Samatheu

A V-shaped fortification (price wedge) pointing outward (attack). Pointed. Still piercing.

[Samatheu @redan_angle]

Interesting move by Bybit — USDT-settled options on Tether Gold gives traders a clean way to get gold exposure without touching spot. Hedging + speculation in one instrument. Could pull serious volume. #DeFi

Who's watching this?

[Samatheu @redan_angle]

Am I wrong here? Let me know.

[Samatheu @redan_angle]

Morning run done before the charts even wake up 🏃‍♂️ There's something about fresh air at 6am that just resets everything. Ready to face whatever the market throws at me today 💪

[MoonPay 🟣 @moonpay]

sending $100 in Solana to 5 people that like this post

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop.

I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized sense (TLDR: we're gonna replace fiat currency)

Prediction markets have two types of actors: (i) "smart traders" who provide information to the market, and earn money, and necessarily (ii) some kind of actor who loses money.

But who would be willing to lose money and keep coming back? There are basically three answers to this question:

1. "Naive traders": people with dumb opinions who bet on totally wrong things
2. "Info buyers": people who set up money-losing automated market makers, to motivate people to trade on markets to help the info buyer learn information they do not know.
3. "Hedgers": people who are -EV in a linear sense, but who use the market as insurance, reducing their risk.

(1) is where we are today. IMO there is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally "cursed" about relying on this too much. It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in. This is the slide to corposlop.

(2) has always been the idealistic hope of people like Robin Hanson. However, info buying has a public goods problem: you pay for the info, but everyone in the world gets it, including those who don't pay. There are limited cases where it makes sense for one org to pay (esp. decision markets), but even there, it seems likely that the market volumes achieved with that strategy will not be too high.

This gets us to (3). Suppose that you have shares in a biotech company. It's public knowledge that the Purple Party is better for biotech than the Yellow Party. So if you buy a prediction market share betting that the Yellow Party will win the next election, on average, you are reducing your risk.

Mathematical example: suppose that if Purple wins, the share price will be a dice roll between [80...120], and if Yellow wins, it's between [60...100]. If you make a size $10 bet that Yellow will win, your earnings become equivalent to a dice roll between [70...110] in both cases. Taking a logarithmic model of utility, this risk reduction is worth $0.58.

Now, let's get to a more fascinating example. What do people who want stablecoins ultimately want? They want price stability. They have some future expenses in mind, and they want a guarantee that will be able to pay those expenses. But if crypto grows on top of USD-backed stablecoins, crypto is ultimately not truly decentralized. Furthermore, different people have different types of expenses. There has been lots of thinking about making an "ideal stablecoin" that is based on some decentralized global price index, but what if the real solution is to go a step further, and get rid of the concept of currency altogether?

Here's the idea. You have price indices on all major categories of goods and services that people buy (treating physical goods/services in different regions as different categories), and prediction markets on each category. Each user (individual or business) has a local LLM that understands that user's expenses, and offers the user a personalized basket of prediction market shares, representing "N days of that user's expected future expenses".

Now, we do not need fiat currency at all! People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability.

Both of these examples require prediction markets denominated in an asset people want to hold, whether interest-bearing fiat, wrapped stocks, or ETH. Non-interest-bearing fiat has too-high opportunity cost, that overwhelms the hedging value. But if we can make it work, it's much more sustainable than the status quo, because both sides of the equation are likely to be long-term happy with the product that they are buying, and very large volumes of sophisticated capital will be willing to participate.

Build the next generation of finance, not corposlop.

[Monad @monad]

drop your Monad address below within the next 24 hours to receive your soulbound NFT

[Samatheu @redan_angle]

What legacy bank is actually positioned to compete with this, or are they all just watching it happen?

[Samatheu @redan_angle]

Coinbase is quietly becoming a full financial OS — AI advisor, stock options, pre-IPO access. This isn't a crypto exchange anymore. The convergence play is real and traditional finance should be nervous. #Coinbase

Who's actually going to use this?

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

I think it's healthy for us in the Ethereum world to have a more bold and open mindset to many things, particularly on the application layer and on how we see ourselves in the world.

We should not compromise on core properties: censorship resistance, open source, privacy, security (CROPS). We should not have "open mindedness" of the type that leaves people with no confidence of what security properties the L1 will still have one year from now. We should not ask ourselves questions like "do we really need light clients to be able to trustlessly verify correctness of the chain?". But especially on the layer of applications and Ethereum's interface to the world, we should be more willing to radically rethink various concepts and step outside our comfort zone.

This includes issues of technological direction, eg. "what if AI basically means that wallets as browser extensions and mobile extensions are dead within a year?"

One example last year was the shift to thinking about privacy as a first-class consideration, something we value equally to the other types of security. This implies a radically different Ethereum application stack, because the entire stack so far has not been built around privacy. Great, let's build a radically different Ethereum application stack!

An example this year is the growing work on the networking side of privacy, both inside the EF and outside.

It includes application-layer issues, eg. "what if the rest of defi is basically just universal futures markets on top of a good decentralized oracle and letting users self-organize on top of that?", and "what if the ideal decentralized oracle is just a SNARK over M-of-N small LLMs over zk-TLSes of some major news sites?"

(BTW this is interrelated with the AI issue: one consequence of AI is that it moves "applications" away from being discrete categories of behavior with discrete UIs, and more toward being a continuous space, so "build fewer apps and rely on users to self-organize around them" should inevitably expand as a pattern)

One example this year is rethinking from zero the role of L2s, and what kind of L2s are actually most synergistic and additive to Ethereum.

It also includes culture. This is a big part of "the whole milady thing" for myself, @AyaMiyagotchi and others. Yes, it's a silly meme. Yes, I find the political takes of some milady partisans cringe and sometimes outright bootlickerish (though other milady partisans are quite the opposite). But the core underlying subtext, the message behind the message, is: rip off the suit and tie. If you have your suit and tie on, be willing to grab the nearest wine glass and spill it all over your suit and tie, so you have no choice but to rip it off and reclaim your body's full flexibility and freedom. Actually imagine yourself doing this the next time you get invited to a richpeopleslop formal gala dinner. Take the preconception that you are "respectable", write it down on a piece of paper, crumble it up and burn it. The psychological baptism of doing this leads to the intellectual baptism of unlocking greater creativity and expanding overton windows.

For too long, our algorithm in Ethereum has been: we have this existing ecosystem, what's the logical next step to make it one step better? Now, our algorithm should be: we have this L1 that is amazing and will become more amazing, we have a growing array of tools, both those built within our ecosystem and outside it, what are the most valuable things to build, knowing what we know now? If YOU had to write the section of the 2014 Ethereum whitepaper that talked about applications, and take a first-principles perspective of what makes sense in defi, decentralized social, identity, and elsewhere, what would you write? At least take the step of marking all path-dependence concerns down to zero, pretend for a brief moment that the Ethereum chain today has exactly zero usage and you're the one suggesting or building the first apps, and see what comes out. Do this even if you're the one building today's existing apps. This is how Ethereum can grow back stronger.

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

The best way to build an L2 is to lean into the L1's offerings (security, censorship resistance, proofs, data avail...) more, and reduce your logic to just being a sequencer and a prover (if based, just a prover) over the core execution.

This is the combination of trust minimization and efficiency that the 2010s enterprise blockchain crew wanted, but was never able to achieve. Now, with Ethereum L2s, you can achieve it. And we've already seen successful examples of the L1's features protecting users' rights if something on the L2 goes wrong.

[Samatheu @redan_angle]

What does this mean for defi protocols that have been flying under the radar — are they next?

[Samatheu @redan_angle]

Regulators are getting SERIOUS 🔍 The CFTC just brought in a blockchain forensics expert from the SEC crypto task force. They're building real infrastructure to understand this space. Bullish on smarter oversight? #Crypto Who's watching this closely?

[Ansem @blknoiz06]

trump really put ufc on the white house lawn and gave out prizes in crypto, & the fighters were shilling memecoins on the octagon after winning

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Michael Saylor's 'Strategy' buys 1,587 Bitcoin worth $105 million.

[Altcoin Daily @AltcoinDaily]

You hear about the guy who put $1000 into the SpaceX IPO and made $25,000, but you don't hear about the hundreds who put $1000 and are left with $0.10.

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

$BTC to $200,000.

$ETH to $8,000.

All of this will happen next bull market.

Are you positioned?

[Samatheu @redan_angle]

The crypto market keeps moving while most people aren't paying attention. Patterns forming across multiple assets suggest we're in a pivotal accumulation phase.

Data doesn't lie. Who's tracking this? #Crypto

[Kalshi Crypto @Kalshi_Crypto]

JUST IN: BlackRock just deposited $172M worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum to Coinbase Prime

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: $150,000,000 worth of shorts liquidated from the crypto market following US-Iran peace agreement.

[Ted @TedPillows]

ETH in 2021: $1,700
ETH in 2022: $1,700
ETH in 2023: $1,700
ETH in 2024: $1,700
ETH in 2025: $1,700
ETH in 2026: $1,700
ETH before BitMine buying: $1,700
ETH after BitMine buying: $1,700
ETH before ETF approval: $1,700
ETH after ETF approval: $1,700
ETH during anti-crypto President: $1,700
ETH during pro-crypto President: $1,700
ETH before US-Iran war: $1,700
ETH after US-Iran war: $1,700

Performance of $ETH is an absolute joke.