Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪

Pol Sci- International Relations & PhD Researcher 🇬🇱 #Greenland-European Union relations. Former UN 🇺🇳 & EU 🇪🇺 [email protected]

[Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪 @ros_judit]

Back in 2016 working for 🇺🇳 in Kosovo, I completed 🇩🇰 #DANCON March: 23km within 7 hours while carrying a 10 kg rucksack. All the vikings clapped upon my arrival, I was the last civilian! #KFOR #NATO

[Anonymous @YourAnonNews]

Denmark trolling Trump epically.

[Christine Nielsen @divingdane]

På jagt efter nye svar om mumierne på Uunartoq : I Sydgrønland gemmer der sig et helt usædvanligt gravlandskab af klippehuler. Nu undersøger forskerne mumierne og deres grave for at forstå, hvem de døde var. - KNR
https://t.co/2jYLEGy1wq

[Nick Lloyd @Civil_War_Spain]

First page of 18th century Basque-Icelandic dictionary. A Basque-Icelandic pidgin was spoken between locals and Basque whalers from ~1600 including the well-known expression "Fenicha for ju" meaning F**k you! https://t.co/caiYCBwMvd

[Försvarsmakten @Forsvarsmakten]

Yesterday Finnish and Swedish Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) fighter jets were scrambled to intercept and identify Russian military aircraft in international airspace over the Gulf of Finland. This was the first joint operational identification mission our air forces.

[Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪 @ros_judit]

https://t.co/YQPsJH2Dff Gracias a todo el equipo por su profesionalidad y trato exquisito @France24_es @Mariaclaguirre @NathyGQuirogaC #eldebatefrance24

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

I'd encourage everyone to read the Danish military intelligence assessment in full, and not rely on excitable social media upsums.

Here is the top line: "The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) assesses that Russia will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO, with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past. This could include destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties."

In other words, Russia will continue doing what it's already doing (terrorist attacks against hard and soft targets, cyberoperations), only more so. This is an uncontroversial assessment across Western intelligence services, so far as I've been able to determine.

DDIS continues: "At the same time, there is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia....Such a limited military attack could take the form of isolated strikes with long‑range weapons on infrastructure that is vital to the support to Ukraine. In this situation, Russia might then claim that the weapons only struck NATO territory because they were jammed by Ukraine. It could also be a so-called false flag operation, where Russia uses Ukrainian‑made drones to attack a NATO country."

The scenario envisaged here (a low but growing risk) is a plausibly deniable conventional attack by Russia. The objective would be twofold. First, to sow panic and confusion in the targeted country or countries, and encourage skepticism of the official government version of what just happened. "Maybe it was the Ukrainians." "Maybe it was an accident." "Maybe no attack took place and the deep state is trying to foment World War III."

Thirty seconds on this hellsite should be enough to convince you that counterfactual narratives would be easy enough to amplify, especially in countries with elections forthcoming. A "limited military attack" psychologically would just be a heightened form of "hybrid" war because it's designed to overwhelm and demoralize the population and make its think that supporting Ukraine just isn't worth it since those not at war are now liable to become collateral damage.

The second objective of such an attack would be to gauge NATO's response to it -- and this is key bit, because, as DDIS also states:

"Russia will likely carry out military attacks only if it assesses that such attacks will not result in a war by triggering a collective NATO military response. However, Russia is likely uncertain about what could trigger such a war. Consequently, there is a risk that Russia assesses that the NATO countries will not respond collectively, especially if Russia assesses that the United States cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a potential war against Russia." (Italics added.)

You wouldn't be wrong to detect a hint of political messaging here. (All intel services deny they do any such thing but they all do.) This is Denmark, a country that just stared down a possible U.S. invasion and annexation of Greenland, which would have meant the disintegration of NATO.

Trump has spent his entire second term (and much of his first term) doubting the Inviolability of Article V. His Pentagon has given NATO allies questionnaires to fill out to prove their worthiness as allies, while it undergoes a force posture review with ominous media leaks about what Bridge Colby and his minion might do (25,000 U.S. troops withdrawn, a scuppered U.S. base in Poland, etc.)

Now comes a frenzy of intelligence reporting across Europe about a possible Russian attack on NATO, all kickstarted by a CIA briefing delivered to the Poles, Scandinavians and Balts months ago with a warning that they're probably on their own if and when such an attack happens.

Never let a good crisis go to waste... Russia isn't sure what would trigger a war with NATO, so how might NATO make it sure? A "limited military attack" can be deterred if Washington telegraphs its intent to enforce Article V in word and deed by stating clearly and repeatedly what would constitute a casus belli in 2026 and, of course, by keeping U.S. troops in Europe.

[Scott Robertson @sarobertson_]

Former Danish MP: "There was no Chinese or Russian threat to Greenland. We've not seen a Chinese warship anywhere near Greenland for 10 years. And they have no activities, no intentions of moving in or taking over Greenland. It was really a made-up threat."

[Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪 @ros_judit]

Un breve desglose de las menciones en el nuevo acuerdo de defensa:

🇬🇱 #Groenlandia: 45 (más «Greenlandic» 8 veces) 🇺🇸 Estados Unidos: 28 🇩🇰 #Dinamarca: 18
Un claro reflejo de dónde se sitúan realmente el foco geopolítico y el interés soberano.

[Statsministeriet @Statsmin]

Aftale mellem Grønland, Danmark og USA

[Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪 @ros_judit]

A quick breakdown of mentions in the new defense agreement: 🇬🇱 #Greenland: 45 (plus "Greenlandic" 8x) 🇺🇸 United States: 28 🇩🇰 #Denmark: 18
A clear reflection of where the geopolitical spotlight—and the sovereign stake—actually sits.

[Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪 @ros_judit]

Grønlands landsstyreformand vuggede lidt nervøst fra ben til ben under talen. Et vigtigt budskab, der ville stå endnu stærkere og mere troværdigt med en helt rolig, fast grund under fødderne. 🇬🇱

[Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪 @ros_judit]

Naalakkersuisut siulittaasuat oqalugiarnermini tukkartuallappoq. Ernumanartoqarsimagunarpoq, kisianni oqaatsit pingaaruteqartut aalajaalluni nikuilluni saqqummiunneqaraangata nukittuujunerusarput 🇬🇱

[Orla Joelsen @OJoelsen]

Premier of Greenland Jens-Frederik Nielsen’s remarks at the signing ceremony for the agreement between Greenland, Denmark and the United States.

[Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪 @ros_judit]

La seguretat que busquen els EUA i l'OTAN sumada a la pluja de milions de la UE no debiliten Nuuk: multipliquen la seva capacitat de negociar. Groenlàndia sap que avui tothom la necessita, i pensa fer-se valer. 🇬🇱

[Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪 @ros_judit]

A principios de año Trump amenazaba a Groenlandia, y ahora es "hermosa", Dinamarca es un "gran reino" y tienen un "acuerdo sin precedentes". Sin precedentes, claro, si entendemos por eso una actualización diplomática común y corriente adornada con palabras grandilocuentes. 🇬🇱🇩🇰🇺🇸

[Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪 @ros_judit]

Earlier this year Trump was threatening #Greenland, and now it’s "beautiful," Denmark is a "great kingdom," and they have an "unprecedented agreement." Unprecedented, of course, meaning a standard diplomatic update repackaged with shiny buzzwords. 🇬🇱🇩🇰🇺🇸

[Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪 @ros_judit]

@OJoelsen Navigating antagonistic discourses such as 🇺🇸 / 🇩🇰 🇪🇺 Greenlandic people deserve narrative sovereignty 🇬🇱 💪🏾 very useful profile @OJoelsen

[Jim Stewartson, Decelerationist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸 @jimstewartson]

NEVER play poker with Mamdani. Holy shit this is impressive.

[Mikaa Blugeon-Mered @Mikaa_BM]

@ros_judit That is correct, yes.

This document will have to go through Folketing 🇩🇰 and Inatsisartut 🇬🇱 ratification votes. Democracy reaffirmed – meaning: the fate of Kalaallit Nunaat can't just be a business napkin agreement.

[Judit Ros D. 🇸🇪 @ros_judit]

@Mikaa_BM To recap...they make it public today then 🇩🇰 parliament has to ratify and 🇬🇱 parliament also? And then?