Reuben Nocos

Sober individual in a perpetual state of self-discovery.

[MeidasTouch @MeidasTouch]

El-Sayed: Now Mike, I'm just going to remind you: if you don't know how to say the name, keep the name out your damn mouth. Or just call me Abdul. But I got some opinions about his name. See, it's very fitting for him: Rogers.

Cause that's his answer every time a corporation or Donald Trump tells him to do something.

"Mike, we need you to put a data center in the backyard." — "Roger!"

"Mike, we need you to hike their prescription drug prices." — "Roger!"

"Mike, we need you to rubber-stamp this war we shouldn't be fighting." — "Roger!"

"Mike" — and this one's Donald Trump — "I need you to lick these boots." — "Roger!"

And I think—I think I speak for all of us here in Michigan when I say that we are done with Rogers. Go back to Florida where you belong!

[Breitbart News @BreitbartNews]

"Reacher" star Alan Ritchson calls President Trump a "f**king rapist" in a tirade about the Epstein files.

"That b*tch has the keys to the nuclear codes. He's, like, all up into 13-year-olds. Like, dude, what? Go to jail.”

[David J. Bier @David_J_Bier]

Whoa. This does not reflect well on the new ICE recruits who we had already heard so much about.

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

When I heard about Senator Graham’s death last night, the first thing I thought about was not all the things he said and did in service of Donald Trump. I thought of the time before Donald Trump when he was a brother to Senator John McCain.

A time when senators from different parties could fight about politics and still be friends. A time when a conservative Republican from South Carolina could say of my father: “If you can’t admire Joe Biden as a person, you’ve got a problem. He’s the nicest person I’ve ever met in politics. As good a man as God ever created.”

That is the Senator Graham I will remember today. Not because I have forgotten what came after. Because in that memory there is hope. Hope for a country where brothers can fight like hell over policy and still share a meal, and a laugh, and the loss of the people they love.

I will choose to remember the time before Trump. Because I believe in an America after Trump.

[Reuben Nocos @rlnocos]

@hissgoescobra Leaf him alone!

[Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) @adamscochran]

1/ 7

Realized a MASSIVE hole in Thomas' reasoning that would create a chaotic loophole:

* A child born here to non-US parents could end up Stateless but present in the US.

BUT that's an issue:

-Under INA § 101(a)(42), 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42) an asylum claim regarding being 'stateless' is not enough for asylum to be granted.

[Bharat Ramamurti @BharatRamamurti]

I expanded on these points in my new piece today. First, are the Court's two holdings yesterday reconcilable? No. 1/

[E. Jean Carroll @ejeancarroll]

This Win Is For Every Woman in the World!!

Supreme Court Lets Sex Abuse Verdict STAND against President Trump

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

What are the Oil Sanction Waivers that the United States just issued for Iran, how much money will Iran earn from them, and why are they so significant?

Let's take a deep dive look into this major concession from Washington.

Under Article 10 of US/Iran Memorandum of Understanding, it states:
"The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc."

Before we get into the juicy details, I want to attach a TLDR for those who don’t have a five minute attention span:
These waivers allow Iran to sell oil to more countries, and receive payment more easily
Iran only sees a benefit of ~$11 to $15 per barrel
Realistic estimates place the maximum windfall from this initial set of waivers at $2B to $3B
The strategic benefit of unwinding the damage of the blockade is more significant that the total financial benefit
This will begin to cement Iran’s victory in the war, and eliminate the chance that a future blockade could be successful

You'll notice that right off the bat, it says "immediately upon the signing of this MOU". Technically speaking, these should have been issued on either 6/14 when it was signed electronically, or on 6/17 when it was signed physically by Trump at Versailles.

So why does Iran need these waivers in the first place? Due to US sanctions, Iran is not able to transact with the rest of the world. However, that does NOT mean that Iran "doesn't sell any oil". Under non-war conditions, Iran generally sells 1.5M to 2.0M barrels per day to China, a country that purchases ~90% of Iran's oil exports. But... sanctions? Impossible! Because the purchasers of Iran's oil are what are referred to as "teapot refineries", meaning small to medium sized oil refineries that use the oil almost exclusively for purposes inside of China, they would see very little damage to their business if sanctioned.

However, because Iran has very few countries that are willing to risk these sanctions, this reduces demand, and increases buyer leverage, forcing down prices. This means that Iran sells to China and co at a discount to normal oil prices. Before the war was initiated on February 28th, Iranian oil was trading at a ~$10/barrel discount to Brent. Given that the price of Brent on 2/27 was ~$66/barrel, this means that Iranian oil would be selling at roughly ~$56/barrel, a 15% discount.

However, because Iran is so extensively sanctioned, they can't easily gain access to the revenues from these sales through simple bank transactions. They generally either A) keep the revenues inside of Chinese banks that are then used to offset import of goods from China, or B) laundered through a web of front and shell companies before moving into bank accounts the regime has managed to retain access to. Particularly in the case of "B", it costs money to set up these front and shell companies, to pay the middle men, to conduct the necessary work to make this all happen, thus further reducing their "realized revenues". This generally is estimated to see an impact of ~$7/barrel to the revenues seen by Iran from the sale of their oil.

By issuing waivers on the sanctions related to the ability for countries to purchase, pay for, transport, etc. Iranian oil, this both lessens the discount to Brent that Iranian oil trades for due to increased purchasing competition, and lowers Iran’s expenses, increasing their realized revenue share.

So… How much are we talking here?

A good point of comparison as to the impact on pricing this can have is the impact we saw from the United States’ decision in March to issue sanction waivers on Iranian oil sales. Under General License U, which applied to roughly 160M of Iranian oil, we saw a significant shift in the discount to Brent that Iranian oil was trading at. So much so that it actually rose to a PREMIUM to Brent. While GL-U didn’t have the expansiveness of these waivers today, notably no banking, insurance, or transport waivers, the ability for Iranian oil to have increased competition from buyers saw notable revenue increases for Iran. As mentioned before, on 2/27, the day before the war, Iranian oil was trading at a $10/barrel discount to Brent. By March 20th, that had risen to a $7/barrel discount… and then came GL-U. In just a week from this waiver being issued, Iranian oil rose by $8/barrel, all the way to a $1/barrel PREMIUM. Over the next two weeks, that reached as high as a $3/barrel premium to Brent. Total shift? ~$11/barrel.

Now realistically, would we expect to see a jump in Iranian price-to-Brent of $11/barrel under these new waivers? Likely not, as that would mean purchasers paying $10/barrel more than Brent. Would it be reasonable to expect Iranian oil to perhaps see a ~$4-$8/barrel price increase? That seems more likely.

So, dear reader, congratulations, you have now passed level 1. ~$4-$8/barrel.

How much MONEY does that mean Iran is going to earn now as a result of this waiver? Well that will of course very much depend on how many countries are still able to purchase Iranian oil, given that the EU, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, and South Korea all have sanctions on it regardless of whether or not the United States lifts their own sanctions. Under General License U, the primary purchaser of Iranian oil was still China, followed by the UAE and India. We may see new countries enter the fray under this more expansive set of waivers, but the important point is that just because the US lifted sanctions, that doesn’t mean it’s open season either.

Under pre-war conditions, Iran sold approximately 2.0M barrels of oil per day. Of course, due to more than 1.1B barrels of oil being taken offline due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it would be reasonable to assume that Iran will be able to sell more than normal. How much more though is the question… As of today, Iran has ~30M barrels of oil still inside the Strait of Hormuz loaded onto vessels already, and then another ~90M on vessels outside the SoH. In addition to this, they also have ~60M in storage containers inside of Iran and Kharg Island. This total sum means that Iran has ~180M barrels of oil that they can immediately sell to purchasers. Over the course of 60 days, that means Iran can sell an absolutely maximum daily amount from already extracted oil of 3M barrels per day. Now, in addition to Iran’s already loaded or stored oil, Iran is producing about 2.33M barrels of oil per day, of which, they consume about 2M domestically, leaving an excess production available for export of ~0.3M barrels per day. Prior to the start of the war however, Iran was exporting at a rate of ~2Mbpd. It will take time for Iran to safely ramp up production of their oil wells (which I should note, have NOT shut-in or seen catastrophic damage), but it should be factored in that Iran will not be able to immediately begin extracting at levels seen immediately prior to the war. As a result, it would be reasonable to estimate that on top of the 180M barrels already produced and ready for sale, Iran will also be able to extract excess oil of ~500kbpd that can be then exported out of the Strait of Hormuz. Over a 60-day time period, that means that Iran will be able to generate excess supply of ~30M barrels. However, it needs to be factored in that it takes about 2-3 weeks for vessels to sail from Iran to their end purchasers, meaning that in a 60-day waiver, only ~43 days of production can be accounted for. This means that, at best, 21.5M barrels can be produced and sold during this window, for a total pool of sellable oil of ~201.5M barrels.

Over the course of 60 days, that means that the maximum total daily sales volume of Iranian oil is ~3.4M barrels per day. With Iranian oil likely to receive a premium to Brent of ~$4 to $8 per barrel, that means that Iran can earn up to between $13.6M to $27.2M per day as a result of these waivers. When we include to this figure the ~$7/barrel of realized revenues that Iran will see due to being able to more cheaply transport their oil, and more efficiently be paid out on the purchases due to the transport and banking waivers, this means that Iran can earn a total of between $37.4M to $51.0M per day of total realized revenue increases as a result of the complete menu of waivers released today from the United States. Over the course of the 60-day window, this calculates out to a grand total of between $2.24B and $3.06B of additional revenue for Iran. It should be noted that this assumes Iran is able to sell ALL of their possible oil over this period of time, something that is unlikely to occur.

Congratulations my fellow traveler, you have successfully passed level 2.

Now to the most important question: Why does this MATTER?

On April 13th, the United States imposed a blockade on Iran that cut off almost all of their ability to import and export goods via the Strait of Hormuz. Due to this waterway being the single largest method of trade for Iran, this imposed significant economic damage to the country. Not enough to topple them, not even enough to force them to make even the smallest of concessions at the negotiating table, but it is money lost from the regime that had a weak economy even before the war or the blockade. While Washington constantly tossed around the claim that Iran was losing “$500M per day”, that is simply a ridiculous figure. Even the original analysis that Washington drew this figure from only claimed an inflated figure of $435M per day that Iran would be losing as a result of the blockade. Due to calculations discussed in previous posts, which I will spare you from today, a far more likely figure for daily losses to Iran as the result of the US blockade is likely closer to $175M/day. This is due to a variety of factors, not least of which is the fact that Iran earned MORE in May, the month after the blockade was imposed, than they did in January, before the war even started, as a result of selling the oil already loaded onto vessels outside the US blockade line and sold to China at a daily rate of 1.1M/day at significantly higher prices than before the war.

The US blockade officially ended on June 18th, lasting 66 days. At daily losses of $175M/day, that means Iran lost approximately $11.55B during more than two months of US economic warfare. The single greatest concern right now for Iran is not continued strikes from the United States, it is maintaining control of their economy and population that has endured significant economic hardship throughout this war. Now, let me be clear… Iran was not even close to economic collapse or seeing so much economic devastation that they would make major concessions at the negotiating table. This is something I have argued very publicly since the day the blockade was imposed, and have been proven right by the US capitulation in the Memorandum of Understanding. But with that said, every dollar that Iran can unwind of these losses throughout the two months of the blockade make it that much more insane for Washington to attempt to reimpose in the future with any realistic expectation that it could now produce a different result. That is why these oil sanction waivers matter so much to Iran. It’s the cementing of their victory by eliminating the only possible, regardless of how unlikely, path to victory the United States still had remaining. This is also the same reason why the frozen assets being released to Iran in the coming days are so significant. Not because they are game-changing for Iran, a country of 93M, from a revenue perspective, but because it permanently shuts the door in Washington’s face.

With up to $3B of additional revenues that Iran can earn from the sale of their oil over the course of the 60 days of the US oil sanction waivers, Iran turns leverage into concession, and ends the only remaining hope of a US victory in Iran.

[John Jackson @hissgoescobra]

This Tulsi Gabbard story is somehow both insane and not surprising. She was a literal flesh mannequin whose entire career is a sham: thousands of documents show her positions and "beliefs" were simply those of her "eat my toenails" cult leader. Let's dive into a thread.

[Greg Olear @gregolear]

This man is Chris Butler (b. 1948), aka Jagad Guru Siddhaswarupananda Paramahamsa. He's the founder of the Science of Identity Foundation (SIF), a fringe yogic sect based in Hawai’i.

He is the “guru” of #Tulsi Gabbard, who was a child of the Science of Identity cult.

[THREAD]

[Reuben Nocos @rlnocos]

@MaxwellFrostFL The voices in his head.

[Yashar Ali 🐘 @yashar]

The replies 🥺

[Alex Ward @alexbward]

Lincoln’s letter to Mrs. Bixby, always worth a read on Memorial Day

[Danny Deraney @DannyDeraney]

Every year, I share this video of French caretakers who take sand from Omaha Beach in Normandy, and scrub them into the letters to give them the gold coloring.

They do this for all 9,386 US soldiers who died.

France also gave us this land as American soil. #MemorialDayWeekend

[Jesus Falcis 🇵🇭 @jesusfalcis]

@mehdirhasan the person you demolished, excuse me, i mean interviewed years ago is now the Senate President of the Philippines.

You might want to invite Alan Peter Cayetano again for another interview. 😂

#Senate

[Reuben Nocos @rlnocos]

@jesusfalcis @mehdirhasan Great find.

[BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY🇵🇸🪂 @lwsrk]

@bballbreakdown this angle is insane. he actually jumped before catching the ball https://t.co/hSUFQVoVgW

[The Hollywood Reporter @THR]

I Used to Be a Hollywood Writer. Now I'm Lugging Lumber From Home Depot. It's an Upgrade. https://t.co/lzecuhfNFp

[Charlotte Clymer 🇺🇦 @cmclymer]

Look, y'all... this is eight minutes. I know that's far stretching the bounds of social media attention. But you should watch @AmbassadorRice completely dismantle Trump's foreign policy. It's comprehensive. It's precise. It's a wake-up call for those who need it.