Basis Points Bull

Learn new things. Think Outside the box.

[Sofia Rodriguez @SofiaRodrih6]

$ASTS Lets keep in mind, what Starlink will look like after T- Mobile leaves. Bullish

[The Tech Investor @TheTechInvest]

$IREN managed clusters first test is $NVDA & $IREN deal. Before that, SemiAnalysis rating is BS

[Daniel Romero @HyperTechInvest]

This is so clearly just a forced hit piece because $IREN is a popular company that catches eyeballs

It's easy to attack a new neocloud that has a couple of old "testing" sites and is only now ramping up literally a gigawatt of state-of-the-art deployments

Let's come back to this in a couple of years

[Caesar Capital @CaesarCapitalz]

@alc2022 No, buy $NBIS instead

[Frans Bakker @FransBakker9812]

Part 1: Construction speed as a moat.

We have heard the phrase "time to compute" far too many times. But what does it mean for $IREN's greenfield sites?

The below 2 SW1 images are taken exactly 30 days apart.

On a complete shell basis, the results of 30 days progress:
1. 25% of the roof completed.
2. 25% additional steel has been erected, bringing the current steel frame of the building to nearly 50% of the total.
3. 45MW IT load in terms of dry-coolers have been installed.

And this is just the bulk of the visible work, there's so much more going on which I will cover in a separate post.

If IREN can keep this pace up, before the end of Q1 2027, the complete 200MW IT load shell will be up with a roof, and all the external equipment for cooling will be positioned for commissioning.

Based on extensive AI analysis of my available aerial footage, I have concluded there are currently no more than 350 workers on site.

By contrast, at present, IREN has approximately 3000 workers active in Childress.

Can you imagine what will happen in Sweetwater if IREN ramps up the workforce there during the first half of 2027?

Subcontractors are already preparing for this. I know that, because I talk to them.

The market is placing a considerable amount of execution risk on IREN's valuation. And we know the company has guided incredibly conservative for liquid-cooled capacity to come online from Q4 of CY2027.

When I look at the situation at hand, I see a different story.

IREN is going fast at Sweetwater 1, and by my calculations, the first part of this 200MW IT load building could be ready to receive GPUs in Q2 of next year, but only if there is a phased delivery of 25-50MW increments.

From what I understand from IREN, is that there will in fact be 4 segments of 50MW IT load in this hall, and that means there is a strong possibility of a much earlier initial delivery than Q4, and thus a higher likelyhood of earlier contracting, and subsequently billing, of additional FY2028 revenue.

So if you wonder why IREN hasn't contracted any capacity at this site yet, it's not because they cannot find any customers, it's simply that by holding out a few more months, they will be able to:

1. Sell that capacity to a much larger group of customers, including non-IG,
2. at a higher price per MW,
3. without risking having to factor in inflationary components of the buildout, and associated hardware, because by then it's already done and procured.

So why is construction speed a moat?
By being your own general contractor with a large team of subcontractors active on schedule today, you can factor in the exact time-to-data center, and negotiate GPU delivery timelines, lock in prepayments, and have an edge in locking in favorable GPU debt.

It sounds like a simple 1,2,3, but in this AI industry, things change almost every day.

Being predictable in your buildout, with a demonstrated pace of construction, having all your supply chains in sync, and all your contractors locked in: that's when you have the strongest negotiation position with your customers.

IREN in 2027 and beyond, is all about unit economics, EBITDA margins, and profitability as a result of true vertical integration.

Being able to build data centers fast, on multiple sites at once, with a standardized design, and repeatable CAPEX cycle, the only thing that is variable is your ability to attract debt, with on the other hand the uptrend in demand, and GPU hour economics.

I will address debt in another part of this post, but clearly the demand is here to stay, and GPU hour rates for Blackwells are making all time highs.

IREN has 3 energized primary substations in Sweetwater 1, and 6 in Childress.

Currently, the early earthworks for 2 more are showing at Sweetwater 2.

All of this is Batch Zero base load, energized, or approved to energize.

Power not a moat?
Okay, but power is also not a concern.

If you can build fast, you can capitalize on a relatively larger part of this supply-constrained environment, and monetize a larger share of the overwhelming demand, at the best economics per MW on average.

It's really that simple.

Even if you believe that the demand is temporary, having the ability to construct these data centers fast, without having to worry about your source of power, gives IREN an edge in locking in the most favorable revenue mix, across the most strategically selected customer mix.

This is why we track the construction at OnlyFrans.
Not to look at pretty pictures, but to establish data points, and quantify the construction cadence.

If execution risk is the main concern for this stock, zooming in on just that, is exactly what gives investors the information they need to position themselves accordingly.

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS: Roth Capital Buy Rating and $108 Price Target

"ASTS is the preferred D2D partner: The SpaceX actions should push a cozier relationship with tier 1 mobile operators (Verizon, AT&T, T-Mo). ASTS becomes the preferred neutral D2D partner. This has already been underway with 60+ global MNO partnerships comprising over 3B existing mobile subs. We further note that T-Mo has distanced itself from SPCX after its mid-2025 satellite text service launch. Also, SPCX requires next-gen satellites to compete effectively with the ASTS D2D network, which we believe will provide ASTS with a time to market advantage in 2027."

[Basis Points Bull @rhinotjj]

@Bonek2801 nice man, if you truly believe in the company. This dip here will affect your mental state. Just stop looking at your portfolio, go do something with friends/family takes your mind off of it.

[IREN @IREN_Ltd]

Yotta brought the AI infrastructure ecosystem under one roof, giving IREN leaders three days of direct conversations with the suppliers, builders and operators shaping what comes next.

- IREN is strengthening ties with leading construction and equipment partners
- Suppliers want to partner with developers that can execute
- Vertical integration from grid to AI Cloud is how IREN delivers with speed and reliability

Watch the highlights.

[Abel Avellan @AbelAvellan]

American operators hold ~1,000 MHz of low and mid band spectrum, tunable on the @AST_SpaceMobile network. With our current satellites in orbit and in build, our United States partners will access critical low-band and mid-band spectrum that no one can match!

When combined with the mobile network operators' extensive spectrum assets, and in combination with AST SpaceMobile controlled 45 MHz of L-band spectrum, users will see peak data rates of nearly 200 Mbps from the largest-ever satellites in low Earth orbit.

Together we are making the strongest, most resilient, AI ready networks on the planet. 🇺🇸 🌎📶📱🤠

[Oli @OInvests]

Abel responds.

$ASTS US partners hold ~1,000 MHz of spectrum, tunable on AST's network.

Starlink is buying spectrum. AST plugs into what carriers already own.

Market overreacting?

[Basis Points Bull @rhinotjj]

@ArthurKaInvest @HolySmokas you must be new around here

[Cole Grinde @GrindeOptions]

Spoke too soon but the same message still holds true for $IREN.

[Basis Points Bull @rhinotjj]

@MsVeilMoney buy the dip and don't trip.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

Horizon 1 already earned $NVDA Exemplar Cloud status proving $IREN can run GB300 NVL72 at production scale.

Now the focus is repeating that across another ~150 MW for $MSFT in Q4 which makes the ramp feel much more proven.

[IREN @IREN_Ltd]

NVIDIA-validated performance for production AI at scale.

IREN is an NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud provider on NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 connected with NVIDIA Quantum-X800 InfiniBand networking for training workloads. This validates performance against NVIDIA reference architecture, meeting the threshold across all benchmarking recipes.

For AI builders choosing where to run their most demanding workloads, IREN AI Cloud delivers verified performance, end-to-end control of the stack, and the scale to meet what AI demands next.

Read more about IREN's NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud achievement: https://t.co/jxSRlp3uz5

[Basis Points Bull @rhinotjj]

@saltinszn @nexocooker plot twist, it's AI or fake video, monitor looks from early 2000s. In 2011, computer monitors are not like that.

[Basis Points Bull @rhinotjj]

@face_less12 Vag-head, he has a vagina on the back of his head?

[Basis Points Bull @rhinotjj]

@UmairNauman_ @cz_binance it's easy to be in shape under 30 years old. It's tougher to be in shape hitting 50 years old.

[Basis Points Bull @rhinotjj]

@limbosquad_00 she owns all the blocks in the city. Not a pretty scene downstairs.

[Basis Points Bull @rhinotjj]

@_angerguy what a SHITTY situation.