I believe prediction markets are going to become a much larger aspect of financial markets in the coming years. Today these markets are full of young people gambling on stupid things like what words are mentioned at a press conference, what color tie someone wears to an event, or if certain cultural events occur or not. These types of childish markets will either be regulated away or they will fall in relevance as more traditional finance-related markets become the dominant use case. The most interesting part of prediction markets for investors is the ability to isolate individual data points in their capital allocation strategy. Rather than having to buy indirect exposure to interest rates, prediction markets allow you to exclusively bet on what the exact interest rate will be at the next Fed meeting. Rather than buying or selling various assets in anticipation of a recession, prediction markets allow you to directly bet on whether a recession happens or not.
And prediction markets also allow you to wager capital on individual earnings report data points (ex: Tesla car deliveries) instead of having to buy a company’s stock and take the full exposure to the entire earnings report.
An obvious use case for these types of markets would be farmers who are looking to leverage prediction markets as a replacement for their current hedging or insurance strategies. Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the world, recently announced their intention to double down on commodities for these use cases. Given my belief in prediction markets for investors, and @Kalshi’s agreement in the same theme, I am excited to announce this morning that Kalshi has partnered with ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: $BRR) to launch a dedicated institutional-grade research offering that will exclusively cover prediction markets.
This new product is available to any paying members of ProCap Insights, our agentic research offering. We have been using our agentic AI research system to dig through the Kalshi data over the last few days and the findings are incredibly interesting.
We have found numerous times where Kalshi traders called the bluff on Wall Street analysts and were right. We have found significantly mispriced markets on Kalshi and traditional exchanges. And we have found economic data points that were confirmed on Kalshi days before they were reported in the legacy system. I believe the combination of agentic AI with prediction market data will help investors be better informed, while positioning them to make more money. Our team is excited about this partnership and looking forward to sharing the various insights we find. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told Reuters the following about our partnership: “prediction markets turn uncertainty about real-world events into actionable signals. We’re partnering with ProCap Financial to bring wisdom-of-the-crowds intelligence directly to financial research, so both retail and institutional investors can benefit from this data and analysis.”
You can subscribe to read the research: https://t.co/ZPn8rTjHOw
heres what most people are missing about why Morgan Stanley launching Bitcoin ETF is the most bullish thing ever-
1) it means the market is MUCH bigger than even crypto professionals anticipated, especially to reach NEW customers. It is unheard of for a vanilla ETF product to launch TWO YEARS after the first to market has already secured the liquidity throne (IAU famously tried a year later, and never caught up). This signals that despite IBIT being the fastest ETF in history to reach $80Bn in AUM (roughly 1/5th the time it took for second place VOO), there is enough untapped interest as viably researched and ascertained through MS' proprietary wealth channels that they are willing to bet that a branded product has commercial viability. it means we are still so early
2) it means that Bitcoin is "socially" important just as much as it is "financially" important as a product to offer to customers. Consider the fact that for being "digital gold" there are virtually no branded gold ETFs in existence, yet for Bitcoin there is. This is because every asset manager knows that having a Bitcoin ETF communicates that they are forward thinking, young, and a little edgy that allows targeting the most challenging investor cohort that everyone wants to reach: UHNW Independent Investors. Morgan Stanley is making the bet that even if their ETF doesn't scale to blockbuster success, there's an intangible benefit that will help build their clout, especially given their focused attention on monetizing E-Trade and crypto via trading/ tokenization partnerships. This becomes especially more relevant as a positive externality if it helps recruit top talent vs competitors (not all IBs are the same!)
3) it is at the core a defensive move against platform disintermediation and fee leakage. By launching their own BTC ETF after IBIT already consolidated liquidity, Morgan Stanley is implicitly acknowledging a hard truth: DISTRIBUTION owns the customer, not product superiority. They are not going to let advisors default to third parties by outsourcing the the economic rent. that's why at first glance while this launch looks irrational through a pure AUM lens, also totally inevitable through a PLATFORM ECONOMICS lens
when i think about all these three things, im even more bullish about @bitwise- it means the TAM is bigger, the social capital more important, and distribution more powerful as the platform advantages that are uniquely verticalized for crypto become even more proprietary. Noone understands this and serves advisors in better than Bitwise, already the leader in the #1 crypto index ETF in the US, #1 leader in Solana ETF, and in my humbly biased opinion, the #1 value-add Bitcoin and crypto access provider across its integrated staking solutions and custom strategies
bullish Morgan Stanley and Bitwise as a proud alum of both
We often talk about power, but this profile on Kathryn Wylde shows what it actually looks like in practice. Love seeing the spotlight on a woman who has spent decades building bridges and getting things done behind the scenes in New York. Incredible work, @polinapompliano !
I spent weeks shadowing New York’s most powerful woman.
I interviewed Gov. Kathy Hochul, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, ex-Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, and more than 20 others.
The definitive profile of Kathryn Wylde, CEO of the Partnership for NYC:
https://t.co/UbyfhANv2S
This is our executive team at ProCap Financial.
Each person brings different skills and experience, but we are united in a single understanding of the future:
"The age of abundance is coming and bitcoin is the hurdle rate."
$BRR
ProCap BTC just announced we are appointing Renae Cormier as our CFO.
@renaecormier recently served as CFO of Semler Scientific, the 2nd public company in US history to adopt bitcoin as the treasury reserve asset.
I am excited to welcome Renae in advance of our deal with $BRR
Proposal 4 (authorize preferred stock) at @SemlerSci's September 5th meeting requires 50% of all outstanding shares to pass.
Call (855) 206-1113 or email [email protected] to vote.
Every vote matters.
Go vote as soon as possible if you hold $SMLR!
I'm thrilled to welcome Nick Colletta to @SemlerSci as Treasurer. He’ll be helping us execute our bitcoin treasury strategy.
Nick was previously a manager in @Deloitte’s Blockchain and Digital Assets group.
Welcome aboard, @CollettaNick.
Passive capital is chasing bitcoin to $1,000,000+ with @saylor.
- Long-term CAGR for bitcoin (~20%) vs S&P 500
- The rise of bitcoin treasury companies
- Will treasury companies trade below 1x mNAV?
- MSTR to join the S&P 500?
- Bitcoin gold parity
Thrilled to announce that $SMLR has launched CardioVanta, a new subsidiary that seeks to unlock the value of future medical business opportunities -- complementing our #Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
$SMLR appoints Joe Burnett @IIICapital as Director of Bitcoin Strategy. Announces three-year plan to own 105,000 #Bitcoins by Year-End 2027. So fired up to have Joe on board to help with this exciting new chapter in Semler's $BTC mission. 🚀
“We’re focused on becoming a powerhouse in #Bitcoin.”
New episode just released featuring Chairman Eric Semler and CFO Renae Cormier of Semler Scientific $SMLR.
Hear all about the company’s plans to aggressively stack Bitcoin and climb the leaderboard of public Bitcoin treasuries.
Timecodes:
00:00 Semler Scientific's vision and investment case
2:13 Semler Scientific's priority as a Bitcoin treasury
3:37 Adopting Bitcoin after Michael Saylor
9:11 KPIs, mNAV
12:00 Renae Cormier introduction
14:25 Buying more Bitcoin
15:16 "Volatility is vitality"
16:47 Balancing the healthcare innovation vs. Bitcoin
18:46 What is QuantaFlo?
22:26 Identifying systemic chronic health issues
23:47 Dr. Semler's lifesaving invention
26:00 Aggressive Bitcoin strategy
27:42 How to buy more Bitcoin
28:13 "Bitcoin Treasury Pioneer"
28:33 Is Bitcoin misunderstood?
31:15 Bitcoin in 10 years
34:23 Eric Semler's Bronx Baseball Dreams