Rizky Toekan

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⤵️ This Link for you

[nodi_macro @nodi_macro]

$BTC is on track 🧲

[EliZ @eliz883]

I was one of the first #ONEPIECE Piece fans! When no one else watched it and I had to wait a day or two to see the next episode, that was pure joy!

Many were still embryonic. I was 13 years old when I started watching it.

[EliZ @eliz883]

🎁 HOLIDAY GIVEAWAY! 🎁🎅🎄

Win a 1-YEAR FREE MEMBERSHIP to join @WealthGroup!

To enter, complete all 3 steps:

✔️ Like & Retweet
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[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

🔥GRAYSCALE BULLISH ON AI CRYPTO

Grayscale’s Decentralized #AI Fund allocated 32.92% into $TAO and 28.74% into $NEAR, a combined 61.66% allocation.

[EliZ @eliz883]

$TAO pair BTC

It did exactly what I wanted to see: liquidity swept below the key level and immediately recovered.
When the market drops to take stops and then rebounds, that's not weakness: it's foundation building.

Now let's see if it confirms above the level and starts to build structure.

[EliZ @eliz883]

$TAO pair BTC bottom in

[Joe Mitoshi 👨🏻‍🚀 @CryptoSays]

Awesome PA on $TAO here too. With that Chikou finding support at the Kumo, and that green cloud ahead. 👺

[Don 🐂 @DonWedge]

This guy guessed the bitcoin top before, will he be right again?

[EliZ @eliz883]

$BTC update weekly close

BTC is consolidating above a demand zone, defended by a dynamic trendline.
The structure remains intact as long as it does not lose the 107 area; the bias remains neutral. Losing it will lead to a sell-off down to the 100/94 area.

The ascending trendline is accompanying the price and has already provided several bullish reactions.
Every time the price retests it, buying arrives → a signal that demand is present and defending the trend.

The highlighted red zone represents: inefficiency to be mitigated (candle imbalance) - levels where strong hands previously entered - clearly visible higher lows.

0.75 fib retracement coincides with: price structure and demand zone.

The upper band highlighted in red (117 area) is the area from which the price has been rejected several times.

A weekly and 2D close above that zone is needed to free up liquidity and pave the way for new highs.

For weekly chart 👉🏻Consolidated range between 110K ⬅️➡️121K

Breakout of the 121K zone = bullish expansion
Breakdown of 108K = possible retest of the macro demand zone at 90–88K

The OBV is clearly in a downward trend.
While the price has remained sideways in recent weeks, the OBV has continued to fall.

During price rebounds, there is no aggressive volume, so the strong hands are not accumulating as strongly at the moment.

Unfortunately, the OBV is showing signs of weakness! I need a recovery in the OBV in the coming days or weeks to hope, according to my objective analysis, to reach new highs! Here, I
see it as difficult. Until then, any pump without volume is manipulation.

[EliZ @eliz883]

Macro view $ETH

At the moment, I prefer to stay out of the $ETH market, as the price action on the weekly timeframe is not yet providing clear directional signals. This week is crucial:
a close above the red box would confirm support and increase the likelihood of a retest of the upper resistance.
Conversely, a weekly close below the red box would invalidate the current structure, increasing the risk of the range between these areas continuing and deteriorating momentum for the coming weeks.

Until I see a clear weekly close above the green box support and with direction towards resistance, I prefer to stay out and watch. It is better to react to the price than to anticipate it. Obviously for a macro view.

For key level

The upper zone (green box) represents the area of recovery. A weekly close above this level would indicate a return of strength and demand. In such a scenario, sentiment would improve and the likelihood of capital rotation towards altcoins would increase.

The lower zone (red box) is the structural support for the trend. As long as the price remains above this area, the market is in a consolidation phase. A weekly close below this level would compromise the bullish structure, opening the door to a progressive downward movement, with a deterioration in momentum and a potentially bearish market environment.

For trades on low TMF different strategies

[EliZ @eliz883]

$TAO update

After a strong bullish expansion, the price broke decisively: the main downward trend line
and the supply zone (in red) that had previously rejected the price

The breakout occurs with an impulsive candlestick, signalling buyer dominance.

Subsequently, the price is returning to the area from which the acceleration started:
this is the retest zone, which coincides with the 0.75 Fibonacci level (red line).

Retest trend first sign of reversal
Pullback in the 0.75 zone confirmation of the breakout
Possible restart in the red box

As long as the price remains above 400, the structure remains intact and the bias remains bullish.

If we look at the monthly chart, we can see that if the price maintains its monthly close above the breakout, the structure shifts from accumulation to expansion.

After several months of consolidation and volatility at the lower end of the range, the price has:
With halving on the way (but remember that BTC must help us, otherwise it too will lose the monthly),
👉🏻formed rising lows (accumulation),
👉🏻broken the trendline with a strong candle and full body.

[Kevin Sailly @KevinSailly_]

The Fed Uda Resmi Mengakhiri QT ( Apa Artinya Tuh Buat Market? )

The Fed baru aja konfirmasi bakal menghentikan Quantitative Tightening (QT) mulai 1 Desember 2025.
Kabar besar buat likuiditas global. Tapi, ga perlu FOMO yah.. Ada beberapa hal yang perlu di mengerti dulu.

1️⃣ QT ≠ QE.
Banyak yang salah paham di sini.
Berhenti QT bukan berarti Fed mulai cetak uang (QE).
Artinya : Mereka berhenti nyedot likuiditas, bukan nambah likuiditas baru.
Analogi gampangnya : Rem-nya dilepas, tapi gas-nya belum diinjek.

2️⃣ Short-Term = Bisa Bullish. [ Harusnya yah.. ]
Begitu tekanan likuiditas berhenti, aset berisiko harusnya akan lebih bersinar.
Biasanya Indices, BTC, ETH bakal rebound dulu karena sentimen “Fed Pivot” & euforia likuiditas.
Paling tidak ini bisa jadi konfirmasi untuk lanjutan rally di Q4 ini.

3️⃣ Tapi Mid-Term = Perlu Waspada Cycle Top.
Dalam logika saya, Whales bisa banget pake momen positif ini buat mark-up harga dan distribusi ke retail yang baru FOMO masuk.
Pake Euphoria market buat distribusi pelan-pelan.

4️⃣ Logika sederhananya :
QT jalan → akumulasi
QT mau berhenti → market markup → retail FOMO
QT selesai → whales exit pelan-pelan → cycle top terbentuk
Jadi ini momen “Buy the rumor, sell the news” klasik.

5️⃣ Apa yang perlu kita pantau :
> ETF inflow - Mulai melambat atau tetap ada strong demand
> BTC.D berhenti naik - Rotasi ke Alts artinya tanda cycle top juga
> Funding & OI tinggi tapi harga stagnan [ Resiko flush out dan cycle top ]

Kalau pattern itu muncul → tanda markup lagi jalan → yang artinya distribution lagi berjalan juga.

Kesimpulan :
Jika rally berlangsung, cukup nikmati rally-nya, tapi siapin plan keluar.
Good news buat whales = kesempatan jualan.

Open for discussion, ini opini pribadi yah.
Jadi sangat bisa salah dalam memberikan penilaian atau arti dari QT yang akan dihentikan per tanggal 1 Desember 2025 nanti.

Note aja, pengumuman resmi ini disertai dengan shake-out dari Powell sendiri saat Press Conference dimulai.
Statementnya adalah : December cut jadi ga terlalu yakin.

[Drazzzzz @crypt0draz]

$BTC Moon Cycle Update - October 13th - Last Quarter Moon 🌗

Greetings fellow cryptocurrency enthusiast - what a wild time to be in the markets!

An "exciting" finish to the bright period of the moon. Overall, we ended slightly higher than we started -- even with the Binance exchange liquidity flush that triggered the largest crypto liquidation event in history!

Now that we have crossed the Last Quarter Moon🌗, I would expect some sideways consolidation (and hopefully some recovery) before more bullish energy enters the markets on Oct 29th, the next First Quarter Moon 🌓.

I hope you can see that the Moon Cycles are something valuable to keep track of...

Now, you may think I'm a purveyor of woo-woo astrology predictions, but I would like to call out some data from the work of @TradingHurst that backs up tracking the moon cycle, he commented under one of my updates last week and we got talking.

@TradingHurst's Sigma-L uses signal processing modeling on BTC which finds time frequency cycles in charts. His modeling found 29.75 day cycles with BTC. The moon cycles average between 29.5-29.8 days!

All the low points match the First Quarter Moon 🌓(beginning of uptrend - green dots 🟢) and all the high points match to the Last Quarter Moon 🌗(end of uptrend - red dots 🔴). Pretty exciting to find computer modeling that backs up what I've been tracking with the moon cycles!

I chatted with @TradingHurst a bit, and both of us have noticed that around late 2023/early 2024 this cycle really started to affect the markets. What caused that, who knows.

But for now, they work and they work well! I'll take it as a market edge.

@TradingHurst's Sigma-L technology also identified an 80 day cycle, with the low starting September 13th, and the High ending Oct 26. You can also see the shorter 29.75 day cycles in dotted lines on the chart. These 2 cycles interact with each other!

This leads me to believe the next dark period of the moon is bullish consolidation, with some exciting peak action in early November.

Stay grounded out there in the markets. Remember that you are a creator being, a divine spark of The One, which is experiencing itself through your life consciousness.

This means your thoughts create reality, so be sure to stay positive, even amidst your losses and mistakes. We all make them. It's what we do with them moving forward that matters.

The Last Quarter moon 🌗 is the time to release what no longer serves you, and I hope you'll join me in doing that.

Feel free to comment below with your thoughts, I'd love to hear them.

Until next time.

- Drazzzzz

🧘

[Drazzzzz @crypt0draz]

$BTC Moon Cycle Update - October 29th - First Quarter Moon 🌓

You've made it! Through the void of the dark moon phase into the bright one, once again.

In my life (not just the markets) this time feels a little raw, tiresome, challenging, and taxing to endure.

Probably doesn't help to have market price action do the same thing 😂. But as we expected, there was choppy price action during the dark phase.

On this First Quarter Moon 🌓we should enter a period of enthusiasm in the markets with energy returning. I expect bullish action.

Not to mention, October, November and December all have SUPERMOONS which should make things extra intense -- this is when when a full moon aligns with the moon being closest to the earth in its orbit!

If you haven't read my moon updates before, the theory (which has been working) is this:

📉Dark Moon (🌗🌑🌓) [space between boxes] = bearish
📈Bright Moon (🌓🌕🌗) [yellow boxes] = bullish

We find ourselves at a critical point in the markets:

☑️ The 4 year cycle (if it exists) is ending now-ish
☑️ Q4 is expected to be bullish
☑️ When altseason happens historically, it happens in the final stages (i.e. now)

And so, amidst all the swirling thoughts and emotions of this space:

- doom / gloom
- it's a bear market already / it's just getting started
- altseason / no altseason
- shill / hype
- ego / i'm-right-ism
- sell this it hasn't moved / buy this it's running
- take profit / wait for more
- 4-year cycle alive / 4-year cycle dead

You will need to clear your mind and trust guidance and intuition to guide you through these crazy times.

These markets are brutal and unexpected. For the last peak in Q4 '24 / Q1 '25, memes topped in november, alts topped in early december, btc topped in january. The ultimate fakeout.

This means you need to be disciplined in order to survive the next wave of euphoria, whenever it comes.

As I've alluded to before, if we get bullish action during the dark period after the next 14 days (starting Nov 11 Last Quarter Moon 🌗) this is a sign of "the end being near". I've also noticed major peaks (esp altcoins) happen around the new moon (during the dark phase). 🌑

Other than that, my guess is as good as yours. I'll be here calling it as I've observed, but moon cycles are just one small piece to the story.

I use them to help manage expectations during short-term price movements, and determine if the trend is changing if something unexpected happens.

I appreciate you being here and following along, truly hope these analyses have helped you in some way.

🌓 For this First Quarter Moon, put into action what you need to accomplish to reach your goals! Ideas are just ideas, thoughts are just thoughts, until you put them in the material plane.

If you're working on something, just getting it started is the first step to success. Messy starts are beautiful.

So do the thing, complete the chore, write the beginning sentence, build the first piece, take the first step.

I hope you are well, talk next week.

- Drazzzzz

[Rizky Toekan @rizkyfjr]

@CryptoWizardd Thanks to you and @eliz883 I keep accumulating for $TAO 😆

[Rizky Toekan @rizkyfjr]

@eliz883 Dude, it's my second year in crypto, and I've been watching you for a year now. You've hooked me up with free money even on X, and I hate X's notifications, but I turn them on for your posts, haha. Thanks for all the posts you make for us.

[Rizky Toekan @rizkyfjr]

@Trader1PA 5Su5hVYafZ4pHnv54fs5Uue4aUrCD6Qyhi4AeVhEC7uw

GM sir 🤭

[Rizky Toekan @rizkyfjr]

@eliz883 🔥🔥🔥

[Rizky Toekan @rizkyfjr]

@eliz883 Im with you 🔥🔥🔥

[Rizky Toekan @rizkyfjr]

@Trader1PA 5Su5hVYafZ4pHnv54fs5Uue4aUrCD6Qyhi4AeVhEC7uw

Thanks brother