A

[Garett Jones @GarettJones]

Be like Robert Hall:

Write papers that are overwhelmingly correct and deeply insightful, but which also make the smartest people around you think you're on drugs.

[A @RoaminginX]

@ArmandDoma see quoted post. in any case, i found this analysis to be measured and insightful:

https://t.co/kO5Mz0ZLvx

[Ali Shihabi علي الشهابي @aliShihabi]

People wonder why Saudi Arabia cannot stop every missile from penetrating its defenses. Yet Israel, with a tiny territory compared with the Kingdom and some of the most advanced missile defenses in the world, still needed American forces to help intercept incoming missiles. Even then, some got through. Expecting a country the size of Saudi Arabia to intercept every missile is simply unrealistic. No defense can guarantee complete protection.

[A @RoaminginX]

@antonioregalado why nobel committee doesn’t just acknowledge them at least?

[A @RoaminginX]

@antonioregalado ridiculous. the rule is ridiculous. now more and more breakthroughs are done by teams, so theyll pick favorites i guess

[Sholto Douglas @_sholtodouglas]

these are fun to think about, a nice mountain to climb

[A @RoaminginX]

@robinhanson @Isegoria that’s what you do? how do you read so much? or is it something you used to naturally?

[A @RoaminginX]

@OliviaHelenS what are those well-resourced groups?

[Ben Moll @ben_moll]

Great episode on the coming AI capabilities explosion. Very much worth listening to, especially for my economist friends.

The three guests differ on timelines (nice to see some belief heterogeneity!) but all are very bullish. Examples:
- 10x productivity uplift for AI researchers in 2 years
- AI superhuman in all computer work in 5-10 years (@johnschulman2 3-4 years!)

Here is the thing though: You can fully believe
1. that AI capabilities will explode like in these predictions (I do)
2. that AI is potentially bigger than the industrial revolution (I do)
3. but that GDP growth in 10-15 years will be "only" 4-5%, or less for that matter (to be clear, 4-5% would be completely transformative)

@Noahpinion also reminds me of this graph which shows growth forecasts by expert background https://t.co/OJ67IxkGVM

[Archie Hall @ArchieHall]

AIs cracking short-term superforecasting is such an important (and, still, under-discussed) trend.

Via a new piece from @nikostro https://t.co/EuVP7FyfbD

[A @RoaminginX]

@brianchau57 @lumpenspace honestly, i don’t think eas are even totally bad, they have some good ideas.

but i wouldn’t dismiss it at all that they’re at it again with their savior complex.

[A @RoaminginX]

@brianchau57 @lumpenspace you’re telling me eas would abuse their power and lie to achieve their goals for the greater good? im shocked just as i was shocked when i knew of sbf altruistic funds allocation.

[A @RoaminginX]

@akarlin @JimDMiller how many of lesswrong types are East Asians? how about astral codex? I think not that many. rats need to figure out why, it will be a good lead.

[roon @tszzl]

I quote tweeted Evan a few days ago agreeing but deleted it because I don’t like the false precision of the doom numbers

- i claim there is a quite low but real chance of human extinction from machine intelligence
- no matter how low it is in absolute terms, it is much higher on the orders of magnitude scale than any other human or nonhuman activity, and must be taken with grave seriousness by governments and ai companies across the world, as possibly the only matter of importance today
- it can and will be mitigated if the right research is done and proper precautions are taken and we are not racing at absurd speeds
- better models will help solve alignment - we are not at the point where things are existentially dangerous, and probably won't be for some time. we should not be upset about the creation of Astra Fable or ++ versions, which are tremendous achievements of humanity, and will be used for enormous good across the board including for fundamental alignment generalization and mechinterp research
- my number / "very low" estimate obviously changes based on how much of humanity’s resources are devoted to alignment, control, coordination and how responsible i expect various parties to be and how many warning shots i expect us to get
- the core IABED argument about risks mostly relies on alignment being much harder than capabilities research, especially where it concerns black box optimizers. i suspect neural nets will turn out to be less black boxy than we thought, especially with the help of modern agents doing research
- crying bloody murder and signaling for international coordination are useful things to do for now to directionally slow down, while i really don't want butlerian jihad

- i think that, despite the mood these few days, and the "ban superintelligence act", i still find the likelihood of achieving international coordination to stop ai progress incredibly low. this has not worked even for weapons or technologies at a far lower level of importance and economic value. it seems more likely we can have something like international safety standards and scientific coalitions, and especially seems possible to have the US-China "pacing the frontier" agreement to slow down on the margin. we shouldn't die from embarrassing failures like "shitty RL envs that encourage deception"

[A @RoaminginX]

@gwern i think you’re right. one Q: what are the plausible approaches to making an ai that’s intelligent & “human”?

are they fundamentally diff from what we’re doing now (transformers)? do they require major breakthroughs in areas like neuroscience?

& achievable on say, decades?

[A @RoaminginX]

@gwern genuinely asking, should it matter whether our descendants human intelligence or machine? assuming people in the ai space tends towards transhumanism. then shouldn’t we maximize living humans chances of survival?

[A @RoaminginX]

@tszzl should it matter whether our descendants human intelligence or machine? assuming people in the ai space tends towards transhumanism. then shouldn’t we maximize living humans chances of survival?

[A @RoaminginX]

@ArthurB @tszzl would it really work? is the current technology is even good at preservation?

[roon @tszzl]

like all other technologies your equivalent agent swarm will cost a buck fifty in like a year. all this stuff will mean an unprecedented Enlightenment no matter the costs today

[Alex Tabarrok @ATabarrok]

Some people will snear and say the painting isn't very good. These people are idiots.

[A @RoaminginX]

@GeneSmi96946389 what do you mean?