Richard Baxter

Interests include golf, nature, investing, satirical comedy, wine, and home made food

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@BLAIMGame @RebelHQ It’s nonsense of course. Under Thatcher/Major then Blair/Brown until the financial crisis of 2008, annualised real GDP growth was in excess of 2%!!
QED.

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@rj_abel @JohnCleese

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@afneil 😂😂😂

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@conkers3 @conkers3 @HTVIOLA But falling short of forecasts?!

[Jim Chimirie 🇬🇧 @JChimirie66677]

There's a line in a democracy that, once crossed, changes everything: when elections cease to be an obligation and become a variable. That line has now been crossed in Britain, and it's the state's own elections watchdog saying so.

The Electoral Commission has been explicit: Labour's justification for delaying local elections is not legitimate. Not unwise. Not clumsy. Illegitimate. Extending mandates damages public confidence, undermines local legitimacy, and creates a clear conflict of interest by letting councils decide how long they can avoid voters. In any functioning democracy, that would end the matter. Here, the government presses on regardless.

That's the scandal. This is no longer a party political dispute or a row between Reform and Labour. The referee has intervened and said the game is being rigged, and the players have decided to ignore the whistle. When a government continues with election delays after being told by the independent authority charged with protecting electoral integrity that its reasoning does not hold, the issue stops being reform and becomes power protecting itself.

The language Labour uses is revealing. Elections are framed as an inconvenience. Voters are framed as an administrative burden. Democracy is reduced to a cost-saving exercise, something to be postponed if the spreadsheets look untidy or the reorganisation plans are mid-flow. Ministers speak of "capacity constraints" as if the right to vote is a luxury item that must wait until the filing cabinets are rearranged. In a democracy, administration exists to serve elections. Elections do not exist to suit administration.

The conflict of interest identified by the Electoral Commission should alarm anyone who still believes in democratic norms. Councils are being asked whether they would like to delay the moment they must answer to voters. That's not consultation. It's self-dealing. No serious system allows those in power to decide how long they may remain there without consent. Yet this is now presented as a "locally led approach," as though outsourcing democratic suspension makes it virtuous.

Worse still is the uncertainty. Candidates have been selected. Campaigns have begun. Money has been spent. And with months to go before polling day, the government is still dangling the possibility of cancellation. The watchdog describes this uncertainty as unprecedented. That word matters. Democracies rely on predictability. Once elections become provisional, subject to last-minute ministerial approval, the entire process is degraded.

When challenged, ministers retreat into condescension. Chris Bryant waves away concerns as conspiracy and insists that "ordinary people" would think elections are "a bit daft." This is a familiar trick: speak for the public while denying them a voice. Redefine democratic rights as common-sense nuisances that sensible adults should stop fussing over. It's the rhetoric of managed democracy, where participation is tolerated only when it produces the correct outcome.

None of this is happening in isolation. Mayoral elections have already been postponed. Now council elections are being pushed back again. The pattern is clear. When the polls turn hostile, the timetable moves. When voters become unpredictable, the vote is delayed. Governments confident in their mandate do not need to buy time. They face the electorate and take their chances. Labour is not doing that because it knows what the numbers say.

The danger is not just that millions of people may be denied a vote next year. It's the precedent now being set. Once a government learns it can delay elections after the watchdog objects, after campaigns have begun and candidates are in place, the principle is broken. Elections become conditional. Democracy becomes something you are granted when those in power feel safe enough to allow it.

"Chris Bryant waves away concerns as conspiracy and insists that "ordinary people" would think elections are "a bit daft.""

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@AVMikhailova @TimesRadio That comment is an obvious lie and a demonstration of her incompetence

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@conkers3 @HTVIOLA Thanks Peter.
I will try with #OTB please!

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@conkers3 @HTVIOLA I see one of my picks for the 2025 investing challenge de-listed last week. Do I get to choose a replacement?

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@wheeliedealer I held these until this morning. Whilst trading seems reasonable it’s a thinly veiled profit warning with guidance of 105-135m missing forecast of 142m ⛔️

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@conkers3 @HTVIOLA I am tempted to randomly select my 5 stocks as my control group for 2024 outperformed my selection by at least 30%! But I am not going to. 😁
My 5 are:
#BVXP
#GBG
#GOOD
#KEYS
#WHPO
Many thanks for all the great podcasts of 2024, wishing you the best for 2025! 🍾🏆🆒

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@HTVIOLA @conkers3 A bit vague but ‘optimistic’ with talk of momentum and expanding into new markets geographically.

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@HTVIOLA @wheeliedealer @conkers3 They have spent money expanding in recent years then were hit by Covid and destocking. Their metrics (eg ROCE, margins) are good but can they now deliver on promised growth?

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@conkers3 @HTVIOLA Another fact and opinion packed show, thanks! Yes I sold out of #DGI9 for an 81.4% loss! One of my cardinal errors ie a lack of risk management! 🤡

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@markminervini So when you place a trade, how do you know you are getting the right amount of supply?

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@conkers3 @HTVIOLA Thanks Pete. It’s not all doom and gloom mind, as my actual long term portfolio is doing much better 👍🏻

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@afneil 22billion out of 1000 billion annual government public spend (2%) is much less of a black hole, and much more the tip of the iceberg!

[Richard Baxter @richarddbaxter]

@conkers3 .@HTVIOLA
Great numbers from #AUTO in spite of worries around performance of Autorama recently acquired. Outlook positive overall with reducing losses at Autorama. I hold.