Robina von Stein

Backing the new wave of tech that enhances human agency.

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

@AdamNeumann @elonmusk @KatieMiller 😹

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

Imagination has to come from someone who believes something specific enough to look wrong for a while. And the biggest danger to our current ecosystem is absolutely NOBODY wants to look wrong while everyone who looks consensus-aligned “right” is getting freakin’ rich.

[Kyle Harrison @kwharrison13]

https://t.co/s1TPiUeNX0

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

What is love?

(Baby don’t hurt me)

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

@SaidHaschemi After ages finally going viral 🚀🚀

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

@LucianaLix @Alfred_Lin @dougleone @gradypb @andrew__reed @shaunmmaguire Let’s catch up soon 💕

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

From the archives: IBM (1979) internal management program slideshow.

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

@venturetwins 😹

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

How can someone be so cool @alexandr_wang ?!

[Cleo Abram @cleoabram]

Meta AI Chief @alexandr_wang on China: “I've personally changed my own opinion on this matter.

In the past I was very worried about China. I had read these old speeches that were given by PRC officials in the past that talked about how they viewed AI as this opportunity to leapfrog the West.

But as time has gone on, I think we’re painting them to be too much of a boogeyman when they're going to see the same things that we see in terms of this is powerful technology. There's going to be a lot of shared goals in making sure that AI goes well.”

Full HUGE* Conversation out now.

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

@alexandr_wang 😂😂always we follow you 😉

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

@alexandr_wang You are an absolute genius, Alex!

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

I watched Digger last night. As someone who spent the last 4 years investing in climate tech and now spends so much time on AI, this movie felt so in-your-face! A very good reminder that we are all slaves to our own system…
Must-watch if you haven't seen it yet.

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

@albertwenger Interesting.. I think you need agency to be fully autonomous (acting on your own will). With AI, the bigger risk isn't losing your will, it's losing your agency. And once you lose your agency, you give away your autonomy without noticing as we form our own will by acting.

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

That is so true! Looking forward people building technologies that enhance human agency 👀

[Albert Wenger 🌎🔥⌛ @albertwenger]

We are getting autonomous vehicles, autonomous agents and even autonomous weapons. What we really need are autonomous humans!

[Venky Ganesan @venkyganesan]

A few thoughts on the current state of venture capital.

When the Music Is Playing

In July 2007, a few weeks before the credit markets seized up, Chuck Prince, then the CEO of Citigroup, gave an interview to the Financial Times. The line everyone remembers is this one: "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance." He was mocked for it for years afterward, and he lost his job a few months later. But I have come to think he was saying something honest. He wasn't claiming the music would play forever. He was admitting that he couldn't sit down while it was still going, and neither could anyone else in his seat.

I've been thinking about that quote a lot lately, because right now is the most disorienting period in venture capital I can remember, and I have been doing this for a while.

Here is what makes it disorienting. It's not that things are bad. Some things are spectacular. We have companies in our portfolio growing faster than anything I have seen in my career, and I don't say that lightly. At the same time, we have companies with no revenue, no product, and a founding team you could fit in a conference room raising billions of dollars at valuations of $10 to $50 billion. Both of these things are true at once, and if you try to reason about them with the same framework you will drive yourself crazy.

Two ideas have helped me make sense of it. Neither is mine.

The first is reflexivity, which George Soros has been writing about since the 1980s. In most of life, perception follows reality: the weather is what it is, and your opinion of it changes nothing. In markets, it runs the other way too. Prices change what participants believe, and what participants believe changes the prices. The feedback loop can run for a long time, and while it's running it looks exactly like progress.

Here is how reflexivity is playing out in AI. Full disclosure: Menlo is an investor in Anthropic, so read the following with that in mind. People watched a frontier lab go from a $4 billion valuation to $18 billion, then $60 billion, then $180 billion, then $380 billion, and now something close to a trillion. They drew the obvious conclusion: that is what a neo lab looks like. So the next neo lab gets priced off that path, not off anything it has built. Then it gets marked up in a subsequent round, and the markup itself becomes the proof. Look at Thinking Machines. Look at Reflection. At that point valuation has stopped being an output of the metrics and has become the metric. Nobody is discounting cash flows. They are discounting the last round.

Soros is very clear about one thing, and it's the part people skip: you cannot know when or how a reflexive process ends. You only know that it does. Every one of them has.

The second idea is Chuck Prince's, and it explains why smart people keep dancing even when they can see the loop for what it is. As far as I can tell, there are two groups on the dance floor.

The first group got in early. Firms like ours were in some of these AI companies before the numbers got silly, and the paper gains are enormous. When you are sitting on gains like that, you start to feel like you're playing with house money. I have been around long enough to know that house money is the most dangerous kind, because you don't respect it the way you respect money you had to earn.

The second group missed the early rounds and knows it. Their LPs know it too. So they are trying to make up for lost time by writing very large checks very late, which is the one strategy almost guaranteed to turn a missed opportunity into a real loss.

House money on one side, FOMO on the other, and reflexivity feeding both. That's the whole story. Everyone has a reason to keep dancing, and the reasons are different, which is why nobody can talk anyone else off the floor.

So what do you do? The instinct in our business is to answer with company identification: just pick the right neo lab and you'll be fine. I think that's the trap. When price has become the signal, being right about the company is not enough, because you can be right about the company and still be wrong about the price by a factor of ten. The public-market investors I admire figured this out a long time ago. They spend as much time on how much to own as on what to own.

The winners in venture over the next decade will be the firms that treat portfolio composition and position sizing as seriously as they treat sourcing. How much of the fund is in companies whose valuation rests on the last round rather than on revenue? What happens to the portfolio if the reflexive loop breaks next year instead of in five? Those are not exciting questions. They are the ones that will matter.

The music will stop. It always does. Dance if you must, but know where the chairs are.

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

@alexander_jais Me too!

[Dario Amodei @DarioAmodei]

We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.

Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.

You can read the full post here: https://t.co/OGyPb7yaYt

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

@elonmusk @bot 🔥🔥

[clem 🤗 @ClementDelangue]

Sorry, but asking Jacob about AI extinction risk is like asking your AC guy about climate change.

Not saying it's necessarily uninteresting or wrong per se but let’s keep things in perspective and hear from the full range of expertise across the ecosystem!

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

@glennsolomon @JensenHuang @bchesky @ycombinator @AnthropicAI I hope we've got the right running shoes on for this race. Love for humans ❤️. Let's keep building. Keep rethinking. It still is day one.

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

San Francisco has taken the AI pill 💊 (or probably two at once - still swallowing it).

The taste? Excitement everywhere. A week of @GoldmanSachs Communacopia, @ycombinator Demo Day, TOO MANY founder drinks. Here's what stood out:

[Robina von Stein @robina_stein]

@glennsolomon @JensenHuang @bchesky @ycombinator Botton line: Excitement everywhere, and in between, sometimes, somewhere, a few screams (from the streets and the web alike @AnthropicAI 👋). Everyone's fully committed to AI, but no one knows exactly where this is going. We're all trying to figure it out while running.