Robert B Lee

Scientist, entrepreneur, trader, and investor. I work at the intersection of technology and human impact. Focuses in AI, tech, equities, and real estate.

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

@PropFirmMedia @Topstep @AskTopstep @MichaelPatak I also received this ban today as well. I do use their projectX api to copy trade across other props but I am taking the same trade...

[Thomas Braziel @Bkclaims]

I like Nic and generally agree with a lot of his work, but I think he's using the wrong framework here. This isn't a CCC bond. It's a distressed special situations security.

I've spent the better part of two decades in distressed credit and roughly the last 12 years buying distressed crypto. I've competed with or worked alongside many of the largest distressed investors. When I ask myself who the marginal buyer of STRC is today, it isn't a traditional high-yield fund.

It's an opportunistic credit fund. Those funds don't wake up looking for 15% returns. They generally need 30%+ IRRs before they commit capital to something this uncertain.

Today you can buy:

• Government refund claims targeting 10-15% IRRs.

• Distressed crypto claims with recoveries denominated in dollars and often substantial collateral protection for 20-25%+ IRRs.

STRC is riskier than both. You're subordinated. There are essentially no meaningful lender protections. The dividend is non-cumulative. The collateral is one volatile asset. There is negative convexity.

And unlike a traditional distressed loan, you don't control the collateral or have meaningful enforcement rights. This isn't lending against Bitcoin.

It's taking directional Bitcoin exposure through a structurally weak preferred security.

There's an important distinction people miss.

Common shareholders have a fiduciary relationship with management. Creditors don't. Management's job is to obtain the cheapest possible financing for shareholders - not to create an attractive security for creditors.

To Strategy's credit, they did exactly that. They issued extraordinarily issuer-friendly paper because the market let them. Good for them!

But once that paper leaves the hands of income-oriented crypto investors, who is the next buyer? That's the question. I think it's an opportunistic distressed investor. And that buyer isn't showing up for a 15-20% required return. They're looking for something closer to a 30%+ IRR.

At an 11.5% coupon, that implies a price of roughly $38.33 (11.5 ÷ 30%), versus about $76.67 for a 15% yield and $57.50 for a 20% yield. Maybe 30% isn't exactly the right number. Maybe it's 35%. Maybe it's 40%. But I think anchoring this off CCC spreads misses who the actual marginal buyer is.

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

@edgeful IB

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

@camelfinance @camelfinance for someone who is over-allocated from entering the space in 2018 - 2020 into ETH/BTC relative to entire portfolio, would you recommend selling into the 80-85k top and paying the tax man? Idea here having more cash to deploy into a more balanced portfolio.

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

@camelfinance @TroyFitzpatric 2% risk. Can't lose. Won't get rich overnight, won't go broke. It's a system for life. My only regret is not finding @camelfinance 's channel sooner and understanding the power of risk management. It IS the edge. Good strategy just a multiplier

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

We're seeing an incredible setup come for $BTCUSDT which should result at minimum in some counter trend bounce to challenge the swing stops of 100k and 120k shorts. Tight invalidation below the swing low + trend line once we get a daily close above the trend breakout.

[Saganism @Saganismm]

Carl Sagan’s prediction about America, made 31 years ago.

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

$TLT long term (and $TMF on daily cycle swings) play is lining up...

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

Currently eyeing a breakout on $COIN for a potential swing trade.

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

A textbook breakout on $HUT. Eyeing position ATH at $82 for price target.

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

Major trend $BTCUSDT is battling here... could be setting up for a nice swing position

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

@finance_camel Blasting off this week & topping early Jan fits into your hypothesis of max pain. We should look to see if gold fails to put in a lower high & rolls over to weekly cycle & 4 year cycle lows. Gold could provide leading support to that theory

https://t.co/xmkv1mwQxo

[Camel Finance YT ⚡️ @camelfinance]

Update on the gold 90 day offset.

If this is a thing, bitcoin should blast off this week:

[Camel Finance YT ⚡️ @camelfinance]

Update on the gold 90 day offset.

If this is a thing, bitcoin should blast off this week:

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

Not a fan of the metals after violating this trend. Expect a counter trend return to fill gap on $GDX at least. I will start offloading most of my positions there in /GC and $GDX and $SILJ. Will look to potentially play a bounce off the lower trendline if possible.

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

We could be seeing this scenario play out as we speak with $BTCUSDT. Lets see how BTC responds to this trend line being broken.

https://t.co/s8n05CSzrB

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

On the Lower Time Frame (LTF) $BTCUSDT, I'm looking for a potential break and retest of this downtrend back into the 117k larger support/resistance. This could also potentially spark a much larger run on short liquidity above.

https://t.co/SQotoX5DOQ

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

The only short setups I'm interested in on $BTCUSDT on the Lower Time Frame (LTF). It would involve rejections along the trendline we have been developing since ATH.

These short scenarios would help lead us to the larger weekly cycle low entry.

https://t.co/s8n05CT7h9

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

On the Lower Time Frame (LTF) $BTCUSDT, I'm looking for a potential break and retest of this downtrend back into the 117k larger support/resistance. This could also potentially spark a much larger run on short liquidity above.

https://t.co/SQotoX5DOQ

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

On the Lower Time Frame (LTF) $BTCUSDT, I'm looking for a potential break and retest of this downtrend back into the 117k larger support/resistance. This could also potentially spark a much larger run on short liquidity above.

https://t.co/SQotoX5DOQ

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

On the Higher Time Frame $BTCUSDT, I'm looking for potential sweeps to 97k which could complete a second drive lower driving the CMC fear index into the extreme fear zone. This would be an excellent entry with a defined stop loss below the lower low into a weekly cycle low.

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

On the Higher Time Frame $BTCUSDT, I'm looking for potential sweeps to 97k which could complete a second drive lower driving the CMC fear index into the extreme fear zone. This would be an excellent entry with a defined stop loss below the lower low into a weekly cycle low.

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

While everyone and their dog was parroting M2 <insert your number> day offset, what about the GOLD 90 day offset?

If $BTCUSDT follows $GOLD on a 90 day lag, this is what we can expect @finance_camel

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

7/ But that belief is factually false. The market creates new opportunities constantly—you just need to be ready to take them.
Trust your ability to find the next trade. That confidence is what separates profitable traders from bag holders.

[Robert B Lee @robert_b_lee]

Why Traders Refuse to Take Profits (And How to Fix It)
1/ The core issue: We need a clear exit signal and we must stick to it. Without one, emotions take over and we watch gains evaporate.