Red Dot Astronaut

Wadio?

[Red Dot Astronaut @RedDotAstronaut]

@hardestgeezer Russ you are a god damn legend

[Ryan Holiday @RyanHoliday]

Relax. Whatever it is, you’re probably taking it too seriously.

[Braden Dennis 📊 @BradoCapital]

I own 20 stocks.

They all have KPIs that move the needle for their business. They provide signal in a world of noise.

Here is the list and just one important KPI that I track for each one:

[Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil]

The adoption of cellphones by Keralan fishermen is, I believe, the most stunning example of the contribution of information technology to market performance.

Take a look at this graph for background: in three different regions of Kerala, phones were adopted at different times.
Kozhikode got cellphones before Kannur, who got them before Kasaragod. Adoption by fishermen was fast when phones were finally introduced:
Now look at what happened to the price of fish after phones entered the scene:
The dispersion in prices virtually disappeared! The author of the study wrote about this that:

"Before any region had mobile phones, the degree of price dispersion across markets within a region on any given day is high, and there are many cases where the price is zero (i.e., waste). However, within a few weeks of mobile phones being introduced in Region I, there is a sharp and striking reduction in price dispersion. Prices across markets in the region rarely differ by more than a few rupees per kilogram on any day, compared to cases of as much as 10 Rs/kg prior to the introduction of mobile phones. In addition, the prices in the various markets rise and fall together and the week-to-week variability within each market is much smaller, since catchment zone-specific quantity shocks are now spread across markets via arbitrage. Further, there are no cases of waste in this region after phones are introduced.

"By contrast, price behavior in regions II and III appears largely unchanged after phones are introduced in region I. However, after mobile phones are introduced in region II, prices again become much less dispersed across markets on any given day, less variable within markets over time, and waste is ultimately eliminated, whereas region III again remains unchanged. Finally, the same pattern holds once region III adds phones."

Efficient information transmission enables efficient markets. It's amazing what technology can do.

Read the study here: https://t.co/JcgGQp3G0C

[Red Dot Astronaut @RedDotAstronaut]

@johncoogan Well done!

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

The most meaningful life hack is saying no to the things that drain energy and saying yes to the things that create it.

[Mighty Action Heroes 💪 @PlayMightyHero]

AND AWAY WE GO!! 🚀 🚀🚀

Open Beta is here. Live permanently, anyone can play.

See you on the battlefield. ✊ https://t.co/EmOhb9LYY4

[Tim Ferriss @tferriss]

If someone asked me to give investing advice to a 30-year-old today who had just made their first million, I would first point them somewhere else. I’m not a financial advisor and don’t think I’m qualified to give anyone financial advice. The particulars matter too much. But if they insisted, I might say:

(1) If you want to play in early-stage tech investing (or anything high-risk, high-reward), ensure you have a plan for developing an ENORMOUS informational advantage. Aim to develop new skills and relationships through portfolio companies so that you can win over time, even if you “fail” with many bets going to zero. Only bet what you are comfortable losing and what you can recoup in other ways. Though my angel investing snowballed, I began with $10K checks and advising for sweat equity. Think of this as tuition for a real-world MBA. Are you willing to move to the hub of activity to ensure the best possible information and deal flow, as I did when I moved to SF lifetimes ago? Or make commensurate commitments or sacrifices to ensure you are in a position to win? If not, I’d suggest choosing a different game. Other people will take the initiatives that you won’t, and they will beat you. Much of early-stage investing is cooperative, but let’s not kid ourselves, a lot of it is competitive, and not everyone will podium finish.

(2) For the rest—which could be everything—follow Buffett’s advice. Keep it simple.

One cautionary example of doing the opposite: I spotted the COVID curve ball early, and I made a lot of very “sophisticated” (complicated) decisions related to investing, and the associated research, diligence, phone calls, and so on chewed up an unbelievable amount of time and energy. Eighteen to twenty-four months later, I’d done very well but decided to look at how passive S&P 500 returns would’ve added up over the same period, and… they were roughly the same. Of course, you can’t always bank on this outcome, but beware of seeking complexity if you’ve been rewarded for problem-solving throughout your life. Looking back over the last 15+ years, the handful of investment decisions that made all the difference have been simple and were somewhat obvious to me, no major gear-grinding required.

(3) Knowing when to buy isn’t enough. Have policies and rules for when you will sell, or the universe will punish you with very bad and very expensive decisions.

(4) Don’t discount luck, including lucky timing. I started angel investing seriously in 2008 and hit a golden window of converging trends, cheap valuations (by today’s standards), and an uncrowded playing field. The financial crisis had culled the herd of a ton of investors and fair-weather founders. It was a target-rich environment, even for someone with very little to invest. Micro-VCs were just cracking out of their shells, and the big players hadn’t started assailing the seed stage stuff. In retrospect, it was a wildly rare combo of things. I don’t believe I could replicate what I did in 2008–2012 now.

(5) Personally, I’ve largely stepped back from angel investing to double down on writing and the podcast (The Tim Ferriss Show, soon to hit 1B downloads). This comes from a desire for more predictability and less stress. I love the excitement of startups, and I’ve had some lucky wins, but I don’t find it nearly as interesting as developing creative muscles that bring in forecastable revenue year after year. For me, that has compounded more reliably than the all-or-nothing bets. Massive ups and downs in sectors like crypto also take a toll that reduces my creative batteries. In this chapter of my life, I think simplicity is the name of the game (e.g., finding one decision that removes 100 decisions).

(6) Over-optimizing is just as bad, if not worse, than under-optimizing. Past a certain point, buying extra Skittles just doesn’t fucking matter. So, a note to self: stop fiddling around with your goddamn spreadsheets and get more interesting hobbies on the calendar. What hobbies? Exactly.

(7) If we assume the point of investing is ultimately to improve your quality of life and the quality of life of those you most care about, investments that consistently add stress over long periods of time probably don’t make sense. Money is traded for things or experiences that catalyze certain feelings. If your investments are generating the opposite spectrum of feelings, it might be time to reassess.

It’s easy to miss the forest for the trees. Money is a means, not an end.

And in the end, most things matter very, very little. Do what helps you sleep at night and wake up with a low heart rate. To me, those are the hallmarks of a world-class investor who gets the big picture.

https://t.co/CVXVWAKuGM

[Jungle @jungle_xyz]

The New Meta ⚡

More Than A Game

FTW: For The Win 🏆

[andrew chen @andrewchen]

We've hit the 1 year mark!!!! 🥳🥳🥳

A year ago, we raised GAMES FUND ONE, our first $660M fund focused on games. 25 investments and 10 new hires later, we’ve learned so much.

To celebrate, I'm going to share some slides we used to raise the fund. Yes, even VCs have to pitch :)

[Rowan Cheung @rowancheung]

6.92 billion people are about to have access to ChatGPT through their phones.

But yet, the average person still has no clue how to prompt ChatGPT properly.

The top 10 ChatGPT prompts that will save you hours a day:

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

On the last day of every quarter, I perform a simple self check-in.

It’s a practical way to reflect on progress, assess my heading, and adjust accordingly.

Ask yourself these questions today:

[Arjun Mahadevan (Mr. LLC 🇺🇸) @ArjunMahadevan]

Non-fiction raises your floor, but fiction raises your ceiling...

The fiction books everyone must read:

1. Gates of Fire by Steven Pressfield

The Spartans stood 300 strong against the invading millions of the Persian army leaving only one Spartan squire to tell the tale...

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Why this sudden meltdown in bank stocks?

A couple of interesting theories and charts are doing the rounds, so let's have a look under the hood.

A thread.

1/

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

I made a list of 10 things I know I’d regret on my deathbed.

It was illuminating and inspiring.

Here’s my list (and why everyone should make one):

[Nick Huber @sweatystartup]

What is one product under $250 that has impacted your life the most?

[Jon Wu @jonwu_]

I just took my longest ever break from Twitter to rework my habits and routines for 2023.

I'm back.

And after a month of testing, I feel:
- happier
- more productive
- less distracted

Here's my plan to win this year with ease, and a template for you to do the same:

[Marius Hauken @mhauken]

You're not using the Notes app on your iPhone to its full potential.

8 features you might not know about:

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

I recently came across an article written by a young father with terminal cancer.

Its message is deeply moving and inspiring.

Here’s the powerful lesson everyone needs to hear:

[Cameron Winklevoss @cameron]

Earn Update: An Open Letter to @BarrySilbert