Rogerio⚡

“Planejamento de longo prazo não lida com decisões futuras, mas com um futuro de decisões presentes”

[Rogerio⚡ @rocas_br]

RT @PedroCerize: Maior IPO da história foi precificado a 100x Receita. Comparado com o valor de mercado, a emissão de 75bi parece modesta.…

[Rogerio⚡ @rocas_br]

@clubedopairico é Zé, ontem foi pancada mesmo.. pelo andar da carruagem e comportamento do mês anterior, eles podem impulsionar essa saída já na próxima semana.. acelerando a queda (ps. opinião)

[Rogerio⚡ @rocas_br]

@sunilgurjar01 correlação ?

[Rogerio⚡ @rocas_br]

@moises_beida buenas!! boa semana a tds

[Rogerio⚡ @rocas_br]

@clubedopairico Foi qdo tivemos a virada de mão dos gringos nas vendas, entre os dias 15 e 17 abr

[Rogerio⚡ @rocas_br]

@clubedopairico 12/jun

[Rogerio⚡ @rocas_br]

@MapleStax CBC

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 Yesterday I wrote that all four historic market risks – inflation, liquidity, tech, credit – are simultaneously present for the first time in 50 years.

Today let's zoom out further. Way out.

This chart shows 225 years of US stock prices, inflation-adjusted. It reveals something most modern investors have never seen, because the data simply isn't long enough in our living memory.

Roughly every 60 years, the market completes a full secular cycle:

– 1802 → 1857: 50-year rise, ended with US secession war and 5 years down
– 1857 → 1920: 63-year cycle, ended with WWI, post-war inflation and 11 years down
– 1920 → 1981: 61-year cycle, ended with oil shocks, Vietnam, stagflation and 13 years down
– 1981 → ?: the current cycle

If the pattern holds, the next secular top arrives around 2028. Followed by a 10-15 year inflation-driven drawdown that bottoms somewhere between 2039 and 2043.

The recipe is always the same

Each secular ending has three ingredients:
1. Persistent inflation
2. Geopolitical conflict (war, deglobalization, empire transition)
3. A speculative melt-up in the dominant sector of the era

The 1850s had railroads.
The 1910s had electrification and trusts.
The 1970s had the Nifty Fifty.
The 2020s have AI.

We're already two of three in 2026. Inflation has returned. Deglobalization is accelerating. The AI melt-up is the missing piece, and it's underway.

Why this matters

The playbook that worked from 1981 to today was defined by one regime: falling rates, globalization, passive flows, US tech dominance.

That regime ends with every 60-year cycle. Historically, the next decade rewards a completely different set of assets.

What worked in the cycle just ending:
– Long-duration growth
– Passive index investing
– US large-cap concentration
– Tech

What has worked through every secular transition since 1800:
– Cash-flowing businesses with pricing power
– Real assets and infrastructure
– Defensive, durable, boring
– Active stock selection

The uncomfortable part

Every cycle felt unique to the people living through it.

The 1920s investor was certain the new technologies of his age were different from the railroads of 1857.

The 1968 investor was certain stagflation couldn't happen in the modern economy.

They were all wrong in the same way.

If we're somewhere near the top of cycle four, the quality stocks being mocked today aren't dead money.

They're early.

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

Every Trading Strategy Explained in 6 Minutes

0:00 - Fibonacci Retracements
0:27 - Chart Patterns
1:01 - Elliot Wave
1:51 - FVG
3:06 - Support & Resistance
5:01 - Volume
5:22 - Supply and Demand
5:50 - Break of Structure
5:58 - Change of Character

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 EVERYTHING THAT COULD GO WRONG FOR MARKETS WENT WRONG TODAY.

S&P 500 down -1.65%, wiping out $1.14 trillion.
Nasdaq down -2.60%, wiping out $1.11 trillion.
Gold down -3.38%, wiping out $1 trillion.
Silver down -6.9%, wiping out $280 billion.
Bitcoin down -6.31%, wiping out $80 billion.

In total $2.5 TRILLION wiped out in a single session. These were not isolated moves. Everything started breaking at the same time.

It started with the jobs report this morning.

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May. Wall Street expected 88,000. That is almost double.

On any normal day, strong jobs is good news. But inflation is already at 3.8% and oil is sitting at $90. A labor market this strong tells the Fed it cannot cut interest rates and may actually need to raise them.

The probability of a rate hike this year went from 40% to 57% in a single day. That spooked every investor holding tech and growth stocks because higher rates mean those stocks are worth less today.

Then the AI trade started cracking.

Yesterday Broadcom reported record earnings: revenue up 48%, AI chip sales up 143% and the stock still crashed 12.6%. The reason was simple.

Broadcom did not raise its AI revenue targets for the year. Investors had expected it to. That single miss made people ask a question they had been avoiding for months: are we paying too much for AI stocks?

That question got louder today when a research firm called SemiAnalysis revealed that Nvidia's next-generation AI chips will need significantly less memory than everyone assumed, roughly half of what the market was pricing in.

Memory chips are what companies like SK Hynix and Samsung make. SK Hynix fell nearly 10% today. Samsung fell over 6%.

South Korea's entire stock market crashed 5.5% in a single session. Japan's semiconductor stocks did the same.

And then Anthropic added fuel to the fire by publishing a report warning that AI is getting close to the point where it can improve itself without human help and calling for a global pause in AI development.

Coming on the same day as the memory demand news and Broadcom's miss, it fed a single growing fear across the market: what if the AI boom is moving faster than the business models can keep up with?

Underneath all of this, there is a liquidity problem nobody is talking about.

SpaceX goes public next week at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Anthropic just filed to go public. OpenAI is next.

These three companies together are worth $4 to $5 trillion. Fund managers need cash to buy into these listings.

But cash levels are already at their lowest since early 2024. The only way to raise cash is to sell what they already own. That selling is happening right now.

The new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also hold his very first policy meeting in 11 days. He was appointed by Trump with the expectation of cutting rates.

He is now walking into a situation where inflation is high, oil is high, and the job market is running hot. Investors do not know what he will do.

When nobody knows what the most powerful central banker in the world will decide in less than two weeks, the safest move is to reduce risk today.

Everything that could go wrong, went wrong at the same time. A hot jobs report, a collapsing ceasefire, a crack in the AI trade, a trillion dollar liquidity drain, and a Fed meeting with no clear outcome.

[Truecaller @Samuelsworld]

🤖🩸 Virge apertaram a descarga, $BTC perdeu as pregas….

Quando furar $60k, aí se pânico e correria.

Tenho dó da galera que comprou acima de $100k e com dólar acima de $6.

Em Real caiu de R$680k para R$304k, caindo 55% em menos de um ano.

Agora os gênios do bitcoin que falaram que ia bater $250k no fim de 2025 sumiram. Silêncio ensurdecedor.

[El Artesano del Trading @Alestrader]

Puedo descartar una operación en menos de 5 minutos.

No necesito indicadores.

No necesito noticias.

Ni siquiera necesito saber qué activo estoy mirando.

Solo observo 4 cosas.

Aquí están:

↓

[Argon Investimentos @argon_invest]

QUE DESTRUIÇÃO...

Papéis sensíveis a juros sendo dizimados na B3.

Pediram promoção, mas o que veio foi uma aniquilação.

Um retorno a média violento... a lista é longa de papéis que estavam subindo 30%/40% no ano e devolveram tudo em poucas semanas.

[Rogerio⚡ @rocas_br]

@moises_beida Feito mestre ;)

[Rogerio⚡ @rocas_br]

@moises_beida ahh tá, esse realmente não tinha incluído ainda
mas já vou fazer isso!! obrigado pelo toque mestre

[Gabriel Diniz Junqueira @gabrieldjunq]

📈 O IBOV Caiu 8 Semanas Seguidas. O Que a História Diz Sobre o Que Vem Depois?

Pegamos todos os casos históricos de sequências longas de queda no Ibovespa e medimos o que aconteceu nos 3 meses seguintes. Os dados são claros e surpreendentes.

Após 5 semanas consecutivas de queda (14 casos históricos):
◆ Retorno médio em 3 meses: +13,1%
◆ 71% das vezes o mercado subiu
◆ Melhor caso: Mar/2020 +51% (fundo do COVID)
◆ Pior caso: Jul/2008 -29% (antes do colapso do Lehman)

Após 6 semanas consecutivas de queda (4 casos):
◆ Retorno médio em 3 meses: +1,8%
◆ 75% das vezes positivo
◆ Pior caso: Mai/1998 -28% (crise Rússia/LTCM se intensificando)
◆ Demais: Set/1998 +19%, Jun/2018 +11%, Jun/2012 +5%

Após 7 semanas consecutivas de queda (1 único caso histórico):
◆ Mai/2004 → +22,5% nos 3 meses seguintes
◆ 100% de aproveitamento — única amostra, vale o que vale

O padrão histórico é consistente: depois de sequências longas de venda, o mercado tende a recuperar. A exceção estrutural é quando a sequência de queda é o sintoma de uma crise em curso e não o fim dela, 2008 é o exemplo perfeito, onde o pior ainda estava por vir.

A pergunta certa não é "vai subir depois de 8 semanas de queda?" A resposta histórica seria sim na maioria dos casos. A pergunta é: estamos no Mar/2020 ou no Jul/2008? Ou seja, a queda já precificou o problema, ou o problema ainda está se revelando?

Em 2020 o gatilho era exógeno e passageiro. Em 2008 era sistêmico e ainda em desenvolvimento. O contexto atual, tarifas, guerra, eleições, cabe mais em qual dos dois cenários? Essa é a análise que o investidor precisa fazer.

Fonte: Yahoo Finance (^BVSP) | Elaboração: Santa Fé Investimentos | Não constitui recomendação de investimento.

[DANNY @Danny_Crypton]

🚨 S&P 500 MAX DRAWDOWN IN EVERY MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR:

1962: -28.0%
1966: -22.2%
1970: -36.1%
1974: -48.2%
1978: -14.1%
1982: -27.1%
1986: -9.4%
1990: -19.9%
1994: -8.9%
1998: -19.3%
2002: -33.8%
2006: -7.7%
2010: -16.0%
2014: -7.4%
2018: -22.43%
2022: -24.87%
2024: -20.93%

NOT A SINGLE POSITIVE RETURN IN 60 YEARS

2026 WON'T BE DIFFERENT

Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS

I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job

If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it!

[Rogerio⚡ @rocas_br]

@ografista posicionou nessa perda de suporte?
175150

[Rogerio⚡ @rocas_br]

@ografista Imagino que tenho pego uns 350 pts (com 200cts), belo trade !!!