T Wolf

Sometimes you buy, sometimes you sell, sometimes it rains.

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@blknoiz06 The NgU Mind Virus is a helluva thing.

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@egr_investor Passive dominance kills the mean reversions that make factors work.

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@thoughtfulmoney @htsfhickey @adamtaggart Do index funds care about earnings? /s

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@RealRickRule preceded by a job transfer, from American workers, to the CCP.

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@JSeyff @TRowePrice Perhaps there's a correlation between Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin regressing.

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@APompliano Nah, BINOs spread the NgU Mind Virus and played everyone for fools.

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@AmericanoDeNiro @JHartFlips And go be useful already.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

The FIRE (financial independence retire early) movement has done an immense amount of harm to society

This is coming from someone who used to be a believer in FIRE, but I have realized just how much of a fallacy it is, as I have grown older

Taking a bunch of high potential income earners and convincing them that their life goal should be to pursue a net worth that allows them to check out of society is immensely damaging to the social fabric

Many of these people sit on the upper echelon of office jobs, have built great businesses, or are at the top of their field in their career field

They should be inspired to continue doing what they are best at, and ultimately, mentor and give back to the next generation who want to pursue those same goals

Instead, many of these FIRE folks become wandering retirees with a meaningless life who are trying to grasp on to money as their north star

It is a false sense of security and accomplishment. Becoming wealthy should never be a goal in the first place.

It should have always been to pursue something that adds meaning to your own life and to society

It is a completely fallacy to believe that retiring will be your source of happiness. More often than not, it has the complete opposite effect

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@AmericanoDeNiro @JHartFlips You know that's a lesbian car, right?

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

If only we could invest in historic returns...

Indexing kills mean reversion, therefore historic data even less relevant because every single risk premium exists because of mean reversion, where the market's function is to set the price of the marginal cost of capital.

We have now entered the world of mean expansion and flows. Prices are ignored by index funds, therefore risk premiums disappear.

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@Rick_Ferri @nickneal1998 @Budgetdog_ If true, then you must acknowledge that indexing is also based on backfilled data where it's assumed that indexing has no impact on the output of what it's tracking.

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@TheHurdleRate @Breedlove22 HFSP...

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@SantiagoAuFund the doomer mind virus is a helluva drug.

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@jdw100 @BobEUnlimited Doomer mind virus pandemic

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

The cult of passive assumes passive dominance has no material impact on market structure.

It does.

It's mechanically the same trade as XIV before it had its zero day in 2018.

XIV 2.0 is inevitable, and far more devastating. Probably to the point of cap-weighted indexing becoming illegal.

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

I didn't listen to this yet, but if it's not dead yet, cap weighted indexing will inevitably finish it off.

Indexing creates expansion of the mean, kills reversion. Mean reversion is required for factors to materialize.

Guess what else indexing kills...itself. Soon enough, brother, soon enough.

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@profplum99 What could possibly go wrong? /s

[T Wolf @realtwolf]

@MCCCANM