According to this model, the downside risk of buying bitcoin today is -23% and the potential upside return is +650%.
🟪 Resistance: $635,000
🟩 Fair value: $183,000
🟥 Support: $65,000
This is the easiest decision of your life.
Could Bitcoin hit $600,000 by 2029?
Veteran trader @PeterLBrandt shares his Bitcoin outlook, says further interest rate hikes would have little effect on its price, and calls XRP a “fool coin.”
“XRP can be effectively used for transactional purposes, cheaply,” he says.
Watch the new #TRADESECRETS episode with @itsciaranlyons:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - Do you still expect Bitcoin to bottom in October?
05:30 - What negative catalyst could trigger another Bitcoin drop?
09:10 - Is $100,000 by year-end a realistic scenario for Bitcoin?
11:45 - Could Bitcoin reach $1 million by 2030?
18:00 - What is the better short-term play: AI stocks or Bitcoin?
20:30 - How would further interest rate hikes impact Bitcoin?
23:00 - Will institutional demand change Bitcoin’s boom-and-bust cycle?
25:35 - What is your current view on XRP?
28:30 - Could quantum computing threats ultimately push Bitcoin’s price to zero?
The last time US Treasury yields were this high, total US national debt stood at just $8.9 trillion.
Today, US debt stands at $40.1 trillion. That's +$31.2 trillion more, or over 4.5 TIMES higher.
This means every 1 percentage point in the average cost of servicing the debt now translates to ~$401 billion per year in interest expense.
In 2007, the same 1 percentage point translated to just ~$89 billion.
That’s an additional ~$312 BILLION in annual interest expense for every percentage point increase in borrowing cost.
This is a vastly different situation than it was 19 years ago.
The bond market matters more now than ever.
‼️BREAKING:
🇨🇳 CHINA reportedly plans to lift its restrictions on cryptocurrencies by the end of 2026.
Just imagine what could happen when MILLIONS of Chinese investors re-enter the crypto market during the biggest bull run in history! 🚀
THIS COULD BE HUGE! 🔥
The government's playbook since 1971:
1. The government spends more than it earns.
2. It must take on debt to fund the difference.
3. The Fed creates money to buy the debt.
4. More money makes every dollar worth less.
5. Everything gets more expensive.
For once, there is a real supply shock in bitcoin.
This year:
- Trading volumes are down 30%
- Price is up 50%
- 81% of the supply hasn’t moved in 6 months
Our newsletter covers the details👇
BREAKING: US M2 money supply jumped +$124.9 billion in August, to a record $23.34 trillion.
This marks the 28th consecutive monthly increase, totaling +$2.61 trillion.
YoY, M2 grew +5.7%, its largest YoY increase since June 2022.
This marks a sharp acceleration from +2.0% YoY growth seen in August 2024.
Meanwhile, since the 2020 pandemic, M2 money supply has surged +$7.85 trillion, equivalent to +$1.21 trillion on average per year, or +6.5% annualized growth.
US money creation is picking up speed.
Just a scenario for the second half of this halving cycle, Apr 2024 - Apr 2028 (no not a prediction, just a scenario, food for thought, you assign the odds):
🔳 $100K in October
🔳 New ATH (>$126K) before Christmas
🔳 2027 - 2028: >$232K (4x $58K bottom)
What do you think?
$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets.
MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average.
This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.