this issue, and danced around it for decades by providing child subsidies and other tangential incentives. But this, imo, is the heart of the issue.

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

Must watch for anyone interested in Japan macro. Atkinson was on PM Suga's biz council and understands and articulates idiosyncrasies of Japan better than most analysts, who, imo, tend to overemphasize the role of BoJ and fiscal pol. Thanks @BCCJapan!

https://t.co/ulr03Gamhh

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

Important signal that somehow isnt getting enough coverage. For those that are worried concerned about a seismic shift of Japanese institutions appetite for USTs, I'd say grab a pint and relax.

https://t.co/INiomWHBb1

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

Nobody:

BoJ + Ueda on Friday: "By making YCC more flexible, we enhanced policy sustainability. We'd like to have market forces drive bond yield moves."

BoJ on Monday: "ok, we steppin in."

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

support financial conditions easy (steeper curve for banks, easing selling pressure on the yen, and supporting equities). All in all, it seems supportive of risk assets, and I don't see BoJ or doing a hard pivot soon.

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

Some seem to characterize yesterday's BoJ as "surprise". I was surprised that July was a live meeting and that BoJ did something, but the "tweak" was more dovish than meets the eye. The most important detail was that BoJ revised down its inflation forecast for 2024 and 2025 to

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

1.9% and 1.6%. So BoJ views this as transitory inflation (correctly imo), and with these forecast, Japan will continue to maintain its negative rates both at the short and long ends of the curve. The tweak was to sustain its accommodative policy stance while continuing to

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

mmmh.. ok, so there was a lot of fanfare about BoJ leading up to and after the YCC "tweak". JGB 10s and 30s moved, but compared to Wed, the yen is basically unchanged... we're all confused as to what to call this, but I'm going to call it non-tweak tweak....

[Catherine Kobayashi @catherinekoba12]

Former Sumo champion gives back | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News https://t.co/ryAHovUHid

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

Taking a break from macro... Check out this cool story of our good friend, Konishiki, former sumo champion. His new journey - spreading his love and passion for sumo globally.

[Catherine Kobayashi @catherinekoba12]

Former Sumo champion gives back | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News https://t.co/ryAHovUHid

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

In short, the level of JPY is not the main trigger, but the pace of depreciation can catalyze an action. If the yen weakens to 150-155 over several months, BoJ+MoF will "monitor". If it gets there in 2 weeks and create negative political headlines, then expect some response.

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

BoJ and Ueda have come under spotlight (understandably) to figure out the path of Japan's monetary policy and JPY. While they're very important, don't forget there are other significant actors (equally important, imo) in where the yen goes from here. Short 🧵:

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

at that point hadn't seen wage growth, so it was a political landmine for PM Kishida whose grip on power isn't as strong as Abe's. He had to act. Fast forward to 2023, commodities are down, NKY at 33-year, wages are up, the economy is accelerating with re-opening.

[Jamie Halse (Senjin Capital) 🇳🇿🇦🇺🇯🇵 @JamieHalse]

https://t.co/UnpNcVkZ6O

[real sake guy @realsakeguy]

How America Can Bring the Japanese Economic Miracle Stateside https://t.co/MRDZFtPkzJ