Rogerthat1

Tweets are only my opinions.

[Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter]

Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair Isn’t Automatically Bullish

Stocks have ripped higher over the past two weeks almost entirely because markets convinced themselves the Fed is shifting in a more dovish direction. That started with Williams hinting at softer policy, followed by weak labor data and cooling inflation prints. The odds for a December cut went from barely above 50% to nearly a sure thing in a matter of days.

But there’s another layer driving this move that most investors are glossing over, and it has nothing to do with the December meeting. It’s the expectation that Kevin Hassett will be the next Fed Chair. Trump has basically telegraphed that he intends to nominate him in early 2026, and among the finalists, Hassett is seen as the clear dove. Markets are already pricing in a friendlier Fed once he replaces Powell in mid-2026.

Here’s the problem, and this is where things get messy. Stocks might love the idea of a more accommodative Fed, but bonds sure don’t. The 10-year yield jumped 10 basis points late last week and into this week, partly because of hawkish BOJ chatter but also because bond markets are nervous that Hassett could end up too dovish. If we get a chair who misreads the economy, caves to political pressure, or simply leans too hard on easy policy, then inflation could and likely will re-accelerate. That was the entire Arthur Burns saga in the 1970s, and nobody wants to replay that movie.

Hassett isn’t automatically a bad pick, but there’s one non-negotiable: whoever runs the Fed cannot appear compromised. Independence is the whole ballgame. If investors think the Fed is bending to politics, yields will shoot higher and erase any benefit from slightly lower Fed funds. That’s what the bond market is sniffing out right now.

As we head into 2026, that’s the bigger swing factor for stocks, not whether the Fed lands at 3.625% or 2.875%. Stability and credibility matter more than a quarter-point.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

If you're having a bad day, just remember Cathie Wood bought Go0gle at $323.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

"Sell it all"

[Officer Lew @officer_Lew]

BREAKING🚨: An Asian nail salon owner is blowing up online after completely shutting down a rude Black customer who told him to "go back to your country."

He fired back: "I saw your EBT card. I pay the taxes that buy your food, and you're telling me to go back to my country?"

People are exhausted with this nonsense.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

A.I DEBT BUBBLE

Amazon (AMZN): The highest total debt at $160.4 billion.

Microsoft (MSFT): Total debt stands at $120.4 billion,

Meta Platforms (META): $51.1 billion in total debt

Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL): $44.2 billion total debt,

CoreWeave (CRWV): Total debt at approximately $14 billion (extreme leverage- Insurance spreads have skyrocketed and default bets sit at 40% next 5 years )

Oracle (ORCL): Total debt reached $111.6 billion (insurance spreads have rocketed recently)

[Mr PitBull Stories @MrPitbull07]

"My name's Raymond. I'm 73. I work the parking lot at St. Joseph's Hospital. Minimum wage, orange vest, a whistle I barely use. Most people don't even look at me. I'm just the old man waving cars into spaces.
But I see everything.

Like the black sedan that circled the lot every morning at 6 a.m. for three weeks. Young man driving, grandmother in the passenger seat. Chemotherapy, I figured. He'd drop her at the entrance, then spend 20 minutes hunting for parking, missing her appointments.

One morning, I stopped him. "What time tomorrow?"
"6:15," he said, confused.
"Space A-7 will be empty. I'll save it."
He blinked. "You... you can do that?"
"I can now," I said.

Next morning, I stood in A-7, holding my ground as cars circled angrily. When his sedan pulled up, I moved. He rolled down his window, speechless. "Why?"
"Because she needs you in there with her," I said. "Not out here stressing."
He cried. Right there in the parking lot.

Word spread quietly. A father with a sick baby asked if I could help. A woman visiting her dying husband. I started arriving at 5 a.m., notebook in hand, tracking who needed what. Saved spots became sacred. People stopped honking. They waited. Because they knew someone else was fighting something bigger than traffic.
But here's what changed everything, A businessman in a Mercedes screamed at me one morning. "I'm not sick! I need that spot for a meeting!"

"Then walk," I said calmly. "That space is for someone whose hands are shaking too hard to grip a steering wheel."

He sped off, furious. But a woman behind him got out of her car and hugged me. "My son has leukemia," she sobbed. "Thank you for seeing us."

The hospital tried to stop me. "Liability issues," they said. But then families started writing letters. Dozens. "Raymond made the worst days bearable." "He gave us one less thing to break over."

Last month, they made it official. "Reserved Parking for Families in Crisis." Ten spots, marked with blue signs. And they asked me to manage it.

But the best part? A man I'd helped two years ago, his mother survived, came back. He's a carpenter. Built a small wooden box, mounted it by the reserved spaces. Inside? Prayer cards, tissues, breath mints, and a note,

"Take what you need. You're not alone. -Raymond & Friends"
People leave things now. Granola bars. Phone chargers. Yesterday, someone left a hand-knitted blanket.
I'm 73. I direct traffic in a hospital parking lot. But I've learned this: Healing doesn't just happen in operating rooms. Sometimes it starts in a parking space. When someone says, "I see your crisis. Let me carry this one small piece."

So pay attention. At the grocery checkout, the coffee line, wherever you are. Someone's drowning in the little things while fighting the big ones.

Hold a door. Save a spot. Carry the weight no one else sees.
It's not glamorous. But it's everything."

Let this story reach more hearts....

Credit: Mary Nelson

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

MicroStrategy's preferred stock is now trading at 66¢ on the $1.

The bond market is demanding 15% or more to lend to $MSTR marking them as distressed junk bonds.

[Jim @JP_Money_95630]

I can't believe China doesn't respond before Monday morning.

Nothing worse for $AAPL then a China Tiff With the USA Again.

Risk is there... They like to Drop News on $Nvda Day, it's tactical.

Be Cautious ⚠️ ✨️ 😎

$NVDA $AAPL $QQQ $SMH

[Ted @TedPillows]

This is looking really bad for $BTC.

[Hannibal999 @Hannibal9972485]

@michaeljburry Here is what he’s saying 🚨 Michael Burry was warning us in no uncertain terms that we were being conned.

If we had widespread testing from the start testing the healthy, the mildly sick, and the asymptomatic we would have seen the real fatality rate was tiny, closer to seasonal flu levels for most of the population. He’s saying the fear was based on bad data. Not because the virus lied, but because the testing didn’t show the full picture.
——

His “<0.2% fatality rate” claim was based on a premise almost no one was acknowledging in March 2020:

If you test everyone, you uncover all the asymptomatic and mild cases the “invisible” denominator.

Once you include all those invisible infections in your fatality rate calculation, the scary headlines vanish. The virus becomes far more survivable, especially for the non-elderly.

In other words:
•COVID wasn’t killing 3–5% of people who got it.
•It was likely killing well under 0.2%, but only if you counted everyone who had it not just the sick ones showing up at hospitals.

That difference between case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR) is everything.
Burry saw through it early. Most policymakers didn’t. Or worse they did, but ignored it.
—-

He’s saying: if the fatality rate was this low, we didn’t need to crush 99.8% of people’s lives to “save” the 0.2%. The cure was worse than the disease and not by a little, but by orders of magnitude.

The people running the show weren’t trying to minimize total harm. They were trying to minimize blame. That’s why they nuked the economy instead of focusing protection on nursing homes the actual kill zone.

In short: never let a crisis go to waste. The lockdowns weren’t just overreactions they were also opportunities for control, distraction, and economic restructuring that benefitted the already-powerful.

——

PCR Testing Was Weaponized to Inflate “Cases,” Not Clarify Risk

This one’s huge. PCR tests weren’t just diagnostic they became the emotional barometer of the pandemic.

But here’s what most people never grasped:
•PCR tests can detect tiny fragments of viral RNA, even weeks after infection, when the person is no longer contagious or symptomatic.
•The “cycle threshold” (Ct) how many cycles of amplification are run was often set absurdly high (35–45 cycles), which massively increased false positives or clinically irrelevant positives.
•Fauci himself quietly admitted (in offhand interviews) that anything above 33 cycles was essentially junk data for transmission relevance.

Now think about this:

Governments locked down entire cities based on “case spikes” driven by hyper-sensitive PCR tests, not by meaningful increases in actual illness or hospitalizations.

Translation: the “second wave” and much of the panic was statistical theater, not epidemiological reality.
This kept the fear alive and justified extending emergency powers indefinitely.
——

By early-mid 2020, internal data (later leaked from German, UK, and U.S. agencies) showed:
•IFR for people under 40 was well under 0.01%.
•IFR for children and teens was close to zero.
•80+% of deaths were among people over 70, often with comorbidities, and especially those in institutionalized care.

And yet…
•Schools were shut down.
•Outdoor playgrounds were taped off.
•Parks were closed.
•Working-age people were told to stay home.
•“Non-essential” businesses (aka small, independent ones) were obliterated.

None of that matched the age-targeted risk profile of the virus.

Why?

Because a targeted response is too smart to justify sweeping control.
Blanket panic enabled blanket policy which meant maximum authority with minimum nuance.
—-

[Rogerthat1 @rogerthat191]

@MarginsLife @alshfaw I need to read 🤪

[Rasmus Skousen @Rasmus_Skousen]

@adamfeuerstein It’s about as funny as you calling yourself a journalist. Commentator yes, journalist lol.

[Charles Curran @charliebcurran]

If you think AI film can't be art than explain this.

[Walter Deemer @WalterDeemer]

Bob Farrell's Rules. #7 is the one on breadth.

[Rogerthat1 @rogerthat191]

$capr

[Matthew Herper @matthewherper]

An eye-catching -- and curious -- detail from @LizzyLaw_'s FDA story:

Nicole Verdun, the official who was marched out of the FDA earlier this year, "may be returning from administrative leave after [an] investigation apparently found that her behavior did not merit permanent removal."

I do wonder if this is a signal that not being careful about legal matters -- something that has led previous FDA officials to walk on eggshells -- could lead to a lot of FDA decisions later being walked back. It's only one data point, of course.

https://t.co/N9rKRiIQDm

[Rogerthat1 @rogerthat191]

@conciouscreator @alshfaw you might find this interesting

[Rogerthat1 @rogerthat191]

@smarter411 Spx upside numbers please

[TB1Kinobe™️🇺🇸 @TB1Kinobe]

California?

[Rogerthat1 @rogerthat191]

@alshfaw @321suomynona Lmao. Have a good weekend man