Román Padilla

Administrador de empresas

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

"Debes realizar por lo menos un movimiento diario, que te acerque un poco más a tu meta". Bruce Lee.

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@Cointelegraph Go short and shut the fuck up. Period.

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

El origen de la corrupción política. España como ejemplo

[Revolución.Política @RevolucionPltc]

La corrupción Política - Clase magistral - Antonio García-Trevijano

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@juanbiter En realidad es alcista para el dolar, por lo tanto, todo lo que cotiza contra el dolar cae. Pero es solo la volatilidad de la noticia. Los factores que precionan al dolar a la baja permanecen. En unas horas se habrá disipado ese efecto

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

This is my 3rd Bitcoin bear market. Here's what seems clear to me, that newer Bitcoiners may not feel....

1. This is what a BTC bear market bottom feels like

Normie friends have been asking me "is BTC going to be 60s forever?" and "what positive catalysts are on the horizon?"

One of the big lessons I've learned in BTC cycles is that the tops feel bullish... and the bottoms feel bearish.

The end of a bear market is primarily a function of running out of sellers. The bearish sentiment builds on itself and shakes out low conviction holders... until you exhaust potential sellers.

Or perhaps a more precise mental image... the bottom is in WHEN the pile of capital hoping for a lower entry price to buy BTC has become disproportionately large relative to remaining potential sellers.

A BTC bear market doesn't end because good news arrives. It ends because bearish momentum can't be sustained and naturally ebbs. Then, suddenly, people sitting in cash are caught offsides and must bid BTC higher as they try to get back in.

2. The 2022 cycle bottom felt similar

June 2022, it felt like shit watching BTC tumble below prior cycle high ($20k) for the first time ever. Price tumbled from $30k to $18k in a few days. People thought we were headed to $12k . In hindsight, that was peak bearish momentum.

Over the next ~5 months, BTC drifted lower, with FTX fallout setting a cycle low in November at $15.5k . BTC felt gloomy and quiet for 2 months... and then popped back to $23k in January 2023 all of a sudden.

In hindsight, that was the start of a 2.5 year bull market that took BTC to $126k, roughly ~8x from cycle low.

3. Metrics show 2026 repeating the psychology of 2022

This chart shows Short-Term Holder cost basis (pink line) and how it tracks with BTC market price (white line). The bottom half shows this as a ratio between the two numbers (STH MVRV). Credit to @_Checkmatey_ for this excellent chart.

In the 2022 bear market, you can see that the lowest STH MVRV ratio was June 2022. After this point, Short-Term Holder cost basis drifted lower along with BTC price for ~7 months, until January 2023 when BTC jumped convincingly above the pink line for the first time in 13 months... and a new bull market had begun.

In 2026, the MVRV ratio spiked lowest in Feb. Since then, STH cost basis and BTC price have drifted lower for ~6 months now.

4. What this could mean for BTC's near future

If the parallels between 2022 and 2026 continue, it would mean BTC price jumping convincingly above STH cost basis sometime in the next few months. (7 months post peak bearish momentum would mean September 2026; 13 months below STH cost basis trendline would mean November 2026.)

And in hindsight, that breakout moment could be the start of a 2.5 year bull market. (8x from $58k low would be $464k, but even a 4x would be $232k/BTC.)

If history repeats, this was the bottom. And in 4 years, you'll look back at $64k BTC the same way we now look back wistfully at $19k BTC.

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@JesseOlson 🤔

[Ali Charts @alicharts]

BITCOIN BULL MARKET IS HERE

1/5 🧵👇

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

"El sufrimiento no garantiza la grandeza, pero ninguna grandeza llega sin sufrimiento" D.G.

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@alicharts @ayazhaniffa Then go up!

[Juan Rodríguez @juanbiter]

Cuestión de tiempo⏳

Hoy #bitcoin representa el 0.12% del capital global… cuando conquiste el 1% estaremos alrededor del millón de dólares en precio por cada $BTC 😳

Entender porque el activo es deseable para bitcoiners e inversores, te mantiene con la paciencia necesaria a ~2035

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

"El único conocimiento verdaderamente importante es aquél que te hace perder la inocencia". JGM.

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

"Las ideologías son la organización emocional de la ignorancia colectiva". JGM

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@RubenVillaC El cierre de los cortos es pura gasolina 🚀

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@LifeThruBook Definitivamente, para comprenderla mejor

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@LifeThruBook Bitcoin 🤯

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@LifeThruBook 😅

[Román Padilla J. @RomanPadillaJ]

La única manera de alcanzar el éxito es superándote a tí mismo. Constantemente.

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@cryptomanran 😂

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@liber1679 @juanbiter 😂

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

#Bitcoin 👀

[David @david_eng_mba]

Venezuela Just Proved the Bitcoin Bull Case, And No One Is Paying Attention

Maduro used Tether to move 80% of Venezuela's oil revenue. Billions in sanctions evasion, settled on Tron since 2020.

Then the US made a phone call.

Tether froze the wallets.

Game over.

Everyone's focused on the arrest. The real story is the lesson every finance minister on earth just learned in real time:
Stable coins are a leash, not an escape.

If someone can freeze it, it isn't money. It doesn't solve sovereignty.

First principles:
USDT is dollar plumbing without SWIFT. Faster. Cheaper. Still has a CEO. Still has a compliance department. Still picks up when Washington calls.

This is why USDT adoption exploded, 71-year-old grandmothers in Caracas pay their HOA fees in tether now. But useful ≠ sovereign.

The entire value proposition for sanctions evasion just got publicly falsified.

Now do the game theory:
You're Iran. Russia. Any country hedging against dollar weaponization. You just watched Venezuela's "crypto solution" get shut off like a light switch.

Where do you put reserves now?
USDT? Compromised.
Yuan? Political strings.
Gold? Try settling $500M across borders in 10 minutes.
CBDCs? Same kill switch, government branding.

There's exactly one asset that clears final settlement without asking permission from anyone.

21 million units. No CEO. No freeze function. No phone number.

This is the ad Bitcoin never had to buy.
The most desperate, highest-stakes capital on earth just learned there's only one door.

Price doesn't reflect it yet.
It will.

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@gisbert_ruben Mierda compi, qué te paso? Tú eras un tipo coherente.
Será que te hackearon la cuenta? 🤔

[Román Padilla @romanrepj]

@KimDotcom @grok, qué es lo que Elon sabe?