Tesla and SpaceX over the next few months:
• June 18: CRSP index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $4-7B in forced buying by passive funds.
• June 18: FTSE Russell index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $6-9B in forced buying by passive funds.
• June 26: MSCI index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $3-5B in forced buying by passive funds.
• End of June: HW3 Tesla owners get FSD V14 Light. Expect possible delays.
• July 2: Tesla Q2 vehicle and energy storage delivery report.
• July 6: NASDAQ 100 index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $8-12B in forced buying by passive funds.
• Late July: Tesla Q2 earnings call.
• Early-mid August: SpaceX Q2 earnings call, their first earnings call as a public company.
• 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q2 earnings released: 30% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 12% of all outstanding shares).
NOTE: Since only about 40% of all outstanding shares are eligible for early release lockups, that 30% above equates to 12% of all outstanding shares. Elon's shares, board member shares, and some others, are subject to an extended lockup of 366 days. Together, the shares subject to these extended lockup restrictions represent 60% of SpaceX's outstanding shares.
• August 21: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• September 10: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• September 25: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• September: Indexes rebalance. SpaceX will then have a higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight.
• October 2: Tesla Q3 vehicle and energy storage delivery report.
• October 12: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• October 26: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• Late October: Tesla Q3 earnings call.
• Early-mid November: SpaceX Q3 earnings call.
• 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q3 earnings released: 28% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 11.2% of all outstanding shares).
• December 9: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• December: Indexes rebalance again. SpaceX will then have an even higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight.
(The Cursor acquisition will likely affect these lockup percentages slightly)
mark this post.
june 3 i called the top of $QQQ at 748. it topped at 748.
june 9 i called the bottom at 688. it bottomed at 688 hours after i posted.
both timestamped. both public. both with the chart attached.
two calls. two exact numbers. two perfect hits.
while everyone else was telling you to "wait for the signal" and "dont trust the bounce", i was telling you the EXACT LEVELS. up to the dollar.
that's the difference between vague calls and real calls.
now here's the next leg. and this is the big one.
the bottom of this cycle is IN. the bounce off 688 is the start of the next leg up. not a relief rally. not a dead cat. the real thing.
$QQQ rallies 7% from here. $SPY rallies 5%. new all time highs are coming.
after that - the next weakness window is july 10 through early august. mark it. that's when i raise cash again.
right now im positioned heavy. names ive been adding into the weakness - $AEVA $DRAM $AAOI $RKLB $APP $INTC $OUST $AXTI $UMAC etccc- all setting up to lead this leg.
ill teach u everything i know from A to Z.... never miss out on anothr cycle again
$AMZN looks like the bottom is in. I’m pricing in a potential +20% move over the next 90 days.
1️⃣ Bull Cycle Framework: Bullish
2️⃣ Combined Signal System: Bullish
3️⃣ Plus we have prior resistance now acting as support.
$TSLA
AN EXPLOSIVE MOVE FOR TESLA IS COMING 🧐
In the next 3 to 5 weeks
The move towards 🎯 $520 starts 👀
Consolidation above an upwards sloping “Weekly 50SMA” 📈
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell on CNBC yesterday on Elon Musk:
"I think he is very misunderstood across the board. I want people to know him. In fact, he participated in some of the discussions that we’ve had over the last couple of weeks with investors.
The investors left saying: ‘I had no idea that is the man.’
I said: That’s the man I’ve worked for 24 years. I love him."
Gwynne joined SpaceX in 2002 as the company’s 11th employee. She’s awesome. What a journey.
Semiconductors like $NVDA and $AVGO are setting up.
I expect my June 15th timing cycle for the bulls to try and defend the lows.
Amazing companies overall at fair prices.
Not the best discounted price, but fair enough to make me happy.
Let's see what's in store for the rest of June.
18 - 24 Month $600+ $TSLA target is in the works 🎯
Big squeeze setting up on the higher timeframes.
We’re building an ascending triangle between $400–$475 and I think we chop in this range for 3–6 months before any real breakout.
If we finally clear it, 600+ can come fast.
I’m staying patient and will share when I go long.
I've been getting so many questions about what I think will happen on SpaceX IPO day. Let me tell you the truth... no one knows. But I bet it's going to be super exciting.
What often happens with highly anticipated IPOs is that excitement drives the stock up quickly in the beginning. Everyone wants in, headlines are everywhere, and FOMO takes over. Expectations get stretched, and the stock can often end up running ahead of the actual business.
Then, the hard part comes.
The same people who were excited at the top start questioning everything during the first big pullback. Some sell out of frustration, others lose patience, and sentiment swings from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism.
Meanwhile, the SpaceX team keeps executing.
Historically, many great companies spend years in a quiet accumulation phase after its IPO. The stock goes nowhere, interest fades, and most people stop paying attention. That's often when smart long-term investors quietly build positions while the fundamentals continue to improve.
Eventually, if the business delivers, institutions step in. Pension funds, mutual funds, endowments, and large investors begin allocating serious capital. That's when a new phase starts, and the stock gets re-rated based on what the company has actually become rather than what people hoped it would become.
But the question I'm asking myself is will SpaceX follow this exact path?
Nobody knows. It could even rocket to $3-4T on day 1 and never look back as well...
But if history is any guide, I wouldn't be surprised to see early hype, a painful shakeout, a long period of boredom, and then a much bigger move years later as Starlink, launch services, AI infrastructure, and Mars-related missions become a reality.
Always remember, the biggest gains are often made by the people who can stay focused on the business while everyone else is focused on the stock price. The stock and the business are two different animals, and if you can stay laser focused on the long-term and ignore the noise, I believe the ones that hold long-term will be rewarded tremendously.
$QQQ Monthly Wave Count Update
The original count was published on 03/25/2023 when QQQ was trading near 312.
The first update was posted on 09/19/2024 when QQQ was trading near 491.
Today QQQ is trading above 700 and the larger degree 5th wave remains in progress.
This is not a trading wave count.
It is an investor map designed to identify the primary trend and the long-term path of least resistance.
Monthly wave counts are measured in years, not weeks. The objective is not to forecast the next pullback, but to track the progression of the larger secular advance as it unfolds over time.
With Q2 ending in a few weeks and the AI-driven expansion continuing across semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and data centers, it is time to update the count and extend the 5th wave projection.
The market will continue to experience corrections, pullbacks, and periods of volatility along the way.
The larger framework remains intact.
$SPX $SPY
It’s been fun watching the bull and bear debates on SpaceX. Kinda reminds me of early Tesla days. Those bear cases didn't age too well.
There has never been a company like SpaceX. I would not bet against that.