My conversation with @DanielSLoeb1, his first ever podcast and one I've been wanting to do for years.
Dan started Third Point in 1995 with $3 million. Today the firm manages over $24 billion across equities, credit, venture, and insurance.
Along the way he wrote some of the most iconic activist letters.
We discuss:
- Why deep value stopped working
- The power of writing
- The Twitter and XAI credit trades
- Lessons from FTX and Danaher
- The Sony and Sotheby's stories
- What makes a great analyst today
- The importance of kindness
I feel lucky we all get to learn from one of the greats.
Enjoy!
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
2:48 Macro Views and Tech Trends
5:13 The Roots of Third Point
10:30 Evolving to Quality and Thematic Investing
19:07 Market Psychology and Inefficiencies
24:10 Good and Bad Corporate Governance
29:19 Activism
31:23 Sotheby's
41:37 AI
44:28 Sony
52:50 Danaher's Operating System
56:31 Building an Insurance Business
59:25 FTX
1:05:17 What Makes a Great Analyst Today
1:07:24 The Next Decade
1:10:00 Kindest Thing
Dear @LloydBurr I think in the spirit of openness, you should really make a statement to us, the public about what you said that night in Nicola Willisโ office. I know itโs been a year since it happened but fairs fair.
๐๐จ๐จ๐๐ฒโ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐๐จ๐ฅ๐โ๐ฌ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐งโ๐ญ ๐๐จ ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ
Moodyโs has placed New Zealandโs credit rating on a negative outlook, underscoring growing concern about the Governmentโs worsening fiscal position.
Responding, Taxpayersโ Union spokesperson Tory Relf said:
โMinister Willis is right to say this is another warning that New Zealand canโt afford to simply spend more and borrow more. The problem is that is exactly what she is still doing.โ
โMinister Willis got her first warning on 21 March this year when Fitch moved New Zealand to a negative outlook. Since then, government debt has grown by almost $2 billion and the National Debt Clock is forecast to hit $300 billion before the election. Where is the fiscal discipline Minister Willis talks about?
โBlaming global uncertainty is a convenient distraction for Minister Willis. Moodyโs is pointing at Wellington. Despite the rhetoric, Government spending remains higher than under Grant Robertson, borrowing continues to climb, and there is no sign of a surplus this decade.โ
โCredit rating agencies do not act on vibes. They follow the numbers. Being placed on negative watch is a signal to investors that New Zealand is becoming a riskier place to lend to, which ultimately means higher interest costs for taxpayers.โ
โClinging to the AAA rating while being put on negative watch is like celebrating while the warning lights are flashing. If this is what fiscal discipline looks like, it is no wonder Moodyโs is losing confidence.โ
โThis must be a wake-up call ahead of Budget 2026. Until the Government matches its rhetoric with real spending restraint, more warnings, and eventually a downgrade, are inevitable.โ
The fact that Dirty politics operator David faraar took a screenshot immediately & sent it to newsrooms on Sunday & then conducts a curia poll on Monday when jenna lynch reports the unsubstantiated gutter media news
SPEAK VOLUMES
Barry Soper omits to reveal in the Hipkins story is that she was recently seen having coffee with mudslinger Simon Lusk (of the Dirty Politics scandal under John Key).
When Lusk has been proximal to public attacks historically, we usually find out later it was organised.
Chris Hipkins says he sought advice, not about his ex wife but about those re-publishing her [untrue] post. Explains why the Nat/NZ First Twitter accounts simultaneously deleted their posts. Media picked it up already & doing the job. Jenna Lynch repeated the allegations on air
Post appears to show Jade Paul, Hipkins' ex, defending Casey Costello last year - even as the NZ Ombudsman criticized Costello for breaking the law, Costello copied & pasted tobacco lobbying notes into Ministerial docs, & NZ First gave $300m in tax breaks to Philip Morris
Mลrena to everyone except Christopher Luxon who this morning decided to side with fossil fuel companies instead of lowering your power bills.
Weak and out of touch.
BREAKING: New Roy Morgan Poll - Labour + MP + Greens would be Government
Labour - 34%
National - 29%
Greens - 13.5
ACT - 10.5
NZF - 7%
MP - 2.5%
#nzpol