Part Investor (AI Buildout), Part Entrepreneur on hunt for next venture. Founded @FreshWorksApps - sold to EY '22. Interested in 🇺🇸 economy and 🇨🇦 politics
A deal signed 4 months back would have gotten them about 25% less revenue and these deals are 5-10 years. As IREN shareholders we should be happy that they are waiting for the right moment to close the deal, at the right price. None of the operative capacity is unsigned- and that’s the metric to track.
1/My biggest position $IREN just gave back weeks of gains in four days. The tape says sell, the FUD is everywhere, and I didn't touch a single share.
Here's the first-principles case for holding IREN through the noise, and the two lessons that taught me to sit still. 🧵
I understand that it’s disappointing, but the key question to ask is if they’re doing anything, visible, that might indicate poor performance of their key product (which is DC) or if there is shift in structural demand. The answer to both these questions is NO. Ignore the short term noise
@otium33@_Sgr_A_Star@stocktrader989@jiahanjimliu@herling_jared In my experience of being founder-operator- you tend to spend much more marketing $€£ only in quarters when you’re extra bullish on the business, and so are the RSU grants.
History tells us that Elon got most of his grants in quarters presiding or just before major milestones.
6/That's the difference between holding and hoping. Hoping is watching the price and praying. Holding is knowing exactly what would change your mind, and confirming today that none of it happened.
The bottleneck is power. I own the bottleneck. The rest is noise with a timestamp.
Not financial advice. I'm long IREN and talking my book, which is exactly why I wrote down what would make me leave.
5/ Learning #2: delayed gratification is the whole game. The gains aren't made at the buy, they're made in the holding, through the drawdowns that shake out everyone playing a shorter game than you. IREN roughly tripled in about three months last year. I'd have missed it flinching.
But conviction isn't blindness, that's how people blow up. So I wrote my exits in advance, calm, before the market tested me: Microsoft pausing, a structural revenue miss, dilution without matching contracts. None have fired. @jiahanjimliu was a great help, and so was my IREN community
@xai just exposed the most valuable product in AI infrastructure. 1/5
It isn’t electricity.
It isn’t GPUs.
It isn’t even software.
It is TIME: a giant, functioning cluster available now while everyone else is waiting years.
5/5 The bet: don’t sell tomorrow’s scarce capacity today at commodity prices.
Build large installed blocks. Prove execution. Then sell hyperscalers and frontier labs what they cannot manufacture quickly: speed, certainty and scale.
xAI showed the price of “ready now.” $IREN
@FransBakker9812@jiahanjimliu@bitcoinbutcher1
@xai just exposed the most valuable product in AI infrastructure. 1/5
It isn’t electricity.
It isn’t GPUs.
It isn’t even software.
It is TIME: a giant, functioning cluster available now while everyone else is waiting years.
4/5 This may explain why @IREN_Ltd isn’t rushing to fragment future capacity across small deals.
Dan says demand isn’t the constraint; the priority is the right long-term partners. His latest thesis puts large anchor contracts first—and smaller enterprise expansion later.