Peter Doyle

Here only for and about African matters. For everything and everyone else, find me at Bluesky at @retepelyod.bsky.social

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

Global policy on warming is utterly chaotic—unfocussed and unaccountable—which is why it is failing.

What’s missing is the economics.

Give me 40 odd mins to explain how to put policy on track.

My “bold” presentation to stop the world overheating.

https://t.co/8dcnUFWCrQ

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

@daddyhope Perhaps you didn’t understand the impossible debt challenges the international community imposed on him from his start … and he possibly didn’t understand them either.

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

@AmbokoJH Yes Juliens. Your last is my point exactly.

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

Has anyone asked why Kenya needs BOTH a sovereign wealth fund AND an infrastructure fund ?

[Julians Amboko @AmbokoJH]

The government of Kenya now says it is targeting the country's debut commercial oil by December 2026 & full ramp-up by 2032 following approval of the South Lokichar Basin Field Development Plan.

The Ministry of Energy has granted Gulf Energy E&P BV the green light to proceed with development of Block T6 & Block T7, coming just two months after Tullow Oil plc announced completing the sale of its entire working interest to Gulf Energy's affiliate, Auron Energy E&P Ltd.

Disclosures by the Ministry of Energy show that the total investment needed to fully develop the six discoveries is approximately US$ 6.1 billion with Phase I of the project expected to produce 20,000 barrels of oil per day before being scaled up to 50,000 barrels per day under Phase II.

PS: Important to observe that this announcement comes a month after publication of the Draft Sovereign Wealth Fund Bill 2025 (see quoted tweet for breakdown)

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

So does the World Bank celebrate when the inflation target is missed ?

[Association of Kenyan Economists @AK_Econs]

@retepelyod

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

@BrankoMilan Absolutely. But my suggestion is that the explanation is less to be found in mainstream/neoliberal economics than in understanding the extreme difficulty in maintaining the balance of power, despite Adam Smith’s optimism on that score.

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

Many Africans and their diaspora follow Sowell’s brand of economics.

Yet he mocks everything by which they secured their multiple liberations in the 20th Century. including his own.

[Rufaro @rufarogz]

The clarity of Sowell’s thinking and writing is phenomenal.

I’ve read several of his books and aspire to read all 45 plus of them.

Some, like A Conflict of Visions, I’ll re-read every year.

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

@reubenmuhindi Worse than tragic : criminal.

https://t.co/UfymcnCIBB

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

@jsblokland @AK_Econs Simple and incorrect … because it omits stock adjustments.

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

@amenya_nelson Yes Nelson, but what he says here is also false on the core substance.

None of the sensitive tax proposals survived, and the primary balance target in FB 2024 was withdrawn completely.

Administrative changes went forward, but none of the fireworks.

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

IMF Disgrace: Senegal

My assessment and recommendations.

https://t.co/UfymcnCaM3

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

IMF Disgrace: Senegal

My assessment and recommendations.

https://t.co/UfymcnCaM3

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

He understood deeply.

[Africanus @AfroEconomicus]

Debt burdened countries, including Kenya, are significantly reducing spending in education, healthcare & vital public services to service debts - deepening the crisis in health & education.

Kenyans know;
1. This is 💯 true.
2. The solution is fiscal prudence, not debt relief.

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

@KinyanBoy Amen. Celebrate people while they are alive.

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

Kenya is paying a high price for its globally high prices.

[IEA Kenya @IEAKenya]

🚨𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐁𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐀𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐭!!🚨

The Consequence of a Strong Currency on Kenya’s Trade Competitiveness

Read More>>https://t.co/qK0abltpEV

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

This all sounds great … but is inconsistent with what the IMF is demanding for the trajectory of Kenya’s primary balance.

Something has to give.

[Julians Amboko @AmbokoJH]

President William Ruto has yet again spoken about the planned set up of a National Infrastructure Fund. First time was on Oct 4th, see quoted tweet.

He says we should be seeing a Bill taken to the National Assembly anchoring its establishment.

From what the President says, part of the capitation of the National Infrastructure Fund will be drawn from proceeds from privatisation.

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

And let us see if the IMF notice.

[Kwame Owino @IEAKwame]

Folks, in this brief, my colleague reconciled the stock and flow of kenya's Public debt for a decade starting in 2013 and found a discrepancy equivalent to 5% of GDP. 👇

https://t.co/QDy4lggFLB

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

@Benchimolium @AK_Econs They don’t give Nobel’s to those who have passed.

So sadly Stan Fischer’s opportunity has gone.

[Peter Doyle @retepelyod]

tsk tsk

Populations:

Ethiopia 132.1 million
Kenya 56.4 million
Botswana 2.3 million

So you bet, it’s a big deal to the Batswana. https://t.co/vdlO5rqKW7