Roberto Robatto

Economist working on banking, financial regulation, and monetary economics. Views expressed here are my own

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

A thread on my paper on macroprudential (accounting) rules and monetary policy, out on the RFS! We study how the valuation of banks' security holdings affect banks' response to monetary policy. Main focus is lending, but we also study security trading https://t.co/uC3mnopeES

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

Question for (New Keynesian) economists: if there is a permanent increase in TFP growth in a simple NK model, does employment drop on impact? And what's the optimal monetary policy response?

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

@a_auclert What is the role of gold imports in the data figure? Some GDP forecasts like the Atlanta Fed one got some unusual numbers before adjusting for gold, a few weeks ago. But I haven't seen any discussion of how the gold imports have affected the final number

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

WSJ says that GDP dropped because businesses stocked up on imports. This does not make much sense to me, as inventories should increase if businesses are, well, increasing their inventories. Also, does anybody know what the impact of gold imports is?

https://t.co/96lS0cu7Vx

[SSRN @SSRN]

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Ph.D. Summer #Internship Opportunities at the Atlanta Fed

Accepting applications here: https://t.co/hK2QJvxnbA

Full details here: https://t.co/3gXAu1TW4K

#AcademicTwitter #HigherEducation #EconTwitter

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

We have a trade deficit because foreigners send us more goods and services than we send them. Our trade deficit simply means that foreigners are working more to serve us than we are working to serve them. https://t.co/loT4EkNwbl

[Atlanta Fed @AtlantaFed]

The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold, is -1.4%. After this morning’s construction spending report from the @uscensusbureau and incorporation of the available March data into the models’ dynamic factor model, including manufacturing data from the Institute for Supply Management (@ism) and measures of consumer attitudes from two surveys, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s forecasts of first-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth declined from 1.5% to 0.4%.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 3.

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

Ths is pretty disturbing https://t.co/e6D9tmChAw

[Atlanta Fed @AtlantaFed]

Our recent GDPNow updates stirred up a lot of conversation about the model’s subcomponents, including a trade deficit spurred on by an increase in nonmonetary gold imports. In an article and the thread below, Pat Higgins, creator of the GDPNow model, provides additional insight with a “gold adjusted” model and accounting for today’s (March 7) labor market report.
1/5

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

@josiahstevenson Probably on 3/17: https://t.co/OPEIp7p4Xx
Retail sales + inventories, 3/17/2025, 10:00 AM

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

Is GDP really going to contract 2.8% as forecasted by the Atlanta Fed? Most likely, not. The -2.8% forecast is driven by a surge in imports: +23%. Most of the increase is driven by industrial supplies and materials (from today's BEA report). That is, firms are piling up inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Inventories count as investments in the computation of GDP. The GDP forecast misses this likely large spike in inventories, as the tool likely predicts inventories based on past data, and inventories are typically a stable component of GDP. https://t.co/Ivgph8tsap

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

GDP now is an amazing forecasting tools, but like all forecasting tools that depend on past data, it needs to be interpreted with caution during unusual times like these days.

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

Looks great! I had not checked yesterday, but Apple went up 3% yesterday, and almost 4% today. For Apple, AI affects mostly investments, so cheaper AI means a lot of savings (and maybe being able to develop new products, as the WSJ emphasizes today). The stock market can add and subtract, as @JohnHCochrane noted, and it seems you use that in your paper. A simple and powerful approach, looks great!

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

I understand why a major breakthrough in AI that does not require Nvidia chips is bad for Nvidia. But shouldn't it be good news for all other companies, especially tech ones? After all, the cost of AI is going down

[Ramesh Ponnuru @RameshPonnuru]

Two presidents strengthen the case for curtailing the pardon power in one day.

[Anna Stansbury @annastansbury]

📢New WP!📢 The Class Gap in Career Progression: Evidence from US Academia, w/ Kyra Rodriguez

Class is rarely a focus of research or DEI in elite US occupations.

Evidence suggests it should be: we find a large class gap in at least one occupation - tenure-track academia...🧵

[Pete Schroeder @peteschroeder]

Sneaky massive news out of the Fed today -- they're going to make stress test models and scenarios open to public comment in response to "evolving legal landscape: (i.e. post-Chevron world): https://t.co/UJsmO5TNCA

[Florian Ederer @florianederer]

Academics from poorer socio-economic backgrounds are more likely to
- not publish
- have outstanding publication records
- introduce more novel scientific concepts
- less likely to receive recognition, as measured by citations, Nobel Prize nominations, and awards.

[Bank Policy Institute @bankpolicy]

BPI's new note shows how a bank can increase its profitability through an SRT while reducing risk exposure. The economics work because the reduction in capital costs exceeds the cost of credit protection: https://t.co/CCoQm6ln1f

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

@robin_j_brooks Why would it inflate the value of Italian banks? (And why would that be large enough to have a first-order effect?) That's the part I do not understand

[Roberto Robatto @RobertoRobatto]

Of all the arguments I am heard to rethink the ECB approach, this seems weak and without much empirical support. If Unicredit is a well-run bank, let it expand and buy others. What does this have to do with ECB (monetary) policy?

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

The UniCredit bid for Commerzbank is a symptom of the upside down world the Euro zone has become. Germany allows the ECB to cap Italian yields. That indirectly inflates Italy’s financial system, making this bid happen. Germany plays chess against itself… https://t.co/zRIhP2wWN8