Geoff Flather

Operations Manager @cjcleeltd, a family owned farming, agricultural contracting and haulage business based in North Norfolk

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Twenty million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.

Today the number may be zero.

Not because Iran mined the water. Not because a tanker was hit. Because Lloyd’s of London picked up the phone.

War risk underwriters began canceling policies for strait transits hours after Operation Epic Fury launched. The Financial Times confirmed premiums surging 50 percent. Baseline war risk sits at 0.25 percent of hull value. For a hundred million dollar tanker that is 250,000 dollars per voyage. At peak escalation rates, one million per transit. Vessels linked to American or Israeli interests are becoming uninsurable entirely. No price. No policy. No passage.

The KHK Empress was loaded with Omani crude heading for Basra when it executed a U-turn mid-strait and redirected to India. The Eagle Veracruz halted at the western approach carrying two million barrels of Saudi crude bound for China. The Front Shanghai stopped off Sharjah with Iraqi crude destined for Rotterdam. Nippon Yusen ordered its entire fleet to avoid Hormuz. Greece told its merchant armada to reassess passage. Hapag-Lloyd suspended all transits.

None of them were fired upon. Every one of them got the same call.

More than fifty million years ago the Arabian plate collided with the Eurasian plate and compressed the Persian Gulf into a basin that drains through a single geological bottleneck twenty one miles wide. Twenty one percent of global petroleum. Twenty percent of all seaborne LNG. One fifth of industrial civilization’s energy supply forced through a tectonic accident narrower than the English Channel, bordered on one side by the country whose supreme leader was killed yesterday morning.

The USS Abraham Lincoln carries enough Tomahawks to sink every IRGC patrol boat in 48 hours. Operation Praying Mantis crippled Iran’s operational naval forces in eight hours in 1988. The Fifth Fleet has rehearsed this scenario for decades.

None of that matters. Aircraft carriers cannot force an underwriter to rewrite a policy. Tomahawks cannot lower a premium. The most powerful navy in human history cannot make a Lloyd’s syndicate decide that a VLCC transiting Iranian coastal waters represents an acceptable risk on a Saturday afternoon when missiles are landing in Dubai.

Goldman Sachs estimates Brent could peak at 110 dollars per barrel. JP Morgan projects 120 to 130. At those levels every airline bleeds cash. Every central bank watches three years of inflation fighting reignite overnight. Bypass pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE handle roughly three million barrels. Hormuz handles twenty million. The math does not close.

Iran figured out something the Pentagon still has not.

You do not need to close a strait. You just need to make it uninsurable.

https://t.co/BrzGRrU3VW

[Russell Corfield @peamanruss]

Summing up things well here at the #NorfolkFarmingConference26

[Geoff Flather @rgflather]

@bencoles_ Totally agree

[Eastern Daily Press @EDP24]

Castle undergoing major restoration project could reopen this summer https://t.co/3uO7HKZc59

[Leicester Tigers @LeicesterTigers]

🐅 Team news for Finals Day this Sunday!

Tigers take on Saracens in the 3rd place playoff (5:20pm KO)

Watch live on @premrugby youtube.

[Kemi Badenoch @KemiBadenoch]

It was a pleasure to chat to @JeremyClarkson today about the farmers’ rally and the terrible impact Labour’s budget will have on our rural communities.

Jeremy and I agree we cannot allow the government to get away with it.

[TheFarmingForum @TheFarmingForum]

Please share this link for information about times and location for the London Farming Rally on 19th November - this page will be kept updated - https://t.co/LU5fJoHJrK

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

A jaw-dropping 343 mm of rain was recorded in just 4 hours in Valencia between 4:30 pm and 8:30 pm.

This is the result.

[Jeremy Clarkson @JeremyClarkson]

Farmers. I know that you have been shafted today. But please don’t despair. Just look after yourselves for five short years and this shower will be gone.

[Geoff Flather @rgflather]

@CharlieFelix @RugbyJosh20 😂😂

[Geoff Flather @rgflather]

@ARoss_farm @nfueast @NFUSugar Well done Tommy!

[Ed Slater @edslater]

I’m really excited to bring this game to the public. Just over a year ago, Rob Burrow and I discussed the idea of a cross code rugby game. Sadly Rob won’t be here to see it come to fruition but he is at the forefront of why we are doing this and we are all proud to represent him at his beloved @leedsrhinos 🏟️

With the help of everyone at Leeds, @myname5doddie and @4edfundraising we bring you the first 745 Cross Code Game @the_745game in aid of MND. ❤️

Ed x
@ed_slater

🎟️ Tickets available now at : https://t.co/4Mov6EBxR2

[Farmers Weekly @FarmersWeekly]

This is a frightening statistic. 🙁

Fourteen people have been killed in fatal incidents on UK farms since April, including nine linked to moving machinery.

READ MORE: https://t.co/jigQzwU4GB

[SheringhamRNLI @SheringhamRNLI]

Today (1.8.24) we got together at 18:24 to celebrate #RNLI200 since 1824. The photo features Sheringham RNLI crew,our shop volunteers, @s_shantymen & members of our crew families who without their support none of this would be possible. 📸 @christaylorfoto
#OneMomentOneCrew

[Russell Corfield @peamanruss]

@CJCLeeLtd & AGL #podsquad on the tip this lunchtime 🫛🫛🫛🚜🚛 pressure on at the moment ☀️

[BBRO_Beet @BBRO_Beet]

Mid season sugar beet yield digs have been undertaken by the team today. 70 yield digs completed over two fertiliser trials. That's over 90 square meters of beet! Now all boxed up and ready for drying and N content analysis. Ready for more next week!

[James Melville 🚜 @JamesMelville]

Italy 🇮🇹

Italy bans ground-mounted solar panels on productive agricultural land.

[Geoff Flather @rgflather]

A couple of great days spent at Trent Bridge, catching up with old friends #ENGvsWI 🏏