#BTC
Back in May 2026, Bitcoin indeed rejected from $82.5k, falling short of the green 21-Month EMA resistance
As anticipated, Bitcoin rejected from here, broke down from the purple 50-Month EMA and enter Bearish Acceleration over time (see post below)
And now months later, Bitcoin is back at these very same levels, once again
Break the Downtrend and Bitcoin will confirm entry into a new technical Macro Uptrend
Reject from here however and price will maintain its series of Lower Highs
History suggests there's still time for price to continue its Downtrend
Even though understandably it's tempting to throw long-standing Bitcoin price principles out the window, especially after such an impressive move like this
But as long as price continues to print Lower Highs, then this move could be rendered as a Relief Rally
Overall, the Macro Downtrend is the line in the sand
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
🚨 Is Microstrategy's Bitcoin flywheel breaking?
Strategy currently holds 843,775 Bitcoin, acquired for $63.7B at an average cost basis of $75,476 per coin. With $BTC trading around $64k, the treasury is sitting on nearly $10B in unrealized losses.
But the drawdown isn't even the biggest concern.
The first crack in their system came back in May earlier this year, when Strategy sold 32 BTC to cover stock dividends. Pretty insignificant amount right? Yup. But it shattered the 'diamond hands' narrative Strategy built over the last few years.
As it was more of a psychological blow (rather than monetary), the market quickly priced the possibility of future BTC sales, and BTC dropped 20% (74k --> 59k) within 4 days.
To understand the severity of the reaction, its important to understand Strategy's model:
BTC rises ➡️ MSTR/STRC trades higher ➡️ Strategy issues stock ➡️ raise more capital ➡️ buy more BTC ➡️ repeat. As long as $BTC is uptrending, the flywheel keeps spinning.
The problem comes during drawdowns.
When $BTC falls, raising capital becomes harder. Now here's where things get interesting. Whenever $STRC drops below $95, its dividend rate goes up by 0.5%, and every increase is PERMANENT. The dividends started at 9%, and has already climbed to 12% within a year. Each increase is estimated to be an extra $53M in annual obligations 😬
Onramp's CEO described it as: "A capital structure that survives volatility only by adding permanent obligations has a finite number of cycles."
So now the concern is the game theory. Strategy has shown it's willing to sell BTC under pressure, and the entire market knows where its weak spot lies.
Do you think Strategy's Bitcoin model survives? Or will some actors try and exploit its weaknesses? Let us know below 👇
Follow us at @VettedLabs to stay informed.
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