Riskofirma 🎲

Trading since ’16. Journaling since ’22. Turned 0 → 1M publicly, lost it all. Watch me hit 1M again.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

I’ve been trading for 9 years loosing every time - finally made it to $1M+ and ... LOST IT ALL AGAIN

Started from zero: depression, debt, and unemployment, trading from dormitory room.

I’m finishing a thread on my story: the failures, the wins, and what helped me not to give up

But to be honest, seeing whales and big CT accounts blow up made me wonder IF MY STORY MATTERS AT ALL.

$1M seems less significant these days.

Could it be really helpful to someone? Or is it just another "ahhh, whatever..."?

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

This is my 5th+ full roundtrip, but I still don't give up

9 years of equity ATHs I wasn’t ready to carry, I made $1.2M and lost it all

A week ago, I recover $130k equity, and yesterday I lost everything again on this liquidation event

I trade crypto since late 2016, starting from nothing. I fought through long depressions, I didn't have a job, couldn't pay off my debts - my whole life was breaking into pieces...

And I kept finding the strength to try again. If our stories rhyme, I believe you’ll make it too.

I’m writing a very personal thread from my 2022-2025 trading journal - real wins and losses, depression, mental health tools, and how to come back after you think it’s over

Like if you want to know more about my story + follow so you don’t miss it (I hope it may be helpful for someone struggling right now)

If you or a friend need helplines these days, check my pinned🙏

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@shaams A man of culture! $1.25M at top, trading from 2016. Now sitting at $25k .

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

Who would rationally buy $CRCL now? Dump it.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

Macro thesis for the upcoming food shock🌾

The Catalyst: War with Iran > Strait of Hormuz closed > Oil $100+ > Severe fertilizer shortages

Global agriculture will take a massive hit, but my main asymmetric bet is Sugar

Sugar's total "Mcap" is ~$80B, but its Circulating Supply (warehouse stock) is only ~$17B

When oil spikes, mills will immediately pivot from sugar to bioethanol. This can evaporate ~10M tons ($4.5B) from the physical market in month

Food corps will be forced to market buy futures at any price just to secure inventory. With a tiny free float and thin liquidity, this supply shock easily sends Sugar +20-30% in weeks

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@BuckHardMoney @BitcoinNews 10% APY sounds institutional‑grade until you read the fine print. Yield without risk is just marketing

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@zerohedge The Wall Street Journal and Reuters say Claude was present on classified systems via Palantir, but they don’t show it was used to kill anyone - more likely it helped with data analysis or intelligence support, not a killchain.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@unusual_whales Promises are cheap. Commitment is where risk shows.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

You think risk is about money. It’s about what you’re willing to lose.
9 years in one story. Coming today.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@Crypto_Zasranec trust

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@VitalikButerin Build for risk management, and the volume will follow.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@Cointelegraph Search gives answers. AI gives agency. That’s the difference.”

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@AshCrypto Levels matter less than behavior. $2,100 is a test, not a victory

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@zerohedge Billions pledged. Reality checks happen elsewhere - on the frontlines.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@unusual_whales Power writes its own rulebook. Markets just reflect it.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

Metals move when risk becomes measurable.
Nothing dramatic has happened but the probability distribution shifted. Hormuz is even a variable now and capital adjusts, not panic, just allocation. Oil carries a premium before events confirm it and that premium does not stay in oil, it flows into inflation expectations, policy constraints, the price of liquidity. Gold is not pricing war, it is pricing uncertainty. Right now the market is paying for probability.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@unusual_whales Power projection is not war.
But markets price risk before history confirms it.
Oil will move before missiles do.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@saylor @Strategy Outperforms… until liquidity tightens. Credit always answers to cycles

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@DeItaone Markets watch tariffs.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@BullTheoryio $1T in 2 hours tells you everything: this market doesn’t correct, it reloads.

[Riskofirma 🎲 @riskofirma]

@AshCrypto $500M USDC minted. The market just got a caffeine shot.