Crypto-power

2003年次/2021開始研究加密技術。不被羊群吸引，與他人所認為的錨定不同。這是什麼意思我突然想到的🤔

[Crypto-power @rlpuhda]

Check out my #BTCUSDT.P analysis on @TradingView: https://t.co/y2TjnLfIT1

[Arkham @arkham]

The ETH Validator Exit Queue has dropped to ZERO.

NOBODY is waiting to unstake ETH.

[Dr.Hash 赛博哈希 @DrHashClub]

今天这波涨，是空头的血推上来的，不是买盘推上来的。

· 24h 爆仓：BTC 空单 $8,462 万 vs 多单 $548 万 = 15.4 : 1
· BTC 合约 OI +5.16%（$519.5 亿）——价涨 + 持仓涨，有新钱进场，不是单纯平仓
· 但资金费率全贴零轴，OKX 永续甚至 -0.0035% = 多头一点都不拥挤，没人愿意为追高付费
· Coinbase 溢价 -0.028% / -$18.63，仍在折价 = 美国现货压根没跟

一句话：合约盘的轧空，现货盘的旁观。

再看期权：本周 MaxPain 65,500 / 65,000 / 64,000，全部落在现价 66,5xx 的下方。日线上 MA100 70,173、MA200 72,865 还压在头顶，这仍然是熊市反弹的框架。

不是说不能做，是别把「空头被踩爆」当成「多头赢了」。轧空行情的特点是走得快、回得也快——追进去的人，往往就是下一轮爆仓数据里的那一半。

追多之前先想清楚：谁在替你抬轿子，他什么时候下班。

走着看🧊

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

A whale has opened a $64,000,000 $ETH long with 10x leverage.

Previously, this trader made over $3.6 million in profits with a 75% win rate.

Why would someone place a bet this big on Ethereum just before the CLARITY Act hearing?

[Farside Investors @FarsideUK]

𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝗧𝗙 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝘄 (𝗨𝗦$ 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻) – 2026-07-17

TOTAL NET FLOW: 132.3

IBIT: 136.5
FBTC: -4.2
BITB: 0
ARKB: 0
BTCO: 0
EZBC: 0
BRRR: 0
HODL: 0
BTCW: 0
MSBT: 0
GBTC: 0
BTC: 0

[炼金叔叔 @AirdropAlchemis]

Robinhood谁在赚？
叔叔在赚🙋

MEME只冲 cash-cat:native
买了之后掉头就在Uniswap组LP，只要不腰斩，用时间来换手续费总能吃到点。

判断的依据很简单：我不信Robinhood背后资本就只想搞一波Meme流，毕竟还是想把基础设施搞起来，然后RWA、DeFi、预测市场等应用再炒起来。

所以，龙一绝不会腰斩到100m以下，欢迎打脸👀

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 NOW: President Trump takes HUGE victory lap over the "experts" in the Oval Office after US inflation PLUMMETS -0.4% in one month, the largest decline in 6 years

"The report was incredible, INFLATION IS WAY DOWN."

"Remember that for the midterms!" 🇺🇸

[allincrypto 熬鹰资本 🇨🇳 @thankUcrypto]

Spacex周一不做反弹回152以上的话，应该下跌通道就要打开了，参考各种VC币走法，希望能吃一根加速大肉。

[Dr.Hash 赛博哈希 @DrHashClub]

「战争 = 加息」最纯粹的一天：黄金和 BTC 一起跌，而市场定价的那道税，根本没写进命令

7 月 13 日（周一，加州时间）。今天是这轮行情里，「战争是通胀事件、不是避险事件」这条链最纯粹的一天：打得越凶 → 油越涨 → 通胀预期越高 → 黄金和 $BTC 【一起】跌。

黄金今天 -2.88%，收 4,000.6，日内最低 3,986，四位数关口一度丢掉。BTC 从早间的 62,544 跌到 61,985（-3.42%）。同一时间原油结算 +9.4%。

别再指望战争利多 BTC —— 这已经是第五次落空。

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【一、宏观：战争溢价正在被"制度化"成加息】

美股：标普 7,539（-0.48%）｜纳指 26,004（-1.05%）｜道指 52,499（-0.26%）
费城半导体 12,476，盘中一度 -4.9% —— 全场最惨，杀的是存储，不是 AI。
收盘：WTI 结算 78.14（+9.42%）｜布伦特 83.30（+9.59%）｜黄金 4,000.6（-2.88%）｜10 年美债 4.61%｜VIX 16.93（+12.6%）｜美元 101.14（+0.17%）

⭐ 今天必须记住的一句话：市场现在几乎完全定价 9 月加息，并且充分定价到明年 3 月底加息两次。一周前，9 月加息概率才 66%。

传导链没变，但被加固了：油涨 → 通胀 → 加息 → 实际利率上行 → 同时压死黄金（无息资产）+ 纳指（估值杀）+ BTC（高久期风险资产）。

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【二、今天最大的错配：市场定价的那道税，正式命令里没有】

特朗普今晨宣布：即刻恢复"封锁伊朗"，美国将成为"霍尔木兹海峡守护者"，并对所有通过海峡的货物运输收取 20% 费用。这是加息定价跳升的直接触发点。

但中午，正式军事命令落地了 —— 请看清楚它到底封了什么：

美国中央司令部公告：美东时间 7/14 下午 4 点（加州明天 13:00）起，恢复对伊朗港口的海上封锁，适用所有船舶不论国旗，覆盖伊朗全部海岸线与石油码头。

⭐⭐ 而命令里有一句话是今天最被忽略的重点：
「封锁【不会妨碍】中立船只经霍尔木兹海峡往返非伊朗目的地的过境通行。」

也就是说，特朗普喊的那道「对所有过峡货物收 20% 过路费」，【根本没有写进正式命令】。真正落地的，只是针对伊朗自己出口的封锁。

这两件事完全不是一个量级：
· 封锁伊朗出口 = 切掉伊朗约 150–170 万桶/日 = 一次性供给冲击（所以油价涨）
· 对全峡货物收 20% = 一道永久性的全球贸易通胀税 = 这才是让市场定价【两次加息】的东西

📌 市场现在还在按后面那个定价，而官方命令里只有前面那个。今早我说「这道税很可能收不上来」—— 半天之后，它自己从命令里消失了。

旁证也都指向收不上来：欧盟外交高级代表卡拉斯公开反对「海峡不能收取任何通行费」；美国压根没和地区盟友商量过收费；国际水道收费的法律基础存疑。

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【三、双方其实都在讨价还价（被情绪盖住的信号）】

伊朗外长今天的原话：「特朗普说得完全没错。任何为商船安全通过霍尔木兹提供安全保障的一方，都应该因此获得报酬。不过 20% 当然太高了，【我们会公平收费】。」

同时伊朗议会国安委：「霍尔木兹的规则由伊朗制定。」

👉 翻译一下：双方吵的已经不是「打不打」，而是「过路费谁收、收多少」。这是谈判的语言，不是全面战争的语言。

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【四、新战线：胡塞把枪口对准沙特 —— 这才是油价 +9.4% 的真正原因】

也门胡塞武装今晚用弹道导弹和无人机袭击了沙特【阿卜哈国际机场】，并发布视频，公布了利雅得哈立德国王机场、吉达阿卜杜勒阿齐兹国王机场、达曼法赫德国王机场以及多个港口的航拍图【和经纬度坐标】，配文「回击即将到来」，警告所有航空公司不要在沙特领空飞行。

❗ 为什么这条比封锁伊朗更重要：伊朗自己的出口约 150–170 万桶/日，切掉是痛但可控。**沙特是真正的边际产油国（约 900 万桶/日）**。市场今天把油价拉 +9.4%，赌的不是伊朗，是沙特会不会被打进去。

其他实况：美军 12 日夜间打击 140 个伊朗目标（8 日 80 个、9 日 90 个，在升级）｜已连续三天无 LNG 船通过海峡｜船舶关闭应答器"暗中通航"的数量已超过可见通行｜韩国交易所触发年内第七次熔断（KOSPI 跌超 8%）。

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【五、技术面：今天最关键的事实，藏在 10 点到 11 点那一小时里】

⭐⭐ 三大币在【同一个小时】插针击穿各自的关键支撑，然后【全部收了回来】：

· ₿ BTC 日线 MA20 = 61,835。11:00 那根 1H 最低插到 61,800.5，收在 61,999 → 针出去了，收盘没破
· Ξ ETH 日线 MA50 = 1,749.7（全市场多头最后一根支柱）。11:00 最低插到 1,747，收在 1,764 → 守住了
· ◎ SOL 日线 MA50 = 74.05。最低 74.48，也没破

📌 这正是「扳机必须看 1H 收盘、不看插针」这条规矩在起作用。今天这三根针，按旧规矩会全部误报破位。

现价：BTC 61,985（-3.42%）｜ETH 1,764（-3.10%）｜SOL 74.77（-3.61%）
4H RSI：BTC 32.9 / SOL 32.4｜1H RSI：BTC 31.8 → 已进超卖区
上方参考：BTC 日线 MA50 64,337；4H MA20 63,728 / MA50 63,351（空头排列）

🟢 ETH 仍是三个里最强的：日线 RSI 52.1（最高）+ 唯一还站在日线 MA50 上方的。

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【六、衍生品：今天的下跌是「多头被清洗」，不是「新空进场」】

⭐⭐ 这是和今早【完全相反】的信号，也是今天最该看懂的一格：

· 近 4 小时爆仓：多头 2,339 万美元 vs 空头 132 万美元 = **多头被血洗 17.8 : 1**
· 同期未平仓合约（OI）473.4 亿美元，近 4 小时 **-0.47%（不增反减）**

早上是「价跌 + OI 增」= 新空进场，是燃料；现在是「价跌 + OI 减 + 多头巨额爆仓」= 老多头的止损被扫掉，仓位在净减少。下跌的性质变了。

🧩 配合上一段的三根针 —— 这批多头的止损，恰好被扫在了坑底，然后价格被买了回来。这是清洗，不是崩塌。

🔴 但空头这边还剩两张硬牌，别忽略：
· BTC 永续资金费率仍为【正】（约 +0.010%）= 多头还在付钱给空头 = 还没投降，还有燃料可烧
· 美国现货溢价 **-73.4 美元 / -0.118%**，比今早的 -0.106% 继续走阔 = 美国机构买盘在主动卖

恐贪 28（恐惧）｜MaxPain(7/14) 63,000｜期权隐含波动率 DVOL 38.2 vs 7 日已实现波动 39.4 = 隐含【仍低于】已实现。

⚖️ 换句话说：现在整个市场唯一"便宜"的东西是波动率。

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【七、交易建议（框架不变，但位置变了）】

📌 今早定的区间继续有效：**BTC 困在 61,300 ~ 64,700**。现在价格来到了【区间下沿】。

⚠️ 但下沿到得【不是时候】—— 明早 05:30（加州）美国 6 月 CPI，17 小时后。在全周唯一的二元事件前 17 小时买区间下沿，你买的不是区间，是在赌一个数据。请诚实地承认这一点。

✅ 三个选择，按推荐排序：
① **等 CPI 出完再动**（最推荐）—— 全现金不是踏空，是手里捏着选择权
② 一定要接：**只用平时 1/3 的仓位**，BTC 61,300–61,500，止损 60,800 下方。⚠️ 别把限价单挂在那儿然后走开 —— CPI 一根针可以直接穿过去再拉回来
③ 不做

🟢 **要做多，首选 ETH 不是 BTC**：日线 MA50 插针守住 + 资金费率已转负（空头开始付钱）+ 日线 RSI 三币最高。接多区 1,700–1,730，止损 1,665 下方。

🔴 **空单现在别补**：1H/4H RSI 都在 32 的超卖区、站在支撑上方、多头刚被洗完 —— 这是空头最差的进场位置。要空，等反抽 63,600–64,000 失败再说，止损放 64,700 上方（宽止损，别用 500 点紧止损被针洗）。

💾 存储三剑客：SNDK 1,707（-10.90%）｜MU 929.99（-5.04%）｜WDC 546.74（-6.15%）
存储见顶 thesis 完全兑现：SNDK 已跌破第一目标 1,733。
⚠️ 但别追 —— 一天 -10.9% 的垂直下杀，最差的 fill 就在这种时候。
✅ 要么等反抽 1,850–1,900 空（目标 1,733 → 1,485）
✅ 要么等接货多区 1,490–1,500 + 缩量止跌反包确认再做多

📌 纪律：崩盘日多空都别动手。

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【八、风险事件（按重要性排序）】

🔥🔥 **明早 05:30（加州）美国 6 月 CPI = 本周唯一的五星事件，也是所有框架的总开关**
· 预期：整体同比 3.8%（前值 4.2%）｜核心同比 2.9%（持平）｜环比 -0.10%
· ⭐ 关键口径：**6 月的数据里，不含 7 月这波油价**。所以大概率偏鸽
· 一旦偏鸽 → 打掉加息定价，而那道 20% 过路费本来就没写进命令 → 整条「战争 = 加息」的链条有两个东西可以同时反转。这是 BTC 和黄金反弹弹性最大的场景

🔥 明天 13:00（加州）伊朗港口封锁正式生效
🔥 周四 18:00（加州）特朗普发表全国讲话
⚠️ 胡塞 vs 沙特 = 新战线，是油价真正的上行风险，也是上面那个「偏鸽剧本」最大的敌人

📅 周三：韩国央行（预期加息至 2.75%）｜美国 6 月 PPI｜中国 Q2 GDP（预期 4.5%）
📅 周四：美国 6 月零售销售
📅 Fed 7/28–29

🟢 反向风险（别只盯一边）：OPEC 月报下调 2026 年需求预测（78 万桶/日，此前 97 万）｜绕过海峡的管道产能扩充，会给油价长期假设带来下行风险｜台积电 6 月营收 +67.9%、Meta 追加 400 亿数据中心投资 = AI capex 没死，杀的只是存储涨价叙事。

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一句话收尾：趋势是空的，但现在是等的时候，不是进的时候。两个能把整条逻辑链反转的开关，都在 17 小时内。

#BTC #ETH #CPI #Crypto

[喜羊羊（资源分享） @enoch4306]

2小时心理学基础入门，社会生存的五大能力、原生家庭与情感操控、认知升级。

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Kevin Warsh is the next Federal Reserve Chair.

Markets may confuse him as a "Hawk".

His actual stance in 2026 is nuanced.

Here's his policies and how they affect the markets:

1. AI/Semis ( $NVDA, $MU): Extremely Bullish
2. Metals (Silver, Gold): Extreme Bearish
3. Crypto ( $BTC, $CRCL ): Paradoxically bullish
4. Banking & Financials ( $JPM, $BOA ): Bullish
5. Housing & Real Estate: Mixed/Uncertain
6. Renewable Energy: Bearish
7. Small-Caps ( $RUT ) : Bullish
8. Foreign Stocks (Japan, Korea): Resilient
- Emerging Markets (EM): Extremely Bearish
- China & Hong Kong: Bearish
- Europe ( $VGK, $EZU): Cautious

1. AI/Semis ( Nvidia to Micron ): Extremely Bullish

Warsh is an AI Bull.

In late 2025, he argued that AI is a powerful dis-inflationary force. He believes AI-driven productivity gains will allow the economy to grow rapidly without triggering inflation.

This "productivity boom" gives him the intellectual "cover" to support rate cuts even if the economy remains strong. (The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership, November 16, 2025 WSJ)

This is much different than his earlier stances where markets expected him to be a rigid inflation hawk (someone who wants higher rates).

He is advocating for cuts and wants to accelerate AI development.

2. Metals (Silver, Gold): Extreme Bearish

Investors use gold as a hedge against a weak dollar and "money printing." Because Warsh wants to shrink the balance sheet and turn off the "printing press," the primary reason for holding gold is diminishing. A stronger U.S. Dollar is making metals more expensive for international buyers.

That being said the 33% intraday silver drop was mainly from other factors such as cascading liqudation from margin changes, though the new Fed chair likely played a minor role.

3. Crypto ( $BTC, $CRCL ): Paradoxically bullish

He famously stated, "If you're under 40, Bitcoin is your new gold." He views Bitcoin as a legitimate store of value and a generational shift away from physical metals.

He views the blockchain as "the newest and coolest software" and believes the U.S. must lead in this space to remain economically competitive against global rivals.

However; The "Paradox": Why Prices are Dropping:

The market is realizing that while Warsh wants lower interest rates, he also wants a smaller Fed balance sheet.

Investors are terrified that we are entering an era of "Rate Cuts without QE." You might get cheaper loans, but you won't get the massive "wall of money" that usually sends $BTC to all-time highs.

So we have a guy bullish on the technology of crypto, but his monetary discipline might hurt short-term liquidity.

4. Banking & Financials: Bullish

Warsh is a favorite of the banking sector due to his experience at Morgan Stanley and his vocal criticism of "mission creep." He is expected to roll back complex bank capital requirements (like Basel III). Analysts see this as a major win for regional and small-cap banks, as it frees up capital for lending.

5. Housing & Real Estate: Mixed

He wants to cut the Federal Funds Rate aggressively. This would immediately lower the cost of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) and construction loans.

However, the bear case is that Warsh is a fierce opponent of the Fed owning $2 trillion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Many economists warn this could push the 30-year fixed mortgage rate higher (potentially toward 7% or 8%) even as the Fed is cutting other interest rates.

6. Renewable Energy: Bearish

He intends to withdraw the Fed from global climate groups (like the Network for Greening the Financial System) and end "climate stress tests" for banks.

Under Jerome Powell, the Fed encouraged banks to consider climate risks in their lending. Warsh wants to end this, which effectively removes the "regulatory nudge" that made it easier for green projects to get favorable loan terms from major banks.

7. Small-Caps

Warsh has explicitly stated that he wants the Federal Reserve to focus on the "true drivers of the economy", small businesses and entrepreneurs, rather than just the "pampered princes" of Wall Street.

Warsh is expected to lead a significant rollback of complex banking capital requirements. This is strongly bullish for small caps. He intends to broaden access to capital for small firms by reducing the regulatory burden on the small and regional banks that do the majority of small-business lending.

8. Foreign Stocks

Warsh is expected to createa a divide between countries that benefit from a strong U.S. economy and those that are vulnerable to a stronger U.S. Dollar and tighter global liquidity.

Japan/Korea (Samsung, SK Hynix, etc): Japan and Korea are "fine" because they own the physical bottlenecks of the AI and robotics trades that Kevin Warsh believes will save the U.S. economy.

Usually, a strong USD is bad for foreign stocks, but for Japan and Korea, it’s a competitive weapon:

- Export Boost: Since most of their AI and robotics contracts are priced in USD, a stronger dollar means their revenue (when converted back to Yen, etc.) is massively inflated.

- Cheaper for the U.S.: Warsh’s "Strong Dollar" policy makes Japanese robots and Korean chips cheaper for American companies to buy. This accelerates the "Productivity Boom" Warsh wants while padding the profits of these foreign tech giants.

China: A stronger dollar puts pressure on the Yuan, making it harder for the PBoC (China's central bank) to cut their own rates to stimulate their struggling economy.

Emerging Markets: A stronger U.S. Dollar makes it much more expensive for emerging countries to service their dollar-denominated debt.

Europe: Dollar recovery could push the Euro lower, which helps European exports but increases their energy import costs.

_

On Friday, markets sold off sharply on Silver/Gold crashing, and hedging pulled liquidity out of the system.

Markets might confuse Warsh as a historical hawk.

However, recent statements show he's near term dovish and supports lower rates, accelerated by AI.

Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reductions but generally, many trades from AI to small cap growth are expected to continue.

[0x鸣人 @LuBtc888]

定投完全攻略：一条讲清，定投从开户到退休怎么做。

这一期，把定投从开户到退休串成一条完整流程。

对于讲定投，只能说是相当干货。

[0x鸣人 @LuBtc888]

如果你能坚持每晚睡前看一遍，

那么一个月后你的财商将会超越90%的人

《贫穷的本质》：穷人到底缺什么？

[Donald J. Trump Posts from Truth Social @DonaldTrumpNat]

BREAKING: US intelligence has warned the President Trump Administration that “Israel is likely to undermine Iran peace deal”

[Dr.Hash 赛博哈希 @DrHashClub]

🪙 币圈盘面｜鹰派FOMC落地，反应相对克制

₿ $BTC $65,340（24h -0.51%）：日内64,514–66,426，64,514瞬破64,758又收回——64,758仍是结构生命线
🔴 ETH $1,767（-1.37%）：弱于BTC、再失1,800，日内1,739–1,810，支撑1,740
🟡 SOL $73.18（-0.76%）：72-74区间抗跌

跌幅克制=FOMC前缩量观望已price in一部分。

#BTC #ETH #SOL

[Dr.Hash“Wesley” @CryptoApprenti1]

今晚全场都在屏息等沃什，但盘面有一个细节值得单独拎出来：ETH 是今天唯一跑赢 BTC 的主流。

数字不大——BTC $65,867 还在小幅收阴(-0.49%)、SOL 走平，只有 ETH +0.83% 站上 1,795。光看 K 线你会觉得这只是缩量里的随机波动。但链上给了另一个解释：有个地址叫 geministar.eth，过去一周从币安提了 32,513 枚 ETH，均价 $1,765，建了价值 5,740 万美元的多头，同期还往币安充了 3,809 万 USDC——摆明了准备继续买。

这就是我一直说的：价格只告诉你结果，链上告诉你是谁在动手。FOMC 前夜大多数人选择空仓观望，但总有人在别人犹豫的时候悄悄埋伏。

但别急着抄作业。这只是一个大户，不是机构整体——Coinbase 现货折价熬了一周到现在都没转正，说明美国机构这边整体还是看而不买。一个地址的 5,740 万，和整个市场的方向，是两回事。

我的纪律：ETH 相对强可以记下来当线索，但仓位别压在明天那一下之前。加州周三 11 点沃什首秀，鹰鸽一句话能把这点相对强直接抹平。看对一个信号不算赢，知道它什么时候不成立才算。$BTC #Ethereum

[蜡币小鑫 @zhuanfgghjnb]

笑疯了，妹子被评论区硬控住了，全是来擦边聊骚的

[CryptoReviewing @CryptoReviewing]

This manipulation is unreal.

Yesterday, $BTC dumped from $64,100 to $60,700 liquidating $456M.

Then today, $BTC immediately pumped back above $63,000 liquidating another $524M.

$980M total Crypto liquidations in less than 24 hours!!!

Now, $63,500 - $66,000 has sizable liquidity that could be swept next - potentially leading to higher levels.

However, $58,500 - $61,000 has slightly larger liquidation clusters stacked up making this the 'higher probability' zone to visit next.

Bulls are trying hard to fight back.

[炼金叔叔 @AirdropAlchemis]

兄弟们 继RAVE之后最大的机会来了！！

顶着资金费率做空 $LAB ！！

今年就靠这一单了！！