Ricardo Reyes-Heroles

Research Economist @DallasFed (my views, not Fed views). Previously @federalreserve, @PrincetonEcon, @ITAM_mx.

[Ricardo Reyes-Heroles @RichRHC]

It's nice to see this out! Tryg and I rely on a NK model of the global economy with trade disruptions---developed by @pcubab, @Albert_Queralto, Mikael Scaramucci and I in recent research---to quantify the net inflationary effects of the Hormuz closure and the IEEPA tariffs ruling

[Dallas Fed @DallasFed]

New research finds that increased costs due to trade disruptions generated by the unexpected closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely undo disinflationary effects of lower tariffs that resulted from a U.S. Supreme Court ruling earlier this year. https://t.co/m97ib07ox1

[Ricardo Reyes-Heroles @RichRHC]

It's nice to see this out! Tryg and I rely on a NK model of the global economy with trade disruptions---developed by @pcubab, @Albert_Queralto, Mikael Scaramucci and I in recent research---to quantify the net inflationary effects of the Hormuz closure and the IEEPA tariffs ruling

[Dallas Fed @DallasFed]

New research finds that increased costs due to trade disruptions generated by the unexpected closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely undo disinflationary effects of lower tariffs that resulted from a U.S. Supreme Court ruling earlier this year. https://t.co/m97ib07ox1

[Dallas Fed @DallasFed]

A sequence of major economic and geopolitical events has reshaped the structure of global trade in the past decade. The latest on Dallas Fed Economics explores these shifting global trade patterns. https://t.co/bDIXl3DJjT

[Ricardo Reyes-Heroles @RichRHC]

@DallasFed We estimate that trade diversion from China should have increased Mexico’s GDP by up to 1 percent by incentivizing additional investment. The results underscore how domestic investment dynamics shape macroeconomic gains from shifting global trade patterns.

[Ricardo Reyes-Heroles @RichRHC]

Mexico gains from U.S.-China trade war; inefficiencies limit benefit https://t.co/1VAj98bBRu via @DallasFed
Happy to finally have out my first DFE piece!

[Ricardo Reyes-Heroles @RichRHC]

@DallasFed A central question for policymakers is whether this reallocation has meaningful macro consequences beyond changes in bilateral trade. In particular, has the diversion of U.S. sourcing away from China translated into gains in Mexican aggregate output, such as higher GDP growth?

[Washington Commanders @Commanders]

Week WON

[alejandro werner @alejandrowerne7]

Bolivia's Economy on the Brink https://t.co/Vy9PghTOfg

[Carola Conces Binder @cconces]

A few years ago, Christina Skinner and I published “Laboratories of Central Banking,” in the Review of Banking and Financial Law. A Mercatus policy brief on the paper is recently making the rounds and garnering some controversy, so I wanted to make a few comments. (Thread)

[Mike Waugh @tradewartracker]

I got to organize the @nber International Trade and Macroeconomics meeting with the amazing Yan Bai:

https://t.co/BUGU8OLNPu

It's tomorrow afternoon and for those of you without access to the Royal Sonnesta, it's on youtube:

https://t.co/nDdJU2GPzk

[Ricardo Reyes-Heroles @RichRHC]

I'm thrilled! Thanks for including my work with @pcubab, @Albert_Queralto, and Mikael Scaramucci in such an amazing program. Looking forward to tomorrow's session!

[Mike Waugh @tradewartracker]

Another timely one.

How do changes in trade frictions (like tariffs) affect inflation?

by @RichRHC and a team from @federalreserve

Key finding is that when the tariff hits intermediate goods (which is 40 percent of U.S. imports), inflation is more persistent.

[Mike Waugh @tradewartracker]

Another timely one.

How do changes in trade frictions (like tariffs) affect inflation?

by @RichRHC and a team from @federalreserve

Key finding is that when the tariff hits intermediate goods (which is 40 percent of U.S. imports), inflation is more persistent.

[Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) @TradeDiversion]

Headed to NBER SI. In addition to seeing the latest research, I'm looking forward to the panels on "The Future Impacts Of Current Trade Policy" (@itskhoki, @skalemliozcan, @akhandelwal8, Rodriguez-Clare) & "The Future of the Global Economy" (@itskhoki, @paulkrugman, Tesar).

[Fabio Ghironi @FabioGhironi]

More evidence consistent with results in https://t.co/kVK33qzL0L

[FedResearch @FedResearch]

Using a multi-country New Keynesian model with trade in final goods and intermediate inputs, the authors estimate that a 10 p.p. increase in U.S. bilateral trade costs leads to about a 1 p.p. increase in U.S. inflation. (2/3) https://t.co/Z42TOgrd0X #IFDPPaper

[FedResearch @FedResearch]

The inflationary effects persist when trade barriers increase the cost of intermediate inputs. Persistent inflation complicates the monetary policy tradeoff. (3/3) https://t.co/Z42TOgrKQv #IFDPPaper

[FedResearch @FedResearch]

Using global input-output data & a gravity framework, the authors provide empirical evidence that higher import costs, such as tariffs & non-tariff barriers to trade, act like negative supply shocks that increase inflation & lower output. (1/3) https://t.co/Z42TOgrKQv #IFDPPaper

[G. Kemal Ozhan @galipkemal]

Updated draft of our paper on developing a framework to study sanctions--with @FabioGhironi and @DaisoonKim