Random Thoughts

Records Editor, Ministry of Truth

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@avidseries Demographics?

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@StoneColdDRich @elonmusk @cremieuxrecueil Maybe importing and breeding many pit bulls to overwhelm other breeds

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@DrEliDavid Nobody ask why Moroccans would rather live in Spain inside Morocco

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@3ddy0x @AngelaBelcamino if it already does it, why dont they just add them to the legislation? what happens when they no longer do it? then the law must be amended?

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@ElenaPagano9823 So your town is mostly black and you don't see this behavior?

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@ElenaPagano9823 @AmiriKing @EdsrAh Glad your friends don't engage in this behavior in your "very diverse" (mostly non-black) town.

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@lacho_ai_ @mattvanswol Nothing. Just keep letting violent offenders back on the street. I can't think of any other solution.

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@TNG512 Thanks for sharing. I won't be replying anymore, but thanks for the good convo.

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

I don't want to put too much stock in one study, but assuming this is true, then I'd just revise my response to asian>hispanic>white>black. Point being that there are differences in crime rates (I'd argue propensity also) across groups. Changing the demographics of the country will have consequences that mirror the shift in demographics--something we should be careful about doing.

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

Agreed on all points. For better or worse, there are differences in crime rates across racial groups. Back to the conceptual point I wanted to make in the original post: when whites become a minority, then crime rates in the newly non-white areas will converge to whatever rate of the demographic groups replacing them. I personally would want to raise a family in the place with as little crime as I can afford--likely asian, white, hispanic, then black, by proportion.

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@TNG512 Thanks for sharing

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@TNG512 You were right, it looks like a ~33% increase in homicide rate to the naked eye. Now it is just a matter of seeing who is willing to put up with a 33% increase in homicide and call that a small increase.

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@TNG512 Re: 2, Isn't it obvious in the data? Proportion white is probably the strongest predictor of murder rates across states. It's so obvious that we don't deny it anymore, we just try to explain it away (poverty, racism, etc.)

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

Three things to note:
1. the increase looks small because of the y-axis. It is actually not that small.
2. second+ gen immigrants tend to have higher crime rates than first gen. Meaning this simulation is the best case and short term scenario.
3. this (shoddy) simulation was an attempt to highlight a conceptual point not generate real estimates.

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@IamSean90 https://t.co/PPygwwOncd

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

Does immigration reduce crime? Nationwide, maybe yes, but it will increase crime in *your* community. A thread on this paradox:

Research suggests that immigrants are less criminal than native-born Americans. This *could be true*. But we don’t know because of at least two issues. First, the offending rates for immigrants are notoriously difficult to establish—especially for undocumented immigrants. The second and perhaps more nefarious reason is that research on this topic often hides behind a compositional fallacy. This fallacy creates spurious findings because of Simpson’s paradox.

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@awowamax @Nicholas_S21 @Prowl8413 Economy would BOOOOM

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@awowamax @Nicholas_S21 @Prowl8413 Those are reason to hit blue, yes. But I’m simply pointing out the absurdity of lumping them in with elderly and sub 85 iq to convince people that the whole group should be saved from their folly. It’s literally saying “save the weak” or “do not save the weak”

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@Nicholas_S21 @awowamax @Prowl8413 The economy would BOOM once the elderly and retarded are culled. I’m for red.

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@jamespoop82 @justmhumphries @grok @JennaWDavis @PeterSweden7 @elon We use extra scrutiny because academia has become a left-wing enterprise

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

@shakoistsLog Yes. I wrote about this a while ago. It’s a real problem.
https://t.co/eBHcqBOZB6

[Random Thoughts @rndm_thtz]

Why does this matter? Just because immigrants commit less crime than “native-born” Americans does not mean that you can replace your neighbors with a random sample of immigrants and reduce your particular neighborhood’s crime rate. You’ll notice that the distribution below created from a group-proportion-representative simulation of real crime rates is positively skewed, where most groups are below the mean. So yes, immigrants commit less crime than your “average” American. But the “average” American is not a monolith. This means that more documented immigrants might decrease the overall crime rate but will increase crime in most neighborhoods/communities (Simpson’s paradox).