Jonathan Benchimol

Economist, Research Department, Bank of Israel. Co-organizer @VIMacro_org. AE @ IREF & IF. Previously @Harvard @ESSEC @SorbonneParis1. All views are my own.

[Jonathan Benchimol @Benchimolium]

📣 What if central bank statements do not just describe global financial conditions — but help shape them?

I am pleased to share our paper, “The Monetary Policy Statement Database: An LLM Application to Global Financial Conditions” now published in @bis_org IFC Bulletin

🧵 1/7

[Jonathan Benchimol @Benchimolium]

I find this so beautiful, thank you @MATLAB and @DynareTeam

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

Today I am posting Lecture 2 of my course on Geoeconomics at Oxford. It covers the history of the field and its open areas of research:

https://t.co/FPX74i0iEb

Since I am fond of the history of thought, I spent perhaps too many slides on it. But I have been reading about geoeconomics and grand strategy since high school. My love affair with the field began when I read Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 in my junior year, and later, a book by two Spanish admirals that summarized the ideas of Alfred Mahan and Halford Mackinder. So I felt I could indulge myself.

I also treat the German-language tradition in detail, since it is less familiar to English-speaking readers. Carl Schmitt, for instance, has gained prominence lately, whatever one thinks of him.

One thing the slides leave out: in class, I spent a good deal of time outlining ideas for new papers. This is a growing field, and young researchers have ample scope to make substantial contributions. But those ideas, really suggestions, are harder to put on slides.

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

I just finished teaching the first lecture of the course “Geoeconomics Uncovered: Theory Meets Evidence” at Oxford, so I decided to post the slide deck:

https://t.co/8lcVCInfi4

This was a 90-minute, big-picture lecture: what is geoeconomics, why does it matter, and what can economists do in this field?

It draws on several plenary talks I have given over the past year, so you may have seen some of these slides before. But I have many new followers, and some are clearer than before.

During the rest of the week, I will post more of these slide decks. The next one will be on the history of the field.

PS: Oxford is such a lovely place. Unfortunately, a country that gave us Newton, Darwin, and Turing cannot keep escalators running at Heathrow.

[Jonathan Benchimol @Benchimolium]

@Guide_en_Israel 💙💙💙

[Jonathan Benchimol @Benchimolium]

@fr_amodeo Literally

[Ivan Werning @IvanWerning]

Excited to FINALLY release toughest+most rewarding paper I've worked on...

….we attack a 150 year old Walras question that's gone unanswered, not for lack of trying (Hicks, Samuelson, Arrow; our chances?😱)...

Q: Is the market equilibrium stable or unstable?¯\_(ツ)_/¯
🧵

[𝔐𝔽𝓩 @mean_field_zane]

I am not kidding when I say this might be the most important paper in theoretical economics this century. I have been waiting a long time to see it shared and I’m very excited the authors have now released it. Definitely take your time and read it!

[Paul Novosad @paulnovosad]

Authors can't be trusted to run their own robustness checks.

In 17 AER papers, only 12/211 robustness checks "fail" with p > 0.05 (white).

In robustness checks chosen by 3rd parties, almost *half* of them fail (blue).

1/

[Ivan Werning @IvanWerning]

More generally, as beautifully shown by @mileskimball the sensitivity of this second derivative (or the size of the third derivative!) capture the strength of prudence. Much like the sensitivity of the first derivative captures risk aversion.

14/n

[Jonathan Benchimol @Benchimolium]

🚨 Public Good Alert 🚨

Two years of development. Zero funding. 𝟲,𝟲𝟵𝟯 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝟱𝟭 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀. #TextData

Today, we are opening the doors to it all for free 🚀

Visit our website: https://t.co/ToBke8Dxww

🧵1/12 #NLP

[Giulio Tarquini @TarquiniGiulio]

What are the implications of bounded rationality for monetary policy, when economies are hit by supply shocks?
Does myopia help central banks in the long run?

In a short note with @BoncianiDario, @Masek_F and Paolo Nanni, we provide an answer. 🧵#econtwitter

1/8

[Sagar @Sagar_kr_Maity]

Imagine writing a PhD thesis so foundational that the title is literally just the name of the entire field of study.

​Paul Dirac, 1926: "Quantum Mechanics."

[Alvaro Ortiz | @BBVAResearch & CRIW (NBER) @alvaroortiz1968]

You Know Why ?? Direct Geopolitical effects has been Widening Risk (As Usually) but Global Financial Channel (Volatility (VIX) & Yields) did not reach levels to enter in the amplification zone.
📢Tomorrow Don´t Miss !!! In a New VIMM @vimacro_org webinar "Geopolitics, geoeconomics, and risk with texts" by @alvaroortiz1968 @TomasaRodrigo P. Saborido

#EconX #Economics #Research #Geopolitics #Geoeconomics @CebraOrg @BIS_org @ECB_Research @bde_Research @cepr_org @nberpubs @ludwigstraub @AMLEDS1 @IvanWerning
@m_maggiori @kielinstitute @ecb @FlorinBilbiie @Ch_Trebesch @helene_rey @JuriMarcucci @bse_barcelona @NunoGalo @int_mon_econ @suerf_org @Bruegel_org @EU_Commission @BoE_Research @AngelUbide @_SiLviA_mA @PrincetonBCF @Benchimolium @janewayinst
@CambUP_Econ @EconUCL @FlorinBilbiie
#macroeconomics #Economics #Econometrics #inequality @persistdebt @MSchularick @ERC_Research @EU_ScienceHub
@R2Rsquared #EconTwitter @pogourinchas @santospereira_a @rdomenechv @JesusFerna7026

[Alvaro Ortiz | @BBVAResearch & CRIW (NBER) @alvaroortiz1968]

Want to know why Global Risk is being resilient to US-Israel-Iran Conflict? (Learn from"Scissor Effect" of Global Financial Channel absorbing Direct Geopolitical Shocks)
📢Tomorrow Don´t Miss !!! In a New VIMM @vimacro_org webinar "Geopolitics, geoeconomics, and risk with texts" by @alvaroortiz1968 @TomasaRodrigo P. Saborido
Register here 👉 https://t.co/AroPy9CM5v

#EconX #Economics #Research #Geopolitics #Geoeconomics @CebraOrg @BIS_org @ECB_Research @bde_Research @cepr_org @nberpubs @ludwigstraub @AMLEDS1 @IvanWerning
@m_maggiori @kielinstitute @ecb @FlorinBilbiie @Ch_Trebesch @helene_rey @JuriMarcucci @bse_barcelona @NunoGalo @int_mon_econ @suerf_org @Bruegel_org @EU_Commission @BoE_Research @AngelUbide @_SiLviA_mA @PrincetonBCF @Benchimolium @janewayinst
@CambUP_Econ @EconUCL @FlorinBilbiie
#macroeconomics #Economics #Econometrics #inequality @persistdebt @MSchularick @ERC_Research @EU_ScienceHub
@R2Rsquared #EconTwitter @pogourinchas @santospereira_a @rdomenechv @JesusFerna7026

[Jonathan Benchimol @Benchimolium]

Can ML predict how a conflict zone impacts sovereign CDS spreads?
Yes, and distance matters more than you think 🗺️

We’re breaking down the frontier of Geopolitics x Finance in our next VIMM Lab Seminar.

If you want to understand the modern global financial cycle, be there 👇🏽

[Virtual Israel Macro Meeting (VIMM) @vimacro_org]

📢 VIMM Lab Seminar 📢
Tomorrow, @alvaroortiz1968 (@bbva) will teach "Geopolitics, geoeconomics, and sovereign risk with texts" at @vimacro_org lab

Registration: https://t.co/t8MhknkBoD

Paper & #Data: https://t.co/kyKzrIlHf7

#EconX #Economics #Research #Teaching #TextMining

[Virtual Israel Macro Meeting (VIMM) @vimacro_org]

📢 VIMM Lab Seminar 📢
Tomorrow, @alvaroortiz1968 (@bbva) will teach "Geopolitics, geoeconomics, and sovereign risk with texts" at @vimacro_org lab

Registration: https://t.co/t8MhknkBoD

Paper & #Data: https://t.co/kyKzrIlHf7

#EconX #Economics #Research #Teaching #TextMining

[Jonathan Benchimol @Benchimolium]

@itamarcaspi 🤭

[Israel ישראל @Israel]

Another Israeli AI company goes global 🇮🇱

American software giant Coupa is acquiring Israeli startup Tonkean in a deal reportedly worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Tonkean helps companies use AI to handle everyday operations more efficiently - from internal approvals to workplace processes.
https://t.co/mOpZYoVRAh

[International and Monetary Economics Network @int_mon_econ]

Super interesting!

"A Demand Theory of the Price Level" by Marcus Hagedorn (The paper was submitted to the International Economic Review posthumously. Sadly, Marcus Hagedorn passed away too soon.).

"Heterogeneous agent incomplete markets models offer a new perspective on price and inflation determination. In contrast to complete markets, the price level is determined from the asset-market clearing condition. Fiscal and monetary policy then jointly and uniquely determine the finite steady-state price level and the inflation rate, including in a steady state in which the nominal interest rate is constant. Fiscal policy can determine the long-run inflation rate for a fiscal rule which sets the growth rate of nominal government debt, whereas both fiscal and monetary policy determine the long-run inflation rate under different tax rules."

https://t.co/xQyfA1rJEa

[Alvaro Ortiz | @BBVAResearch & CRIW (NBER) @alvaroortiz1968]

📢Next week📢 Dont Miss !!!
We will be presenting in a New VIMM @vimacro_org Seminar "Geopolitics, geoeconomics, and sovereign risk with texts" based on our work @alvaroortiz1968 @TomasaRodrigo P.Saborido from @BBVAResearch.
Want to know why Global Risk is being resilient to US-Israel-Iran Conflict (Learn from"Scissor Effect" of Global Financial Transactions absorbing Geo Shocks)
🔗lab Registration: https://t.co/AroPy9CefX
🔗Paper & #Data: https://t.co/I1OErVUtjR #EconX #Economics #Research #Geopolitics #Geoeconomics
@CebraOrg @BIS_org @ECB_Research @bde_Research @cepr_org @nberpubs @ludwigstraub  @AMLEDS1 @IvanWerning @m_maggiori @kielinstitute @ecb @FlorinBilbiie @Ch_Trebesch @helene_rey @JuriMarcucci @bse_barcelona @NunoGalo @int_mon_econ @suerf_org @Bruegel_org @EU_Commission @BoE_Research @AngelUbide @_SiLviA_mA @PrincetonBCF @Benchimolium @janewayinst @CambUP_Econ @EconUCL @FlorinBilbiie #macroeconomics #Economics #Econometrics #inequality @persistdebt @MSchularick @ERC_Research @EU_ScienceHub @R2Rsquared #EconTwitter @pogourinchas @santospereira_a @rdomenechv @JesusFerna7026