MUGIWARIO 🏴‍☠️ 👒

Passionate crypto enthusiast exploring the dynamic world of digital currencies.

[Daily Crypto Prophet .eth @DcPofficial_eth]

In temperature prediction markets, only ONE bucket can win.
That means your winning leg has to pay for every leg that lost. This single fact determines whether a ladder makes money or quietly bleeds.
Here's how to think about it:
Temperature markets slice outcomes into 1-degree buckets. Even a solid model assigns only ~25-35% to the single most-likely bucket — meaning you lose two-thirds of the time on near-misses. Your read was right. The bucket was just too narrow.
Laddering fixes this: spread smaller bets across 2-4 neighboring buckets. You win whenever the high lands anywhere in the cluster. Higher hit rate, smoother outcomes.
But the math has a gate.
Break-even by number of legs:
→ 2 legs: price per leg must be ≤ 0.50
→ 3 legs: ≤ 0.33
→ 4 legs: ≤ 0.25

The real rule in one line:
Σ(leg prices) < Σ(your modeled probability for those buckets)

Illustrative example: a 3-bucket cluster where your model gives 0.22 / 0.30 / 0.22 (sum: 0.74) and the market prices them at 0.15 / 0.22 / 0.16 (sum: 0.53). Edge = +0.21. Hit rate ~74% vs ~30% for the single-bucket bet.

Why does this edge exist? Ensemble weather models are underdispersive — they underestimate outcome spread. Markets follow the models. So neighboring buckets are often collectively underpriced.
Practical rules:
→ Every leg must be individually +EV
→ Keep legs ≤ ~0.30–0.35. Never ladder near 0.50
→ Require Σ(prob) − Σ(price) ≥ 0.08 minimum
→ Cap at ~3 contiguous legs
→ Judge at cluster level — most legs lose by design

Laddering doesn't create edge. It captures edge that's already there. The legs just have to be cheap enough for one win to carry the rest.

[MUGIWARIO 🏴‍☠️ 👒 @riokard]

@saracrypto_eth done

[sarah milady @saracrypto_eth]

#Bitcoin Finally dumped below $75,000 !

As promised,
I want to change someone's life and send 1 $BTC (~$75,000 ) to one person by tomorrow.

Just like, retweet and comment 'done'.
Random winner in 15 hrs

[MUGIWARIO 🏴‍☠️ 👒 @riokard]

@Jaxweah @grok Let's see if Grok will do da work

[MUGIWARIO 🏴‍☠️ 👒 @riokard]

@MediaMonad 82

[MUGIWARIO 🏴‍☠️ 👒 @riokard]

@bmsquamtum Hey there!

[MUGIWARIO 🏴‍☠️ 👒 @riokard]

@ZssBecker Heeere! At last a time that I managed to get you

[MUGIWARIO 🏴‍☠️ 👒 @riokard]

@ZssBecker Or this one cause the other got drained but I think it still works D563dL6AsCJ6yW8PWEN2yFpTFWsWuB4V14zCqCidXxC

[MUGIWARIO 🏴‍☠️ 👒 @riokard]

@ZssBecker Just trying to have my chance on crypto since sallaries are too low in my country and have been strugling for 3 years with 3k investment

[MUGIWARIO 🏴‍☠️ 👒 @riokard]

@ZssBecker 4cnZM42pZwjPdJVr1tvUSCeqna27yFmBwEXXvmWAbJZt let's go big B

[Creepz @creepz]

good market timing sold separately

@dom3xyz

[CARBZ @CarbzXBT]

Yesterday I saw a comment calling me “lucky ass” and I didn't waste a sec to block him, Here's why

2011, I left home as a little kid to work as a help. I wasn’t treated kindly but I endured because I wanted to attend the top school and that was the only way to afford my feed, I'm a lover of education

2017 I finished high school, still just a teenager, trying to figure out life alone

2018 I got admission to study BDS. By 2021 I had to drop out because I couldn’t afford it. My family didn’t even know I took the course so I couldn't call home for help, they all wanted me to study MBBS

2020 I was working as a sales rep, scraping every little thing to pay fees. It wasn’t enough. After I dropped out, I picked up two jobs just to save and maybe go back to school

2022 I decided to put my savings in crypto. I created Binance. That was the beginning of everything

Then NFTs came. I had saved $150 from one year of work. That was my entire salary for the whole year. I put it all into something I didn’t even understand.
I asked two questions:

1. What if I can’t mint? - “You can withdraw your money.”

2. What if I mint? - “You either sell higher or lower, but good chance at higher"

I took the risk. Minted. Sold for 2x. That was my start

I went all in. Made over $10,000 from NFTs before the rugs and disappointments started then I opted school again, this time computer engineering, I always loved tech but my family loved medic

2023 – I decided to stop chasing and focus on building myself. That was how CarbzXBT was born. I connected with names like (@abrahamchase,
@bloomstarbms,
@NDIDI_GRAM) the first 3 names I met while trying to build CarbzXBT, pitched myself to @abrahamchase and he picked me up after seeing how far I was willing to lock in to make it

Today – I have properties worth millions, I’ve set up wallets for my 3 unborn kids that I fund every month, I work with brands, agencies, Companies and big names. Undergraduate with a 4.5 CGPA. Travelling around the globe and do things I once thought impossible

But it wasn’t luck. It was pain, patience, sacrifice, resilience, and prayers.
I’ve been through a lot, I’m still going through a lot. Nothing was handed to me but I always win

So when someone says “lucky”… I know they’ll never understand the price I paid

[Destra Network @DestraNetwork]

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐈𝐕𝐌 𝐑𝐨𝐚𝐝𝐦𝐚𝐩 𝐢𝐬 𝐋𝐈𝐕𝐄.

We’re not just building another chain — we’re building the world’s first AI-native execution layer where every inference, transaction & state change is provable, verifiable & reproducible.

From GPU-powered intelligence ⚡ to ZK-proof security 🔐 to the largest decentralized AI model library 🌐 — this is the future of AI x Blockchain.

The base layer goes live in 2 weeks🔥

🔗 https://t.co/5jfFqsmZv9

[EllioTrades @elliotrades]

Forget the dip, get some free $BLACK

BlackHole pushes for record highs in volume and revenue as short term speculators rotate

The combination of these factors has reduced payback time by nearly 10X since the first epoch

Video explaining the dynamics here and some big announcements coming in the next few days

[SuperVerse @SuperVerse]

believe in somETHing 💚

[LAIKA @laikaoneclipse]

LAIKA just discovered a new way for believers and users to explore @EclipseFND . @clicks_xyz is here, created by @ASCBackpack .

Explore, complete missions, win rewards!

Get on a mission with Laika🐕:

https://t.co/pDSbZ0lfPm

[Invariant @invariant_labs]

New dApp just dropped on @EclipseFND!

Teamed up with @clicks_xyz to throw some prizes your way. 🫡

Join Invariant Expedition and snag some $$$ along the way. 👇
https://t.co/mWw9s1dNbt

[Validators @Validators_]

A whole new way to discover @EclipseFND just dropped. @clicks_xyz is here, created by @ASCBackpack 🚀

Complete missions. Win rewards!

Are you ready to raid #VoidSeraphim?
⚔️ https://t.co/r5PNgdCBWZ ⚔️

[Sharp Trade @SharpTradeFi]

@clicks_xyz is live and we're ready to celebrate this moment with our friends. 🥳

Now you can login, create your profile and complete certain missions to unlock cool rewards!

https://t.co/A6KhS0qrkI
Let's dive in 👇

[alldomains.id 🧬 @alldomains_]

A whole new way to discover @EclipseFND just landed!

Complete the AllDomains Expedition on @clicks_xyz

Link - https://t.co/L4i1GJJtEj