Robin Koepke

Economist in the IMF’s Strategy, Policy and Review Department,
Co-founder of the IMF's PortWatch platform:

[Mike Schuler @MikeSchuler]

Houthis pledge partial ceasefire in the Red Sea

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

Mental models describe the way the world works. This book is about getting out of our own way so we can better understand how the world really is and make better decisions. Very highly recommend it!

9 great mental models that will improve your understanding:

[IMF @IMFNews]

Shipping vol. through the Suez Canal dropped 70% y/y in 2024Q3, unchanged from the prior quarter. Traffic at the Cape of Good Hope rose over 50% y/y as ships rerouted from the Red Sea. Panama Canal transit stabilized at 88% of last year's level in 2024Q3: https://t.co/iKgpQ1IhtN

[Robin Koepke @robinkoepke]

Today's 50 bps Fed rate cut marks the beginning of a monetary easing cycle that may lead to a sustained rebound in capital flows to emerging markets. Read our recent blog here:
#FedRateCut #MonetaryEasing #EmergingMarkets #EconomicInsights

[IMF @IMFNews]

Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may help revive foreign currency flows to emerging and developing economies, which fell sharply in 2022-23 as the Fed tightened. Read more here: https://t.co/SoRNUbY1yO

[Gita Gopinath @GitaGopinath]

Fed rate cuts may help revive foreign currency flows to emerging and developing Economies. These flows fell sharply during 2022-23 as the Fed tightened. Read more here: https://t.co/ystOn3ytU3

[Clemens Graf von Luckner @ClemensGvL]

New Paper on crypto and capital flows. A 🧵:
Argentina, Venezuela, Nigeria, Ukraine … When- & wherever in the world governments impose capital controls, people turn to crypto to transfer their money abroad and back. Circumventing capital controls.

https://t.co/XeoHgiBBNV

[IMF @IMFNews]

With climate change, economies face more severe disasters more often. Earlier this month, Jamaica’s Port of Kingston saw a sharp drop in maritime trade as Hurricane Beryl swept by the southern coast. Activity recovered the following week. Learn more at https://t.co/iKgpQ1IhtN

[IMF @IMFNews]

The changes in sub-Saharan Africa's population structure and characteristics may present the biggest single opportunity for its economies, but countries will only be able to enjoy the dividends if they prioritize investment in education. https://t.co/WEobTLOb2U

[IMF @IMFNews]

Shipping volume through the Panama Canal is recovering, while shippers are still re-routing most transit volume that would normally go through the Red Sea via the Cape of Good Hope. Explore the data on PortWatch. https://t.co/sNX0nfsyK0

[GeniusThinking @GeniusGTX]

A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that distorts decision-making.

The greatest thinkers like Musk, Munger, Tesla, and Feynman... all learned to avoid them.

The 7 most powerful cognitive biases I've found:

[IMF @IMFNews]

Suez Canal shipping volume was down by two-thirds in April 2024 compared to the previous year, intensifying global trade disruptions. More insights on PortWatch. https://t.co/L0siIs6Xql

[IMF @IMFNews]

The global economy has shown resilience during disinflation. But at 3.2% projected for 2024 and 2025, global growth remains below the 3.8% historical average. Reforms that foster productivity can help boost growth over the medium term. More in the #WEO. https://t.co/tPL4fgxIEw

[IMF @IMFNews]

IMF Growth Forecast: 2024
🇺🇸 US: 2.7%
🇩🇪 Germany: 0.2%
🇫🇷 France: 0.7%
🇮🇹 Italy: 0.7%
🇪🇸 Spain: 1.9%
🇬🇧 UK: 0.5%
🇯🇵 Japan: 0.9%
🇨🇳 China: 4.6%
🇮🇳 India: 6.8%
🇷🇺 Russia: 3.2%
🇧🇷 Brazil: 2.2%
🇲🇽 Mexico: 2.4%
🇸🇦 KSA: 2.6%
🇳🇬 Nigeria: 3.3%
🇿🇦 S. Africa: 0.9%

https://t.co/tPL4fgygu4

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker before becoming a researcher in philosophical, mathematical, and (mostly) practical problems with probability.

He is the author of the Incerto, a five-volume philosophical essay on uncertainty.

12 timeless wisdom from @nntaleb 🧵

[IMF @IMFNews]

Red Sea shipping volume dropped 55 percent y/y in 2024Q1 and 64 percent y/y in March. So far, equivalent to 2 percent of 2023 global maritime trade (about 2,900 ships) has been diverted from the Suez Canal since the onset of disruptions in mid-December: https://t.co/sNX0nfsyK0.

[Robin Koepke @robinkoepke]

Just released: A disruption page about the Port of Baltimore on PortWatch. Track daily trade flows and simulate spillovers: https://t.co/sw653SWpmL
#baltimorebridge, #baltimore, #trade, #supplychain
cc: @biancoresearch; @mercoglianos; @johnkonrad;

[IMF @IMFNews]

Disruptions at the Port of Baltimore could have knock-on effects across U.S. and international supply chains. The IMF's PortWatch platform provides visual insights into potential spillover effects and daily activity estimates. Learn more at https://t.co/sNX0nfsyK0

[Esri @Esri]

Policymakers & the public can monitor trade disruptions from space thanks to @IMFNews & the @UniofOxford. They created PortWatch, an open platform that uses satellite-based vessel data & #GIS to monitor & simulate disruptions to #maritime trade flows. 🚢 https://t.co/dbdEQPr8dY

[IMF @IMFNews]

In the first 10 days of March, transit volume through the Suez Canal declined by an estimated 62% y/y. Meanwhile, trade volume passing around the Cape of Good Hope more than doubled y/y. Learn more at https://t.co/sNX0nfsyK0

[Robin Koepke @robinkoepke]

Check out our new "Chart of the Week" blog: Red Sea Attacks Disrupt Global Trade (https://t.co/NqXTTeyhmt)
This is the team behind it: https://t.co/7TRg7RpOOc
#RedSea, #trade
cc: @biancoresearch, @mercoglianos, @johnkonrad, @Schuldensuehner

[IMF @IMFNews]

In the first two months of 2024, Suez Canal trade dropped by 50% from a year earlier, while trade through the Panama Canal fell by 32%. Learn more in our latest blog: https://t.co/1GOa7pWSJu