programmers are making $10k-200k monthly on polymarket
here's how they actually do it
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1. arbitrage bots
buy YES + NO when combined price < $1
example: YES at 48¢ + NO at 49¢ = 97¢ total
you lock $0.03 profit per $1 no matter who wins
trader "distinct-baguette" made $242k in 1.5 months doing this
targets 15-min crypto markets where prices move fast
python script polls API every 1-3 seconds, executes when sum < 99¢
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2. statistical arbitrage
find correlated markets that drift apart
"trump wins" vs "GOP senate control" should move together
when spread hits 4-7%, short expensive one, long cheap one
close when they converge
trader "sharky6999" made $480k scanning 100+ markets per minute
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3. AI probability models
train ML models to estimate real odds from news/social data
if your model says 60% YES but market at 50¢, buy
trader "ilovecircle" made $2.2M in 2 months with 74% accuracy
uses ensemble of 10 AI models, retrains weekly
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4. spread farming
buy at bid (5¢), sell at ask (6¢), repeat
or hedge across platforms (short polymarket, long binance)
trader "cry.eth2" made $194k with 1M trades
high-frequency loop via CLOB API
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5. copy-trading automation
mirror successful whale traders automatically
scan profiles, execute proportional trades
one bot made $80k in 2 weeks copying near-resolved markets
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tech stack:
python + requests library for API calls
web3-py for blockchain interactions deploy on VPS for 24/7 operation
polymarket has REST APIs for everything:
gamma markets API (prices/volumes)
CLOB API (place orders)
data API (track positions)
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starting point:
> build simple arbitrage bot first
> fund with $100-1k for testing target high-volume markets (politics/crypto)
> expect 50-70% win rate but focus on positive EV
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