Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸

Senior politics editor @HuffPost. Dad. Massachusetts native, Maryland Terrapin. Pitch me, book me: [email protected].

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

HuffPost is hiring two politics reporters, reporting to yours truly.

One to cover the midterms and the 2028 presidential race: https://t.co/k4abxORg7K

One to cover conservatives: https://t.co/AAgvT7KD7C

Details in the job listings.

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

Not-so-hidden subtext here: The major AI super PACs have been fairly narrowly focused on regulations on the technology, not on data center construction. They spent against Alex Bores, but not against Will Lawrence.

[Alex Isenstadt @axiosalex]

NEWS: The Senate GOP campaign arm has sent a memo warning AI companies that backlash to data centers could cost them a critical Senate seat — and turn the industry politically radioactive nationwide

“politicians across the country will take notice”

https://t.co/y6NLOYrHim

[Burgess Everett @burgessev]

New - Bernie Sanders has $22 million in his campaign account. Abdul El-Sayed needs all the help he can get in Michigan with SLF/AIPAC/Rogers money.

I asked him if he would consider transferring some of that money to the DSCC (unlimited transfer allowed). He didn't rule it out

“I’m going to do my best in every way to see that he’s elected to the US Senate,” Sanders told Semafor. “We’re going to do everything we can.”

A Democratic strategist said that if Sanders wants to show he can win tough elections, “he needs to put his money where his mouth is and invest the millions he has sitting in the bank account in winning Michigan"

https://t.co/sx5rkkfnei

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

The missing line on this chart is the money GOP groups spent boosting Hong — money Crowley only matched in the final week.

[AdImpact Politics @AdImpact_Pol]

David Crowley won the #WIGov Democratic primary last Tuesday.

After initially suspending his campaign, Crowley jumped back into the race and saw a surge in ad support during the final weeks of the contest.

In the last two weeks of the primary, he saw $4.3M in ad support.

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

New: How Thanksgiving Ended Francesca Hong’s Hopes

Her struggle to explain/end the rolling Thanksgiving controversy, along with the GOP's open rooting for her candidacy, was key in convincing the college-educated voter-pundits she couldn't win the GE.

https://t.co/CyA8sHfXq6

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

GOP groups spent about $5 million backing her. An underrated part of Crowley's comeback? It was only in the final week that he was able to match the GOP's TV spend.

https://t.co/CyA8sHfXq6

[Meryl Kornfield @MerylKornfield]

Trump and his aides repeatedly say DC crime has dropped by 88 or 92%.

When WaPo asked the WH to explain the numbers, they said they were referring to just one crime: arson. (There was one arson this year and four last year, which still doesn’t add up.)

https://t.co/AUdd5LTUjU

[Steven Shepard @SteveShepard_]

If you think these polls were "wrong," it's a you problem: You are asking polling to do something -- predict late-breaking primaries -- it isn't supposed to do.

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

In endorsement terms, this was a battle between the "Fight Club" senators -- Warren, Sanders, CVH, Murphy -- and a "Mod Squad" of Coons, Cortez Masto, Slotkin. Buttigieg also backed Craig.

Progressives come out on top here.

[Jennifer Bendery @jbendery]

BREAKING: Progressive Lt. Gov Peggy Flanagan wins the Democratic primary in Minnesota's Senate race, defeating moderate Rep. Angie Craig and overcoming an avalanche of outside spending against her https://t.co/uvglaWh63i

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

@theodoricmeyer Is 17 years older "significantly older?" I don't feel generational change was really the story there.

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

With his victory over Larson, Bronin is the first non-DSA member Democrat who is to knock off an incumbent significantly older than them this cycle.

W for Buttigieg, who endorsed.

Very foreboding result for Ed Markey ahead of the MA Senate primary next month.

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Decision Desk HQ projects Luke Bronin wins the CT US House 1 Democratic Primary

#DecisionMade: 9:14 PM EDT

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

Also worth noting: Larson is/was a progressive, but Bronin insisted there was no ideological difference between them and took positions to his left on Israel, also backed both abolishing ICE and Medicare for All.

https://t.co/gPqRmkbvM7

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

New England, the oldest collection of states in the union, has been the center of the Democratic rebellion against elderly incumbents: Rejection of Mills in the Senate primary, Bronin's win, and then challenges against Markey + Lynch coming next month.

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

@theodoricmeyer I decided somewhat arbitrarily a member-on-member primary doesn't count.

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

Michigan, where the candidates and the stakes of the race were much better defined in both paid + earned media for weeks, seems like a much more obvious case of polling failure.

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

There's going to be a lot of talk about "polling failure" in this race but polls are a snapshot in time and people can change their minds quickly, especially in primaries where most voters agree on the broad strokes of most issues with every candidate running.

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

It's worth noting that the last poll of the #WIgov Democratic primary was from a week ago, and there was considerable controversy and Dem freakouts during that week. If any race was going to shift suddenly, it would be this one.

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

New: Wisconsin Democrats' political comeback has taken 15 years and cost, conservatively, about a quarter-billion dollars.

The party establishment is incredibly nervous about whether Francesca Hong can carry them over the finish line. https://t.co/8WTNE4q9ER

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

breakfast burritos here are real good

[David Plotz @davidplotz]

The delightful saga of Mott's Market, the corner store save by 100 Capitol Hill neighbors. https://t.co/TLJBwewHyk

[Jennifer Bendery @jbendery]

NEW: Rep. Ilhan Omar is demanding answers from DHS after local police discovered an ICE agent sitting outside of her latest town hall in a car with mismatched license plates, a violation of Minnesota law. https://t.co/xZR0aygZtQ

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

One trend worth watching here, which could extend into next month's Markey-Moulton race in Massachusetts: The voters most enthusiastic about generational change in New England seem to be senior citizens.

[Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 @Robillard]

New: Not every generational change election involves a DSA member.

The uber-credentialed Luke Bronin is posing a major threat to 78-year-old Rep. John Larson in CT, putting a stalwart liberal in trouble.

https://t.co/tRSYcRv6wN

[Jacob Rubashkin @JacobRubashkin]

Probably a coincidence