Hamrawi

Security consulting across East Africa. Specialising in Conflict Analysis, security policy Risk Intelligence | Peace & Stability | East Africa

[Hamrawi @rmconsultantgrp]

@Harooon148283 @Sagal_AW 😂😂😂😂

[Dilawar Karwan @RashmanTheHorse]

Jihadists are directly attacking air force infrastructure in Mali, undermining FAMa's biggest strategic advantage. Drone training from FLA is beginning to bear fruit in JNIM. They can already import drones through Libya so developing the knowledge base is the last big step.

[Ahmed Saylici @Adal_empire_]

Flashback to 2009,Abdul Qadir Mumin, now the suspected overall leader of ISIS, appears on stage as an Al-Shabaab member. The footage was taken after the Ethiopian troops defeat/withdrew from Mogadishu. He is seen alongside Al-Shabaab spokesman Ali Rage Dheere.

[Hamrawi @rmconsultantgrp]

What to watch in the coming days if this movement signals a wider offensive, expect #Puntland mobilization across other fronts particularly #Galgala, Ceelaayo–Milxo and possibly #AfUrur. Coordinated movement across these axes would indicate the #AlMadow offensive is underway.

[Hamrawi @rmconsultantgrp]

Initial reports from #AlMadow indicate major #Puntland force movements near #Hawasha_Wale following U.S. airstrikes last night. It remains unclear if this signals the long-awaited offensive against #AS. Movement toward #Ragaad would be a key indicator of a new phase of fighting.

[Hamrawi @rmconsultantgrp]

Initial reports from #AlMadow indicate major #Puntland force movements near #Hawasha_Wale following U.S. airstrikes last night. It remains unclear if this signals the long-awaited offensive against #AS. Movement toward #Ragaad would be a key indicator of a new phase of fighting.

[Harooon @Harooon148283]

إلى الآن لم افهم سبب زعل بعض العرب من المهاجرين ، ولماذا يهتمون إذا البلدان الغربية صارت خراب ، مع أن الغرب دمر بلدانا كثيرة من بينهم دول عربية

[Ahmed Saylici @Adal_empire_]

This presents a clear opening for AS, and any immediate advance toward Baidoa would spell disaster for the federal army

[Ahmed Saylici @Adal_empire_]

This is the same trap AS has set for every administration, turn a quick strike into a forever war for foreign troops and Federal soldiers. Hassan Sheikh is now repeating that history in real time

[Dilawar Karwan @RashmanTheHorse]

This is fascinating. Implications:
1. AQ is establishing militant networks in Sudan
2. These networks include Sudanese veterans of JNIM
3. AQ is restoring its decades old logistical networks between Sudan and the Sahel
4. These networks have now gone kinetic
5. JNIM is doing knowledge transfer to Sudanese Islamist militants.

Some questions:
1. Where does Katiba al Bara bin Malik fit in here?
2. Is Abu Hudhayfah al Sudani aware of this? Is he involved?
3. Is AQ trying to preempt Dawla?

[War Noir @war_noir]

#Sudan 🇸🇩: Sudanese Armed Forces conducted a military training camp for sniper trainees.

Some of the fighters can be seen with 12.7x108mm “HSARI LR2” / “MIC Khawad-1” bullpup anti-materiel sniper rifles.

[War Noir @war_noir]

#Somalia 🇸🇴: Al-Shabaab (Al-Qaeda) ambushed and killed Somali Army members in Goof Gaduud, Bay Region.

As a result militants captured a notable Chinese Type 56 rifle with Ethiopian GAFAT-1 furnitures and a standard Type 56-1 rifle.

[War Noir @war_noir]

#Somalia 🇸🇴: Al-Shabaab (Al-Qaeda) ambushed Somali Forces and killed several soldiers in Teedaan, Hiran Region.

Militants were armed with #Iran-made 🇮🇷 “Sageg” RPG Launcher, #China-made 🇨🇳 DZP1C-40 / Type 69-1 rockets, Type 80 machine guns and Type 56-1 / 56-2 assault rifles.

[Brant @BrantPhilip_]

JNIM took temporary control of the town of Sifarasso yesterday in southwest Burkina Faso near the Malian border.

[Cirka News @CirkaNews]

#UPDATE: Al-Shabaab Releases Photos Claiming Control of Strategic Teedaan

Al-Shabaab has released photographs claiming its fighters are in full control of the strategic town of Teedaan after reportedly capturing Suulaay, Xasan Raqay, and Teedaan during a rapid offensive in South #Somalia’s Hiiraan region.

Multiple independent local and regional sources said #Mogadishu government forces withdrew after heavy fighting. The images appear to show Al-Shabaab fighters inside Teedaan, though they have not been independently verified.

The reported loss of the three towns marks another setback for Mogadishu forces and underscores the group’s ability to seize strategically important territory in South Somalia.

[War Noir @war_noir]

#Somalia 🇸🇴: Al-Shabaab (Al-Qaeda) has ambushed and killed Somali Army soldiers in Lower Shabelle.

As a result militants captured an East German MPi-KM-72 rifle, four Chinese Type 56-1 rifles, mags / ammo and misc materials.

[Hamrawi @rmconsultantgrp]

#AS has released initial photos from yesterday's assault on the #SNA outpost in #Tedan village. While the government says it repelled the attack and still controls the village, #AS claims the images prove its presence there, presenting a conflicting account of the battle.

[Hamrawi @rmconsultantgrp]

#AS published an aftermath video of its recent assault on the
#SNA in the Lower Shabelle region. The group also claimed gains today in #Tedan vilage #Hiran, stating that after nearly 48 hours of fighting, it captured the village following an #SVBIED attack on an #SNA camp.

[Rashid Abdi @RAbdiAnalyst]

Teedan, a town in Hiraan Region, central Somalia, falls to Al-Shabaab per local media.

Al-Shabaab has been busy in recent days trying to pre-empt a planned major counteroffensive operation by government.

President Hassan Sheikh is said to be planning to deploy to the fronts in the coming days in a fresh bid "to defeat the Khawarij."

[War Noir @war_noir]

#Somalia 🇸🇴: Al-Shabaab (subgroup of Al-Qaeda) ambushed and killed several Somali Army soldiers in Lower Shabelle.

The militants were apparently armed with numerous common #China-made 🇨🇳 Type 56-1 assault rifles.

[Ahmed Saylici @Adal_empire_]

Al-Shabaab long exploited dawn attacks, calibrating timing to khat shipment volumes reaching frontline garrisons. Larger deliveries signaled higher strike probability. U.S. forces in Djibouti identified the pattern and effectively neutralized the tactic.

[Baidoa Online @BaidoaOnline]

#ALERT: Al-Shabaab Claims Capture of Teedaan, One of Hiraan’s Most Strategic Towns

Al-Shabaab militants have claimed to have seized control of Teedaan, a strategically located area in Somalia’s central Hiraan region, following hours of fierce fighting with Somali government forces and allied local fighters.

Reports from the area said the clashes began on Sunday morning and continued into the late afternoon, involving heavy weapons and sustained exchanges of gunfire.

Teedaan had reportedly served as one of the Somali National Army’s most important defensive positions in eastern Hiraan and as a frontline base for operations against Al-Shabaab.

In a statement released by its military command, the Al-Qaeda-linked group said its fighters had taken complete control of the settlement following battles that occurred on Saturday and Sunday.

Al-Shabaab also claimed that 100 government soldiers and allied fighters were killed or wounded during the operation. The casualty figures could not be independently verified, and the Somali government had not issued an official response confirming the loss of Teedaan or the number of casualties by the time of publication.

There was also no independently verified information regarding casualties suffered by Al-Shabaab during the fighting.

Strategic importance of Teedaan

Teedaan is a rural settlement administered under the Maxaas district and situated in eastern Hiraan, an area that has become one of the most contested fronts in Somalia’s campaign against Al-Shabaab.

Although Teedaan is not a major urban centre, its strategic importance comes from its location along a network of rural roads and military movement corridors connecting several government and militant positions across central Somalia.

The area provides access toward Maxaas and other government-held settlements in eastern Hiraan while also linking routes leading westward toward the regional capital, Beledweyne. Forces positioned in Teedaan can potentially monitor or disrupt the movement of troops, military supplies and civilian vehicles travelling between government positions in the region.

Its location also places it within the wider operational corridor connecting Hiraan with northern and eastern parts of Middle Shabelle.

Control of Teedaan could therefore give Al-Shabaab greater freedom to move fighters and equipment between its positions in eastern Hiraan and areas approaching Adan Yabaal and other contested locations in Middle Shabelle.

Teedaan’s position may also provide access to routes extending toward Galgaduud and other parts of central Somalia. This makes the settlement valuable not only as a defensive base but also as a potential staging point for operations across several regional fronts.

The reported capture of Teedaan, if independently confirmed, would represent a significant setback for Somali government forces and allied Ma’awisley community fighters operating in Hiraan.

Hiraan was the starting point of the major government-backed uprising against Al-Shabaab in 2022. Somali forces and local fighters subsequently captured dozens of settlements before expanding the campaign into Middle Shabelle and Galgaduud.

However, Al-Shabaab has since regrouped and launched counteroffensives aimed at retaking rural settlements, military bases and strategic transport corridors across Hiraan and Middle Shabelle. Independent assessments have reported that the group recovered several locations previously lost during the initial government campaign.

Control of rural settlements in central Somalia frequently changes following major clashes, and claims issued by the opposing sides are often difficult to verify because of disrupted communications and limited independent access to frontline locations.