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Last cycle, $MSTR peaked 274 days before Bitcoin.
Top line: MSTR/BTC
Bottom line: BTC/USD
🟥: Bitcoin outperforms $MSTR
Last cycle, MSTR was -38% from its peak when Bitcoin topped. After Bitcoin peaked, MSTR fell another 85%.
Currently, MSTR is -40% from its peak. I wouldn’t hold MSTR during a bear market.
My quote from December 2024:
"Last cycle, $MSTR topped 274 days before Bitcoin. MSTR topped when Bitcoin was $49,000. Bitcoin then pumped 40% more. Are we going to see something similar this cycle? Will Bitcoin pump to $125-$150k without MSTR making a new high?"
This cycle so far:
MSTR topped 300+ days ago and Bitcoin continued to pump +30%. Meanwhile, MSTR has dropped -35% below its peak.
"The Debasement Trade" since COVID:
In USD: NDX up 165%, SPX up 102%, Home prices up 56%.
In gold: NDX up 7%, SPX down 18%, Home prices down 37%.
In BTC: NDX down 78%, SPX down 84%, Home prices down 87%.