Roberto Simon

geopolitical risk, latam, jazz. non-resident fellow @stimson, ex @folha & @AmerQuarterly columnist. author of “brazil against democracy”. my own opinions.

[Roberto Simon @robertosimon]

Meanwhile, on LinkedIn…

[Roberto Simon @robertosimon]

A noção de q Trump havia se tornado “pragmático” e não interviria nas eleições na Colombia e Brasil voou pela janela nos últimos poucos dias. Estamos diante do intervencionismo explícito q vimos na Argentina e Honduras (além de Hungria)

[ÚltimaHoraCaracol @UltimaHoraCR]

#ATENCIÓN | El presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, expresó su "respaldo total" al candidato presidencial Abelardo de la Espriella.

El mandatario aseguró que los resultados de la segunda vuelta presidencial son "cruciales para el futuro de Colombia y su relación con los Estados Unidos".

Vía @EddyMosquera0

https://t.co/v2vIVVHFXe

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Abelardo de la Espriella is the favorite, but the runoff may be closer than the market believes. You cannot simply add the right’s votes together and assume they’ll all support him—the 2022 runoff, which Petro won despite having the same first-round vote share as Cepeda (40%), is a cautionary tale.

To win this race, De la Espriella will have to do more than vilify Petro and Cepeda. He will have to convince more moderate Colombians, including many who lean conservative, that he is more than a silver-tongued lawyer who represented drug traffickers and Nicolás Maduro’s alleged bag man. He must also strike a balancing act—embracing Alvaro Uribe’s endorsement without becoming the uribista candidate, given how polarizing the former president is. That will be harder than it sounds.

Of the three remaining Latin American elections this year, including Brazil and Peru, I believe Colombia is the most important. Two vastly different candidates, each of whom would have considerable power to implement their agendas, in a country facing huge security, fiscal and economic challenges. Whoever wins this vote will define the course of Colombia for the next 10 to 15 years.

Read more REACTIONS to last night, including the great Laura Lizarazo, Ernesto Revilla and @SergioGuzmanE here:

https://t.co/ygYfRU2SLL

[Ishaan Tharoor @ishaantharoor]

This is literally a scene in Succession

[Roberto Simon @robertosimon]

What’s next? No clue. Maybe nothing. Or maybe sanctions, FinCEN actions against Brazilian FinTech and other FIs, attacks against Pix, all of the above. Who knows.

[Roberto Simon @robertosimon]

This was highly expected, but it is still worth saying: the FTO designation will not materially change tools to fight crime, but it will increase uncertainty (therefore, risks and costs) for companies operating in Brazil, particularly financial institutions…

[Secretary Marco Rubio @SecRubio]

Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho are two of the most violent criminal organizations in Brazil. Their reach extends throughout our region and into our country. 

Today, I designated these organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists. 

The Trump Administration will continue using every available tool to protect our national security interests and deny funding and resources to narco-terrorists.

https://t.co/x3cPYjelwZ

[Roberto Simon @robertosimon]

And the BR gov is correctly seeing the designation, announced after Flavio Bolsonaro met Trump, as direct interference on its electoral process.

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Bolivia’s crisis is about more than Evo Morales — it’s about the difference between Paz the candidate and Paz the president, plus deeper changes in Bolivian politics, writes the always astute Gabriela Keseberg for AQ

https://t.co/rFHyuQtJor

[John Cassidy @JohnCassidy]

Indeed

[Benjamin Gedan @benjamingedan]

The “nueva marea rosa” was an illusion—and so is the supposed structural move to the right. Antiestablishmentarianism remains the best predictor of political outcomes in Latin America, and rising energy and food prices, plus a likely strong El Niño, may supercharge that trend.

[Roberto Simon @robertosimon]

Dear young IR scholars, here's a thesis idea for you: "Heavy Metal as Soft Power at the End of the Cold War."

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Metallica performs “Enter Sandman” in Moscow in 1991, drawing an estimated 1.6 million attendees.

It’s considered one of the best performances of all time.

[Roberto Simon @robertosimon]

Produtora Goup. Esse roterista do Brasil não perde uma…

[Roberto Simon @robertosimon]

Coloquei uma vírgula a mais…

[Roberto Simon @robertosimon]

Que livro importante, do @FelipePLoureiro. Não vejo a hora de ler.

[Guilherme Caetano @guiicaetano]

Livro expõe participação de empresas americanas e Fiesp no financiamento da repressão na ditadura
👇👇👇
https://t.co/OAEasUg4H1

[Variety @Variety]

Paulinho da Costa poses with the Brazilian flag during his Hollywood Walk of Fame ceremony.

[Roberto Simon @robertosimon]

Ao vivo

[Fundação FHC @fundacaofhc]

Neste 13 de maio, data que marca a abolição da escravatura no Brasil, revisitamos uma fala da filósofa e escritora @SueliCarneiro no programa “Vamos Sair da Crise”, exibido pela @tvgazetaoficial de São Paulo e apresentado pelo jornalista Alexandre Machado, entre o fim dos anos 1980 e início dos 1990.

Na ocasião — também um 13 de maio, em 1991 — Sueli destaca a ressignificação da data pelo movimento negro no país: “O 13 de maio é uma data de denúncia do racismo, contrapondo a historiografia oficial que tenta escamotear a questão racial no Brasil. Não há nada a comemorar, mas muito a protestar, denunciar e organizar a população negra na defesa de seus direitos de cidadania e de sua integração real na sociedade brasileira.”

Este vídeo faz parte do projeto “Cenas da Redemocratização”, da Fundação FHC, que reúne mais de 160 horas de registros históricos do programa “Vamos Sair da Crise”.

No site da Fundação FHC, estão disponíveis nove minidocumentários que oferecem uma visão panorâmica da série, organizados em torno dos temas centrais da transição democrática e de seus personagens-chave. Acesse: https://t.co/hWkZKcMGuB

[Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan]

Inequality in Brazil and China

[Historic Vids @historyinmemes]

25 years ago today, the Sopranos gave us Pine Barrens, the greatest episode in TV history

[Roberto Simon @robertosimon]

Rigor científico na luta contra o Alzheimer (tuíte de marido orgulhoso) 👇